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| 1 | 拥抱绿色发展新范式:中国碳中和政策框架研究显示文摘中国以及全球范围的碳中和共识与行动标志着工业革命后形成的传统发展范式逐渐落幕,一个新的绿色发展范式开始兴起。本文分析工业革命以来旧有发展范式的不可持续性,揭示绿色发展范式在发展目的、发展内容、发展方式以及发展普适性上,是对传统发展范式的一次深刻革命。在新的绿色发展范式框架下,本文重新思考经济学的基本问题如价值理论、财富的内涵和测度,以及个人和集体行为等,分析新发展范式转变对于重塑中国重要经济部门和系统的政策含义,并讨论了转型过程中体制机制、金融和技术创新等方面的重要保障,以及如何实现协调和平衡的转型。本文同时提出中国如何引领世界碳中和治理机制建设,并讨论了同世界实现绿色合作共赢的机遇和政策。 | 朱民 Nicholas Stern Joseph E.Stiglitz 刘世锦 张永生 李俊峰 Cameron Hepburn | 2023 | 世界经济2023，46，3： | 17 |
| 2 | The policy-driven peak and reduction of China's carbon emissions显示文摘Pursuant to the Paris Agreement,China committed itself to peak its carbon emissions by around 2030 and to increase the non-fossil share ofprimary energy to 20%at the same time.The government has supported the international agreement by setting and strengthening the domesticpolicy targets for an earlier peak and faster reduction,aiming to contain the average global temperature increase to well below 2℃.We developa Kaya Inequality method to assess the time of peak and pace of reduction of China's energy-related CO2emissions based on the national energypolicy targets for 2030.We find that,despite the minor fluctuations,the current plateau essentially represents the peak emissions and should entera phase of steady decline by around 2025,given current trends in energy consumption and decarbonization.Such developments would beconsistent with the strengthened national policy target to achieve 50%of renewable power generation by 2030.However,the basic policy targetsea 20%share of non-fossil energy and 6 Gtce in total energy consumption by 2030ewould be insufficient to peak carbon emissions by around 2030.The synergy and interplay between domestic policy target setting and international climate commitments shed light on the need to elevatenational climate ambitions under the Paris Agreement and beyond. | QI Ye Nicholas STERN HE Jian-Kun LU Jia-Qi LIU Tian-Le David KING WU Tong | 2020 | Advances in Climate Change Research2020，11，2： | 10 |
| 3 | Endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation with sphincterotomy is safe and effective for biliary stone removal independent of timing and size of sphincterotomy显示文摘AIM To describe the efficacy and safety of endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation(EPLBD) in the management of bile duct stones in a Western population. METHODS Data was collected from the endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP) and Radiology electronic database along with a review of case notes over a period of six years from 1 st August 2009 to 31 st July 2015 and incorporated into Microsoft excel. Statistical analyses were performed using Med Calc for Windows,version 12.5(Med Calc Software,Ostend,Belgium). Simple statistical applications were applied in order to determine whether significant differences exist in comparison groups. We initially used simple proportions to describe the study populations. Furthermore,we used chi-square test to compare proportions and categorical variables. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U-test was applied in order to compare continuous variables. All comparisons were deemed to be statistically significant if P values were less than 0.05.RESULTS EPLBD was performed in 229 patients(46 females) with mean age of 68 ± 14.3 years. 115/229(50%) patients had failed duct clearance at previous ERCP referred from elsewhere with standard techniques. Duct clearance at the Index* ERCP(1 st ERCP at our centre) was 72.5%. Final duct clearance rate was 98%. EPLBD after fresh sphincterotomy was performed in 81(35.4%). Median balloon size was 13.5 mm(10-18). In addition to EPLBD,per-oral cholangioscopy(POC) and electrohydraulic lithotripsy(EHL) was performed in 35(15%) patients at index* ERCP. 63(27.5%) required repeat ERCP for stone clearance. 28(44.5%) required POC and EHL and 11(17.4%) had repeat EPLBD for complete duct clearance. Larger stone size(12.4 mm vs 17.4 mm,P < 0.000001),multiple stones(2,range(1-13) vs 3,range(1-12),P < 0.006) and dilated common bile duct(CBD)(12.4 mm vs 18.3 mm,P < 0.001) were significant predictors of failed duct clearance at index ERCP. 47 patients(20%) had ampullary or peri-ampullary diverticula. Procedure related adverse events included 2 cases of bleeding and pancreatitis(0.87%) each.CONCLUSION EPLBD is a safe and effective technique for CBDS removal. There is no difference in outcomes whether it is performed at the time of sphincterotomy or at a later procedure or whether there is a full or limited sphincterotomy. | Usman Iqbal Aujla Nimzing Ladep Laura Dwyer Stephen Hood Nicholas Stern Richard Sturgess | 2017 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2017，23，48： | 8 |
| 4 | Towards carbon neutrality and China's 14th Five-Year Plan: Clean energy transition, sustainable urban development, and investment priorities显示文摘China's 14th Five-Year Plan,for the period 2021e25,presents a real opportunity for China to link its longterm climate goals with its short-to medium-term social and economic development plans.China's recent commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 has set a clear direction for its economy,but requires ratcheting up ambition on its near-term climate policy.Against this background,this paper discusses major action areas for China's 14th Five-Year Plan after COVID-19,especially focusing on three aspects:the energy transition,a new type of sustainable urban development,and investment priorities.China's role in the world is now of a magnitude that makes its actions in the immediate future critical to how the world goes forward.This decade,2021e2030,is of fundamental importance to human history.If society locks in dirty and high-carbon capital,it raises profound risks of irreversible damage to the world's climate.It is crucial for China to peak its emissions in the 14th Five-Year Plan(by 2025),making the transition earlier and cheaper,enhancing its international competitiveness in growing new markets and setting a strong example for the world.The benefits for China and the world as a whole could be immense. | Cameron Hepburn Ye Qi Nicholas Stern Bob Ward Chunping Xie Dimitri Zenghelis | 2021 | Environmental Science and Ecotechnology2021，，4： | 4 |
| 5 | Portal vein cannulation:An uncommon complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography显示文摘Portal vein cannulation is a rare complication of endo-scopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP).It has been reported that it usually occurs after endo-scopic sphincterotomy,whereas in cases without prior sphincterotomy,the presence of portobiliary fistulas has been shown.Here,we present a case in which cannulation of the portal vein occurred despite careful wire-guided cannulation and the absence of sphinc-terotomy.Although fatal cases of cerebral and pulmo-nary air and/or bile embolism have been reported in patients with combined portal and hepatic vein trauma after ERCP and sphincterotomy,isolated portal vein cannulation,as in the current case,does not usu-ally result in mortality or serious morbidity.However,awareness of this rare complication is important so that no further intervention is performed. | Evangelos Kalaitzakis Nicholas Stern Richard Sturgess | 2011 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2011，17，46： | 2 |
| 6 | China’s Economic Development in the New Era: Challenges and Paths显示文摘China’s economy has seen rapid development ever since its reform and opening-up strategy was launched in 1978.Strong economic expansion over the past four decades has taken China from low-income to upper-middle-income status.Looking back at the transformation that China has made,however,we must recognise that the old growth story is coming to an end.The phase of development driven by investment in physical capital will be increasingly supplanted by investment in assets such as knowledge and social capital as well as investment in preservation of natural capital.Recognising the challenges that China is facing,with this paper we aim to offer an approach to growth and development that could spell out a new development strategy for the country as the 21st century progresses.China will focus on the technologies with high-quality growth prospects:modern service sectors,including health,education,transport,communications and IT,artificial intelligence,finance,logistics,sustainable urban infrastructure and new food and land-use systems.With today’s technologies,China can help the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries embark on a much more sustainable,more efficient and greener form of development,avoiding historical problems of pollution and congestion,with China itself moving up the value chain at the same time. | Cameron Hepburn Nicholas Stern Chunping Xie Dimitri Zenghelis | 2022 | China Finance and Economic Review2022，11，2： | 1 |
| 7 | 2006 Stern Review 显示文摘 | Nicholas Stern | 2006 | Economic Costs of Climate Change2006，，10： | 1 |
| 8 | Taxation and development显示文摘 | Burgess Robin Nicholas Stern | 1993 | Journal of E- conomic Literature1993，31，2： | 1 |
| 9 | Towards A Dynamic Public Economics 显示文摘 | Nicholas Stern | 2002 | Journal of Public Economies2002，，3： | 1 |
| 10 | The Economics of Climate Change显示文摘 | NICHOLAS STERN | | 0，，98： | 1 |
| 11 | UrbanizationIncome Inequalities in China:Evidence fromHousehold Survey Data0显示文摘 | Hussain Arthur Peter Lanjouw and Nicholas Stern | 2008 | World development2008，57，： | 1 |
| 12 | Taxation and De- velopment 显示文摘 | Robin Burgess Nicholas Stern | 1993 | Journal of Economic Literature1993，31，： | 1 |
| 13 | Income Inequalities in China: Evidence from Household Survey Data显示文摘 | Athar Hussain Lanjouw Peter and Stern Nicholas | 1994 | World Development1994，22，12： | 1 |
| 14 | Music-based memory enhance- ment in Alzheimer's Disease : Promise and limitations 显示文摘 | Nicholas R Stern S Rebecca G | 2012 | Neuropsy- chologia2012，，50： | 1 |
| 15 | Income inequalities in China: evidence from household survey data显示文摘 | Athar Hussain Peter Lanjouw Nicholas Stern | 1994 | World Development1994，22，12： | 1 |
| 16 | Income Inequalities in China:Evidence from Household Survey Data显示文摘 | Athar Hussain Peter Lanjouw and Nicholas Stern | 1994 | World Development1994，22，12： | 1 |
| 17 | the economics of development: a survey 显示文摘 | Nicholas Stern | 1989 | The Economic Journal1989，99，397： | 1 |
| 18 | The Theory of Reform and Indian Indirect Taxes 显示文摘 | Ahmad Ehtisham and Nicholas Stern | 1984 | Journal of Public Economics1984，25，3： | 1 |
| 19 | 气候变化的代价 | Nicholas Stern | 2007 | 国际原子能机构通报2007，0，1： | 1 |
| 20 | Towards a Dynamic Public Economics 显示文摘 | Nicholas Stern | 2002 | Journal of Public Economics2002，，3： | 1 |
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