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| 1 | 未来气候变化对鄱阳湖区土地利用变化的影响评估显示文摘为了评估未来气候变化可能对鄱阳湖区土地利用变化产生的影响,本文根据IPCC的建议,利用新近建立的基于主体的土地利用变化模拟模型,详细分析了4种气候变化情景下鄱阳湖区1985-2035年的土地利用变化过程。这4种气候变化情景分别为A1B(经济高速增长模式)、A2(区域经济多样化增长模式)、B1(引进更多清洁能源的经济增长模式)和情景4(无气候变化模式)。在这些气候变化情景中,由于耕地的农业生产潜力差异显著,农户主体的收入和他们对土地利用方式的决策也发生了相应的改变。通过对这一过程的模拟和结果分析,发现气候变化可能有利于鄱阳湖区土地利用变化向着环境友好的方向自我调整。与A1B和A2两种气候变化情景相比,B1情景对土地利用变化的影响更具环境友好性。 | 闫丹 Uwe A.Schneider Erwin Schmid 黄河清 潘理虎 Oliver Dilly | 2013 | 资源科学2013，35，11： | 9 |
| 2 | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal显示文摘The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach.A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region(latitude 26°N and 31.7°N and longitude 79°E and 90°E)from 1255 to 2011.The distribution of catalogued earthquakes,together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source zones in Nepal and the surrounding region.By using the seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion prediction relationship,peak ground accelerations(PGAs)have been calculated at bedrock level with 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years.The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07–0.16 g,0.21–0.62 g,and 0.38–1.1 g for 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years,respectively.The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution,i.e.,high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections,and low hazard in southern Nepal.The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country. | Thapa Dilli Ram Wang Guoxin | 2013 | Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration2013，12，4： | 2 |
| 3 | Time-series analysis with a hybrid Box-Jenkins ARIMA显示文摘Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation. | Dilli R Aryal 王要武 | 2004 | Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)2004，11，4： | 2 |
| 4 | Deep lamellar keratoplasty on air with lyophilised tissue显示文摘 | Chau GK Dilly SA Sheard CE | 1992 | Br J Ophthalmol1992，76，11： | 2 |
| 5 | Evaluation of iron catalyst for the Fenton-like remediation of diesel-contaminated soils显示文摘 | Dilly S E | 1996 | J Hazard Mat1996，51，： | 1 |
| 6 | Variation ofstabilizedmicrobialandbiologicallyactivecarbonandnitrogeninsoilundercontrastinglanduseandagriculturalmanagementpractices 显示文摘 | DILLY O BLUME H P SEHY U etal | 2003 | Chemosphere2003，52，： | 1 |
| 7 | The efficacy of apparent diffusioncoefficient value calculation in differentiation between malignantand benign thyroid nodules显示文摘 | Dilli A Ayaz UY Cakir E | 2012 | Clin Imaging2012，36，： | 1 |
| 8 | Serum Thyroid Hormone Levels in Preterm Infants Born before 33 Weeks of Gestation and Association of Transient Hypothyroxinemia with Postnatal Characteristics显示文摘 | Dilek Dilli ?. Suna O?uz Nesibe And?ran U?ur Dilmen ümran Büyükka?n?c? | 2010 | Journal of Pediatric Endocrinology and Metabolism2010，，9： | 1 |
| 9 | Local Ca2 + signaling and EC coupling in heart: Ca2 + sparks and the regulation ofi transient 显示文摘 | Guatimosim S Dilly K | 2002 | J Mol Cell Cardiol2002，34，： | 1 |
| 10 | Ratios between estimates of microbial biomasds content and microbial activity in soils显示文摘 | DILLY O MUNCH J C | 1998 | Biol Fertil Soils1998，27，： | 1 |
| 11 | Potential errors in the estimation of coronary arterial stenosis from clinical arteriography with reference to the shape of the coronary arterial lumen显示文摘 | Thomas AC Davies MJ Dilly S | | 0，，： | 1 |
| 12 | Indicators for evaluating soil quality显示文摘 | Schloter M Dilly O Munch JC | 2003 | Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment2003，98，： | 1 |
| 13 | NFATc3-dependent loss of Ito gra- dient across the left ventricular wall during chronic beta adrenergic stimulation 显示文摘 | Rossow CF Dilly KW Yuan C | 2009 | J Mol Cell Cardiol2009，46，2： | 1 |
| 14 | Indicators for evaluating soil quality显示文摘 | Schloter M Dilly 0 Munch J C | 2003 | Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment2003，98，： | 1 |
| 15 | Major ion chemistry of the Ganga-Brahmaputra river system;weathering processes and fluxes to the Bay of Bengal显示文摘 | Satin M M Krishnaswami S Dilli K Somayajulu B L K Moore W S | 1989 | Geochim Cosmoehim Acta1989，53，5： | 1 |
| 16 | Soil microbial activities in Luvisols and Anthrosols during 9 years of region-typical tillage and fertilisation practices in northern Germany显示文摘 | Oliver Dilly Hans-Peter Blume Jean Charles Munch | 2003 | Biogeochemistry2003，，3： | 1 |
| 17 | Indicators for evaluating soil quality 显示文摘 | Schloter M Dilly O Munch J C | 2003 | Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment2003，98，1： | 1 |
| 18 | A case of nonimmune hydrops fetalis caused by homozygous a-thalassemia显示文摘 | Akar M Dilli D Dilmen U | 2013 | Turk J Haematol2013，30，1： | 1 |
| 19 | Predictive values of neutrophil CD64 expression compared with interleukin- 6 and C-reactive protein in early diagnosis of neonatal sepsis显示文摘 | Dilli D Oguz S Dilmen U | 2010 | J Clin Lab Anal2010，24，6： | 1 |
| 20 | Major ion chemistry of the Ganga - Brahmaputra river system-weathering processes and flu- xes to the bay of Bengal 显示文摘 | Satin M M Krishnaswami S Dilli K | 1989 | Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta1989，53，5： | 1 |
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