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| 1 | Coordinating an Extended Warranty Supply Chain under Increasing,Constant and Decreasing Product Failure Rates显示文摘A product typically exhibits three different failure rates across its lifetime:increasing,decreasing,or constant.This paper studies how the characteristics of failure rate impact the supply chain coordination for an extended warranty program involving a manufacturer and a retailer.A two-stage Stackelberg game is utilized to model the interaction between these two players.Two extended warranty channel structures are compared depending on whether the manufacturer or the retailer offers the warranty service.The analysis shows that the failure rate trend during the warranty period has different effects on the coordination of the service supply chain.When a product has an increasing or constant failure rate,the optimal length of extended warranty offered by the retailer is longer than that of the manufacturer,while the optimal length is shorter for a product with a decreasing failure rate.If a product during the warranty coverage has an increasing or constant failure rate,a longer extended warranty period will motivate customers to buy the product without the warranty,whereas more customers will buy both the product and the warranty if the product experiences a decreasing failure rate.It is concluded that,if the manufacturer and the retailer incur the same warranty service cost,the total profit in the supply chain is higher when the manufacturer offers the extended warranty.From the game participants'perspective,the one which sells the extended warranty will obtain more profit. | Yuwen Chen Jin Qin Tongdan Jin Yating Chen | 2020 | Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering2020，29，5： | 3 |
| 2 | Item-level Forecasting for E-commerce Demand with High-dimensional Data Using a Two-stage Feature Selection Algorithm显示文摘With the rapid development of information technology and fast growth of Internet users,e-commerce nowadays is facing complex business environment and accumulating large-volume and highdimensional data.This brings two challenges for demand forecasting.First,e-merchants need to find appropriate approaches to leverage the large amount of data and extract forecast features to capture various factors affecting the demand.Second,they need to efficiently identify the most important features to improve the forecast accuracy and better understand the key drivers for demand changes.To solve these challenges,this study conducts a multi-dimensional feature engineering by constructing five feature categories including historical demand,price,page view,reviews,and competition for e-commerce demand forecasting on item-level.We then propose a two-stage random forest-based feature selection algorithm to effectively identify the important features from the high-dimensional feature set and avoid overfittlng.We test our proposed algorithm with a large-scale dataset from the largest e-commerce platform in China.The numerical results from 21,111 items and 109 million sales observations show that our proposed random forest-based forecasting framework with a two-stage feature selection algorithm delivers 11.58%,5.81%and 3.68%forecast accuracy improvement,compared with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA),Random Forecast,and Random Forecast with one-stage feature selection approach,respectively,which are widely used in literature and industry.This study provides a useful tool for the practitioners to forecast demands and sheds lights on the B2C e-commerce operations management. | Hongyan Dai Qin Xiao Nina Yan Xun Xu Tingting Tong | 2022 | Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering2022，31，2： | 1 |
| 3 | 考虑经济相关性的复杂二维保修装备组合维修策略显示文摘针对保修期内孤立地对各单部件进行维修增加装备保修费用的问题,结合复杂装备的二维保修现状,以保修期内的保修费用为主要定量化分析指标,以单部件二维预防性维修费用模型为基础,将研究对象由单部件系统拓展到包含串联多部件系统的复杂装备。引入预防性维修基准间隔期,采用组合维修的方法,将各单部件预防性维修工作组合优化,建立了多部件系统二维预防性组合维修费用模型。最后,实例分析验证了该方法的可行性,可为二维预防性维修服务下多部件系统组合维修策略的制订提供科学依据与定量化分析方法。 | 董恩志 程中华 王荣财 | 2022 | 系统工程与电子技术2022，44，7： | 0 |
| 4 | 基于二维保修数据的汽车索赔及保修费用预测方法显示文摘为了提高汽车索赔率预测精度并准确预测车企在未来时段的保修费用,考虑二维保修数据的删失特性和汽车的过保情形,提出了基于在保率修正的汽车索赔率计算方法。鉴于汽车保修时零件维修和更换两种模式下保修费用的差异,提出了基于索赔率和维修更换率的保修费用预测方法。结合某品牌汽车的实际二维保修数据,预测了车企未来一个季度的保修费用。结果表明:预测的保修费用与实际保修费用的相对误差在6.5%以内;相较于不考虑汽车在保率的方法,所提保修费用预测方法的预测精度提高了4.5%以上,可以为车企保修策略制定、产品定价及保修准备金规划等提供支撑。 | 庞欢 石东阳 宫政 刘敬一 | 2023 | 汽车安全与节能学报2023，14，3： | 0 |
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