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| 1 | SARS流行病的SEIR动力学模型及其参数辨识显示文摘建立了带有潜伏期及终身免疫的SARS流行病的SEIR动力学模型.根据部分国家或地区的SARS疫情数据,对模型中的参数进行了参数辨识,数值结果表明模型与实际疫情是比较吻合的,并得到了一个SARS流行病的带形控制区域.论证了系统的流不变性和弱不变性等数学性质. | 徐恭贤 冯恩民 王宗涛 谭欣欣 修志龙 | 2005 | 黑龙江大学自然科学学报2005，22，4： | 18 |
| 2 | 传染病模型在SARS防制中的应用显示文摘 | 韩晓娜 李承毅 方立群 曹务春 | 2005 | 中华流行病学杂志2005，26，3： | 6 |
| 3 | Integration of small world networks with multi-agent systems for simulating epidemic spatiotemporal transmission显示文摘This study proposes an integrated model based on small world network (SWN) and multi-agent system (MAS) for simulating epidemic spatiotemporal transmission. In this model, MAS represents the process of spatiotemporal interactions among individuals, and SWN describes the social relation network among agents. The model is composed of agent attribute definitions, agent movement rules, neighborhoods, construction of social relation network among agents and state transition rules. The construction of social relation network and agent state transition rules is essential for implementing the proposed model. The decay effects of infection 'memory', distance and social relation between agents are introduced into the model, which are unavailable in traditional models. The proposed model is used to simulate the transmission process of flu in Guangzhou City based on the swarm software platform. The integration model has better performance than the traditional SEIR model and the pure MAS based epidemic model. This model has been applied to the simulation of the transmission of epidemics in real geographical environment. The simulation can provide useful information for the understanding, prediction and control of the transmission of epidemics. | LIU Tao LI Xia LIU XiaoPing | 2010 | Chinese Science Bulletin2010，55，13： | 5 |
| 4 | Spatio-temporal evolution of Beijing 2003 SARS epidemic显示文摘Studying spatio-temporal evolution of epidemics can uncover important aspects of interaction among people, infectious diseases, and the environment, providing useful insights and modeling support to facilitate public health response and possibly prevention measures. This paper presents an empirical spatio-temporal analysis of epidemiological data concerning 2321 SARS-infected patients in Beijing in 2003. We mapped the SARS morbidity data with the spatial data resolution at the level of street and township. Two smoothing methods, Bayesian adjustment and spatial smoothing, were applied to identify the spatial risks and spatial transmission trends. Furthermore, we explored various spatial patterns and spatio-temporal evolution of Beijing 2003 SARS epidemic using spatial statistics such as Moran’s I and LISA. Part of this study is targeted at evaluating the effectiveness of public health control measures implemented during the SARS epidemic. The main findings are as follows. (1) The diffusion speed of SARS in the northwest-southeast direction is weaker than that in northeast-southwest direction. (2) SARS’s spread risk is positively spatially associated and the strength of this spatial association has experienced changes from weak to strong and then back to weak during the lifetime of the Beijing SARS epidemic. (3) Two spatial clusters of disease cases are identified: one in the city center and the other in the eastern suburban area. These two clusters followed different evolutionary paths but interacted with each other as well. (4) Although the government missed the opportunity to contain the early outbreak of SARS in March 2003, the response strategies implemented after the mid of April were effective. These response measures not only controlled the growth of the disease cases, but also mitigated the spatial diffusion. | CAO ZhiDong ZENG DaJun ZHENG XiaoLong WANG QuanYi WANG FeiYue WANG JinFeng WANG XiaoLi | 2010 | Science China Earth Sciences2010，53，7： | 5 |
| 5 | 基于时滞动力学模型对钻石公主号邮轮疫情的分析显示文摘2019年末以来,新型冠状病毒肺炎迅速蔓延的疫情引发了全球关注.文献[5-6]提出了一类时滞动力学系统的新冠肺炎传播模型用以描述疫情的发展趋势.文献[7]在此基础上,结合CCDC统计数据,提出了一类基于CCDC统计数据的随机时滞动力学模型.本文将使用以上两类模型研究分析'钻石公主号'邮轮的疫情发展.基于日本厚生劳动省公布的数据,本文准确反演出模型参数,进而有效模拟当前疫情的发展,并预测疫情未来的趋势,发现在疫情爆发初期基本再生数R0(t)较大,而后随着防控措施加强而逐渐减小;约在2月下旬,累计确诊人数增长速度放缓,在3月上旬,累计确诊人数趋于稳定,即无新增确诊人数,疫情得到有效控制;最终累计确诊人数对隔离率变化敏感,隔离率升高,最终累计确诊人数将有显著下降.针对传染率较高、隔离率较低的问题,本文建议日本政府进一步加强防控措施,抑制疫情的大规模爆发. | 罗心悦 邵年 程晋 陈文斌 | 2020 | 数学建模及其应用2020，9，1： | 5 |
| 6 | Influenza A (H1N1) transmission by road traffic between cities and towns显示文摘Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns. The results showed that areas along the highways and road intersections had a higher incidence rate than other areas. Expressways and county roads played an important role in the rapid development stage and the epidemic peak, respectively, and intercity bus stations showed a high risk of disease transmission. The model simulates the intensity and center of disease outbreaks in cities and towns, and provides a more complete simulation of the disease spatiotemporal process than other models. | XIAO Hong TIAN HuaiYu ZHAO Jian ZHANG XiXing LI YaPin LIU Yi LIU RuChun CHEN TianMu | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，24： | 4 |
| 7 | SARS传播的研究显示文摘本文结合附件一所给的模型,对它提出的半模拟循环计算的方法进行了检验,得出该模型的优点在于形式简单,模拟的精确度较高,K值的改变体现出了其合理性,同时指出了它的主要缺点在于过分依赖数据和不具有长远的预测性。对于问题2,我们提出了(1)微分差分方程组合模型(2)基于低通滤波理论的系统控制模型(3)基于神经网络的系统模型(4)基于分支过程(Branching Pro-cess)的Monte Carlo仿真模型四种具有不同核心思想的模型。在模型2中,通过解析求解我们得出了北京SARS持续期为99天及'控制时间越早越好'、'SARS传染病不可能周期性复发'等结论。对于问题3,我们受到经济学中'效用函数'的思想的启发,引入了三个不同的影响函数并提出了'旅游人次影响模型'。最终得出在SARS影响下北京市将少接待海外游客138.211万人次。最后,我们给出了发表到报刊上的短文。 | 肖红江 吴彤 李名科 贺祖国 | 2003 | 工程数学学报2003，20，7： | 4 |
| 8 | Experimental investigation of integrated air purifying technology for bioaerosol removal and inactivation in central air-conditioning system显示文摘In this research, high voltage static electricity and ultraviolet technologies were integrated to an air purifying device which can be used to trap and kill airborne bacteria and viruses in central air-conditioning systems. An experimental platform was built to mimic the central air system, in which the efficacy of the newly built device was examined. In addition to the standard physical and chemical tests, bacteriophages were used to simulate airborne viruses in the experimental system. The bacteriophage suspension was aerosolized into the air with ultrasonic wave atomization.The result showed that more than 86% removal efficiency of micro-particles (<10 micron in diameter) were removed after the device was in operation in a building and more than 95% of bacteriophages in the experimental system. It is concluded that the integrated air purifier is suitable for controlling air quality and preventing virus transmission through the central air system. | ZHENGXiaohong LIKejun WANGRuzhu ZHAOLiping Lisa.X.Xu CHENYazhu JINXinqiao GUBo BAIJingfeng LIUHongmin YEXiaojiang | 2004 | Chinese Science Bulletin2004，49，3： | 0 |
| 9 | Spatial-temporal characteristics of epidemic spread in-out flow——Using SARS epidemic in Beijing as a case study显示文摘For better detecting the spatial-temporal change mode of individual susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered epidemic progress and the characteristics of information/material flow in the epidemic spread network between regions,the epidemic spread mechanism of virus input and output was explored based on individuals and spatial regions.Three typical spatial information parameters including working unit/address,onset location and reporting unit were selected and SARS epidemic spread in-out flow in Beijing was defined based on the SARS epidemiological investigation data in China from 2002 to 2003 while its epidemiological characteristics were discussed.Furthermore,by the methods of spatial-temporal statistical analysis and network characteristic analysis,spatial-temporal high-risk hotspots and network structure characteristics of Beijing outer in-out flow were explored,and spatial autocorrelation/heterogeneity,spatial-temporal evolutive rules and structure characteristics of the spread network of Beijing inner in-out flow were comprehensively analyzed.The results show that(1)The outer input flow of SARS epidemic in Beijing concentrated on Shanxi and Guangdong provinces,but the outer output flow was disperse and mainly includes several north provinces such as Guangdong and Shandong.And the control measurement should focus on the early and interim progress of SARS breakout.(2)The inner output cases had significant positive autocorrelative characteristics in the whole studied region,and the high-risk population was young and middle-aged people with ages from 20 to 60 and occupations of medicine and civilian labourer.(3)The downtown districts were main high-risk hotspots of SARS epidemic in Beijing,the northwest suburban districts/counties were secondary high-risk hotspots,and northeast suburban areas were relatively safe.(4)The district/county nodes in inner spread network showed small-world characteristics and information/material flow had notable heterogeneity.The suburban Tongzhou and Changping districts were the underlying high-risk regions,and several suburban districts such as Shunyi and Huairou were the relatively low-risk safe regions as they carried out minority information/material flow.The exploration and analysis based on epidemic spread in-out flow help better detect and discover the potential spatial-temporal evolutive rules and characteristics of SARS epidemic,and provide a more effective theoretical basis for emergency/control measurements and decision-making. | HU BiSong GONG JianHua ZHOU JiePing SUN Jun YANG LiYang XIA Yu Abdoul Nasser IBRAHIM | 2013 | Science China Earth Sciences2013，56，8： | 0 |
| 10 | Exploring the epidemic transmission network of SARS in-out flow in China's Mainland显示文摘The changing spatiotemporal patterns of the individual susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered epidemic process and the interactions of information/material flows between regions,along with the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) epidemiological investigation data in China's Mainland,including three typical locations of individuals(working unit/home address,onset location and reporting unit),are used to define the in-out flow of the SARS epidemic spread.Moreover,the input/output transmission networks of the SARS epidemic are built according to the definition of in-out flow.The spatiotemporal distribution of the SARS in-out flow,spatial distribution and temporal change of node characteristic parameters,and the structural characteristics of the SARS transmission networks are comprehensively and systematically explored.The results show that(1) Beijing and Guangdong had the highest risk of self-spread and output cases,and prevention/control measures directed toward self-spread cases in Beijing should have focused on the later period of the SARS epidemic;(2) the SARS transmission networks in China's Mainland had significant clustering characteristics,with two clustering areas of output cases centered in Beijing and Guangdong;(3) Guangdong was the original source of the SARS epidemic,and while the infected cases of most other provinces occurred mainly during the early period,there was no significant spread to the surrounding provinces;in contrast,although the input/output interactions between Beijing and the other provinces countrywide began during the mid-late epidemic period,SARS in Beijing showed a significant capacity for spatial spreading;(4) Guangdong had a significant range of spatial spreading throughout the entire epidemic period,while Beijing and its surrounding provinces formed a separate,significant range of high-risk spreading during the mid-late period;especially in late period,the influence range of Beijing's neighboring provinces,such as Hebei,was even slightly larger than that of Beijing;and(5) the input network had a low-intensity spread capacity and middle-level influence range,while the output network had an extensive high-intensity spread capacity and influence range that covered almost the entire country,and this spread and influence indicated that significant clustering characteristics increased gradually.This analysis of the epidemic in-out flow and its corresponding transmission network helps reveal the potential spatiotemporal characteristics and evolvement mechanism of the SARS epidemic and provides more effective theoretical support for prevention and control measures. | HU BiSong GONG JianHua SUN Jun ZHOU JiePing | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，15： | 0 |
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