| 2 | Modelling the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission from mobility maps显示文摘The world has faced the COVID-19 pandemic for over two years now,and it is time to revisit the lessons learned from lockdown measures for theoretical and practical epidemiological improvements.The interlink between these measures and the resulting change in mobility(a predictor of the disease transmission contact rate)is uncertain.We thus propose a new method for assessing the efficacy of various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPI)and examine the aptness of incorporating mobility data for epidemiological modelling.Facebook mobility maps for the United Arab Emirates are used as input datasets from the first infection in the country to mid-Oct 2020.Dataset was limited to the pre-vaccination period as this paper focuses on assessing the different NPIs at an early epidemic stage when no vaccines are available and NPIs are the only way to reduce the reproduction number(R_(0)).We developed a travel network density parameterβ_(t)to provide an estimate of NPI impact on mobility patterns.Given the infection-fatality ratio and time lag(onset-to-death),a Bayesian probabilistic model is adapted to calculate the change in epidemic development withβt.Results showed that the change inβ_(t)clearly impacted R_(0).The three lockdowns strongly affected the growth of transmission rate and collectively reduced R_(0)by 78%before the restrictions were eased.The model forecasted daily infections and deaths by 2%and 3%fractional errors.It also projected what-if scenarios for different implementation protocols of each NPI.The developed model can be applied to identify the most efficient NPIs for confronting new COVID-19 waves and the spread of variants,as well as for future pandemics. | Umair Hasan Hamad Al Jassmi Abdessamad Tridane Anderson Stanciole Farida Al-Hosani Bashir Aden | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，3： | 0 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员