|
|
|
题名
|
作者
|
年代
|
出处
|
被引量
|
| 1 | 2019年11月西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数异常偏多的成因分析显示文摘基于1979—2019年NCEP-DOE再分析资料、中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集和HadISST全球海温资料等,研究了2019年11月西北太平洋TC生成频数异常偏多的可能原因。结果表明:2019年11月西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)强度偏强、脊线偏北,其南侧偏东气流与越赤道气流交汇形成的西北太平洋热带辐合带偏强偏北、向东延伸,为TC生成创造了低层强的辐合、高层强的辐散、小的风速垂直切变以及对流层中层充足的水汽等有利的大尺度环境条件,导致TC生成频次异常偏多、生成位置偏北偏东。采用EOF方法进行分析,发现11月东亚大槽年际变化的第二模态为南北反位相型分布,对应的第二特征向量(PC2)与WPSH脊线指数具有高度一致性,且与同期西北太平洋上空TC生成频数呈显著的正相关关系。即当11月东亚大槽北部加深而南部变浅时,对应WPSH脊线偏北,TC生成频数偏多,表明深秋季节西风带槽脊活动对西北太平洋TC生成有一定的调制作用。进一步的诊断分析揭示了北太平洋海温异常可能是造成东亚大槽经向偶极子型变异的重要因子。 | 周群 黄焕卿 张润宇 邓小花 | 2021 | 海洋预报2021，38，1： | 2 |
| 2 | Unstable relationship between spring NAO and summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific显示文摘The present study reveals the fact that the relationship between the spring(April–May)North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and the following summer(June–September)tropical cyclone(TC)genesis frequency over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the period of 1950–2018 was not stationary.It is shown that the relationship between the two has experienced a pronounced interdecadal shift,being weak and insignificant before yet strong and statistically significant after the early 1980 s.Next we compare the spring NAO associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions,sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,and atmospheric circulation processes between the two subperiods of 1954–1976 and 1996–2018,so as to illucidate the possible mechanism for this interdecadal variation in the NAO-TC connection.During the latter epoch,when the spring NAO was positive,enhanced low-level vorticity,reduced vertical zonal wind shear,intensified vertical velocity and increased middle-level relative humidity were present over the WNP in the summer,which is conducive to the genesis of WNP TCs.When the spring NAO is negative,the dynamic and thermodynamic factors are disadvantageous for the summertime TC formation and development over the WNP.The results of further analysis indicate that the persistence of North Atlantic tri-pole SST anomalies from spring to the subsequent summer induced by the spring NAO plays a fundamental role in the linkage between the spring NAO and summer atmospheric circulation.During the period of 1996–2018,a remarkable eastward propagating wave-train occurred across the northern Eurasian continent,forced by the anomalous SST tri-pole in the North Atlantic.The East Asian jet flow became greatly intensified,and the deep convection in the tropics was further enhanced via the changes of the local Hadley circulation,corresponding to a positive spring NAO.During the former epoch,the spring NAO-induced tri-pole SST anomalies in the North Atlantic were non-existent,and the related atmospheric circulation anomalies were extremely weak,thereby leading to the linkage between spring NAO and WNP TC genesis frequency in the following summer being insignificant. | Qun Zhou Wen Chen | 2020 | Acta Oceanologica Sinica2020，39，5： | 2 |
| 3 | Possible Linkage Between Tropical Indian Ocean SST Anomalies and the Date of First and Last Tropical Cyclones Landfalling in the Chinese Mainland显示文摘Bases on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis products,Had ISST dataset,and data of tropical cyclone(TC)landfalling in the Chinese mainland during 1960-2019,the possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)mode and Indian Ocean basin(IOB)mode on the last-TC-landfall date(LLD)and first-TC-landfall date(FLD),respectively,are investigated in this study.The LLD is in significantly negative correlation with autumn IOD on the interannual timescale and their association is independent of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The LLD tends to be earlier when the IOD is positive while becomes later when the IOD is negative.An anomalous lower-level anticyclone is located around the Philippines during October-November,resulting from the change of Walker circulation over the tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean forced by sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies related to a positive IOD event.The Philippines anticyclone anomaly suppresses TC formation there and prevents TCs from landfalling in the Chinese mainland due to the anomalous westerly steering flows over southeast China during October-November,agreeing well with the earlier LLD.However,the robust connection between spring IOB and FLD depends on ENSO episodes in the preceding winter.There is an anticyclonic anomaly around the Philippines caused by the tropical SST anomalies through modulating the Walker circulation during May-June when the IOB is warming in the El Nino decaying phase.Correspondingly,the TC genesis is less frequent near the Philippines and the mid-level steering flows associated with the expanded western Pacific subtropical high are disadvantageous for TCs moving towards southeast China and making landfall during May-June,in accordance with the later FLD.By contrast,cooling IOB condition in spring of a La Nina decaying year and negative IOD cases during autumn could produce a completely reversed atmospheric circulation response,leading to an earlier FLD and a later LLD over the Chinese mainland,respectively. | 周群 魏立新 李敏 | 2022 | Journal of Tropical Meteorology2022，28，1： | 1 |
| 4 | 南海台风路径的K-均值聚类分析显示文摘由于南海台风具有较高的登陆频率,通常会对周边沿海地区造成严重的生命和财产损失。而对台风路径进行分类是获得台风特征的重要途径。利用K均值聚类分析法,对南海台风进行分类。各分类结果均显示,各集群台风之间具有明显的差异性,其移动轨迹与登陆地区之间具有不同的特征,会在南海周边国家为台风灾害防护提供技术支持。 | 尹亚锋 雍阳阳 | 2023 | 农业灾害研究2023，13，4： | 0 |
| 5 | 秋季登陆广东热带气旋特征变化及机制分析显示文摘基于1949—2021年中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集和登陆热带气旋数据集,对秋季登陆广东热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TCs)的时空特征和可能机制进行分析,并与夏季进行对比。结果表明:近73年共76个TCs秋季登陆广东,占登陆总数的28.5%,以强台风和超强台风占主,且平均最大强度强于夏季。相比夏季,秋TCs更大比例(72.4%)生成于西北太平洋,生成经纬度偏南、偏东;秋TCs的年均破坏潜力指标(power dissipation index,PDI)可达0.4×10^(7)m^(3)·s^(-2),与夏季相当;秋TCs登陆后比夏季更快消亡,移速更慢,PDI较小。秋TCs登陆数量长期变化呈下降趋势且下降速率与夏季相当,登陆强度上升且上升速率为夏季1.8倍,移速减缓速率为夏季2.5倍,PDI下降速率明显弱于夏季。不同于夏季登陆TCs在拉尼娜年增多,秋TCs更易在厄尔尼诺年登陆广东;登陆广东秋TCs数与上一年冬春季厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)指数相关系数达到0.3,并对后一年ENSO具有指示作用。秋TCs登陆频数与太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)指数显著相关,1977—1996和1997—2016暖冷两个位相期,相关系数分别为−0.51和0.68。对比有无秋TCs的环境场,发现南海北部海温暖异常时,其西北侧激发的气旋性引导气流利于TCs登陆广东。 | 韩鼎妍 李敏 胡睿 谢玲玲 | 2024 | 热带海洋学报2024，43，1： | 0 |
| 6 | 海面温度半球间偶极子模态对7—11月北半球平均热带气旋强度年代际变化的调控显示文摘海面温度半球间偶极子(sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole,SSTID)是全球海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)异常的重要模态之一,表现为南、北两半球间SST的反相变化。此文探究了7—11月SSTID对7—11月北半球平均热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)强度年代际变率的超前影响。观测分析表明,SSTID超前7—11月北半球平均TC强度年代际分量8~11 a,并在提前时间为9 a时达到最大正相关。通过海洋-大气耦合桥理论进一步分析表明,7—11月北半球TC活跃区海洋可以作为海洋桥,以SST的形式存储超前约9 a的SSTID信号。同时北半球TC活跃区大气作为大气桥将超前约9 a的SSTID信号传递到大气中,进而作用于7—11月北半球平均TC强度,该过程以TC潜在生成指数为表征。北半球TC活跃区的垂直风切变和600 hPa相对湿度的综合影响在其中起关键作用。由此建立了基于SSTID的7—11月北半球平均TC强度年代际变化预测模型,该模型表现出良好的后报性能。利用该模型对2021—2029年7—11月北半球平均TC强度预测表明,7—11月北半球平均TC强度将以持续增强为主并在2020年代末达到破纪录的强度。 | 杜雪晴 李建平 李飞 | 2023 | 海洋气象学报2023，43，2： | 0 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员