Reviewing the Oceanic Nino Index(ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Nino’s Impacts

查看全文 作　　者：Michael [1]H.Glantz;Ivan [1,2]J.Ramirez

机构地区：[1]Consortium for Capacity Building/INSTAAR.University of Colorado,Boulder,CO 80309,USA;[2]Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences,University of Colorado Denver,Denver,CO 80204,USA

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》索引2020年第11卷第3期,共10页

基　　金：made possible through the support provided by the Office of U.S.Foreign Disaster Assistance;Bureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance;U.S.Agency for International Development。 摘　　要：NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts. 关键词：ADVISORY Disasters Early warning El Nino El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO Hydrometeorological hazards Oceanic Nino Index ONI

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Reviewing the Oceanic Nino Index(ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Nino’s Impacts

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