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| 1 | Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM显示文摘The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2≈710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2≈540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10°-60°N, 55°-155°) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do- main While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ~ 30°N and~10% decreases south of ~ 30°N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the | Aiguo Dai, G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and T.M.L. Wigley National Center for Atmospheric Research P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 ) Email: adai@ ucar. edu The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the U S National Science Foundation. | 2001 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2001，18，5： | 9 |
| 2 | AN OVERVIEW OF CMIP5 AND THE EXPERIMENT DESIGN显示文摘 | Taylor Karl E Stouffer Ronald J Meehl Gerald A | 2012 | EN2012，，4： | 3 |
| 3 | An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: observations, socio-economic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections显示文摘 | Meehl G A Karl T Easterling D R | 2000 | Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society2000，81，3： | 1 |
| 4 | The coupled model intercomparison project(CMIP)显示文摘 | MEEHL G A BOER G J COVEY C | 2000 | Bull Amer Meteor Soc2000，81，： | 1 |
| 5 | The WCRP CMIP3 Mutimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research 显示文摘 | MEEHL G CURT C THOMAS D | 2007 | BullAmer Meteor Soc2007，88，9： | 1 |
| 6 | More intense,more frequent,and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century显示文摘 | Meehl G A Tebaldi C | 2004 | Science2004，305，： | 1 |
| 7 | Cliometric Metatheo- ry:The Actuarial Approach to Em- pirical,History-based Philosophy of Science 显示文摘 | Meehl Paul E | 1992 | Psychological Reports1992，，2： | 1 |
| 8 | Cli- mate exremes: Obervations, modeling, and impacts 显示文摘 | Easterling D R Meehl G A Parmesan C | 2000 | Science2000，289，： | 1 |
| 9 | Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and South Asian monsoon variability显示文摘 | Meehl G A | 1994 | Science1994，266，： | 1 |
| 10 | Random amplified polymorphic DNA(RAPD) sequences as markers for canine genetic studies 显示文摘 | Olivier M Meehl M A Lust G | 1999 | Heredity1999，90，1： | 1 |
| 11 | An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design 显示文摘 | Taylor K E Stouffer R J Meehl G A | 2012 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society2012，93，4： | 1 |
| 12 | Changes in frost days in simulations of twenty first century climate显示文摘 | Meehl G A Tebaldi C Nychka D | 2004 | Climate Dynamics2004，，23： | 1 |
| 13 | Indian monsoon GCM sensitivity experiments testing tropospheric biennial oscillation transition conditions 显示文摘 | MEEHL G A ARBLASTER J M | 2002 | J Climate2002，15，9： | 1 |
| 14 | South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration显示文摘 | Meehl G A Washington W M | 1993 | Science1993，260，： | 1 |
| 15 | Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3显示文摘 | MEEHL G A WASHINGTON W M | 2006 | J Climate2006，19，11： | 1 |
| 16 | The Asian Monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the Indian ocean zonal mode in the NCAR CSM显示文摘 | LOSCHIGG J MEEHL G A WEBSTER P J | 2003 | J Chmate2003，16，11： | 1 |
| 17 | Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation显示文摘 | Meehl G A Arblaster J M | 2003 | Clim Dyn2003，21，： | 1 |
| 18 | CO2 climate sensitivity and snow-sea-ice albedo parameterization in an atmospheric GCM coupled to a mixed layer ocean model显示文摘 | Meehl G A Washington W M | 1990 | Climate Change1990，16，： | 1 |
| 19 | Combi- nations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-cen- tury climate 显示文摘 | Meehl G A Washington W M Ammann C M | 2004 | Journal of Climate2004，17，： | 1 |
| 20 | A comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representations显示文摘 | Johannes Feddema Keith Oleson Gordon Bonan Linda Mearns Warren Washington Gerald Meehl Douglas Nychka | 2005 | Climate Dynamics2005，，6： | 1 |
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