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| 1 | Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service显示文摘Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July(MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making. | Philip E.BETT Nicola MARTIN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Gill M.MARTIN Nicola GOLDING Joanne CAMP Peiqun ZHANG Chris D.HEWITT Leon HERMANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li REN Ying LIU Min LIU | 2020 | Journal of Meteorological Research2020，34，5： | 7 |
| 2 | The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020显示文摘During June and July of 2020,the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding.This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event,based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system.The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin,which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature(SST)and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH,and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well.We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet(EAJ).The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall.However,the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall.In observations,the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020,which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin,and favor more mei-yu rainfall.The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes.This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall,hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation. | Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE Adam ASCAIFE Philip EBETT Fei ZHENG | 2021 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2021，38，12： | 5 |
| 3 | Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall显示文摘The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements. | Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Chaofan LI Chris HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Nick DUNSTONE Doug M. SMITH Hazel E. THORNTON Riyu LU Hong-Li REN | 2018 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2018，35，8： | 3 |
| 4 | 澳大利亚的自动相关监视广播系统(ADS-B)显示文摘 | Greg Dunstone | 2005 | 空中交通管理2005，，4： | 3 |
| 5 | Factors in productiv- ity and unit cost for advanced machine guidance 显示文摘 | Jonasson S Dunston P S Ahmed K | 2002 | Journal :ff construction engineering and management2002，128，5： | 1 |
| 6 | Packing a punch: the mechanism of pore formation by cholesterol dependent cytolysins and membrane attack complex/perforin-like proteins显示文摘 | Michelle A Dunstone Rodney K Tweten | 2012 | Current Opinion in Structural Biology2012，，3： | 1 |
| 7 | Vitiligo is associated with HLA-DR4 in black patients:a preliminary report显示文摘 | Dunston GM Halder RM | 1990 | Arch Dermatol1990，126，： | 1 |
| 8 | Electron microscopic observations of the stratum corneum intercellular lipids in normal and atopic dogs显示文摘 | Inman A O Olivry T O Dunston S M | 2001 | Vet Pathol2001，38，： | 1 |
| 9 | Nail patella syndrome revisited:50 years after linkage显示文摘 | Mcintosh I Dunston JA Liu L | 2005 | Med Wieku Rozwoj2005，9，2： | 1 |
| 10 | Monorotaline pyrrole induces apoptosis in pulmonary artery endothelial cells 显示文摘 | Lame MW Dunston SK | 1998 | Toxicol Appl Pharmacol1998，151，： | 1 |
| 11 | Pefforin:structure,function,and role in human immunopathology显示文摘 | Voskoboinik I Dunstone MA Baran K | | 0，，01： | 1 |
| 12 | IL-12 plays a sig- nificant role in the apoptosis of human T cells in the absence of antigenic stimulation 显示文摘 | Fan H Walters CS Dunston GM | 2002 | Cytokine2002，19，： | 1 |
| 13 | User perspectives on mixed reality tabletop visualization for face - to - face collaborative design review 显示文摘 | Wang X Y Dunston P S | 2008 | Automation in Construction2008，17，4： | 1 |
| 14 | Crystal structure of the human T cell receptor CD3 epsilon gamma heterodimer com- plexed to the therapeutic mAb OKT3 显示文摘 | Kjer-Nielsen L Dunstone M A Kostenko L | 2004 | Proc Natl Acad Sci USA2004，101，： | 1 |
| 15 | Characterizationof TolC efflux pump proteins from Pasteurella multocida显示文摘 | Hatfaludi T Al-hasani K Dunstone M | 2008 | Antimicrob Agents Chemother2008，52，11： | 1 |
| 16 | The human LMX1B gene: transcription unit, promoter, and pathogenic mutations显示文摘 | Jennifer A. Dunston Jeanette D. Hamlington Jayshree Zaveri Elizabeth Sweeney Julie Sibbring Catherine Tran Maria Malbroux John P. O’Neill Roger Mountford Iain McIntosh | 2004 | Genomics2004，，3： | 1 |
| 17 | Perforin: structure, function, and role in human immunopathology显示文摘 | Voskoboinik I Dunstone M A Baran K A | 2010 | Immunol Rev2010，235，1： | 1 |
| 18 | IL-12 plays a significant role in apoptosis of human T cells in the absence of antigenic stimulation显示文摘 | Fan H Walters C Dunston G | 2002 | Cytokine2002，19，13： | 1 |
| 19 | Identification of Application Areas for Augmented Reality in Industrial Construction Based on Technology Suitability显示文摘 | Shin D H Dunston P S | 2008 | Automation in Construction2008，17，7： | 1 |
| 20 | The flavor of cucumbers显示文摘 | D A Fross E A Dunstone E H Zamslaw | 1962 | Food Sci1962，27，： | 1 |
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