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| 1 | 2019年11月西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数异常偏多的成因分析显示文摘基于1979—2019年NCEP-DOE再分析资料、中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集和HadISST全球海温资料等,研究了2019年11月西北太平洋TC生成频数异常偏多的可能原因。结果表明:2019年11月西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)强度偏强、脊线偏北,其南侧偏东气流与越赤道气流交汇形成的西北太平洋热带辐合带偏强偏北、向东延伸,为TC生成创造了低层强的辐合、高层强的辐散、小的风速垂直切变以及对流层中层充足的水汽等有利的大尺度环境条件,导致TC生成频次异常偏多、生成位置偏北偏东。采用EOF方法进行分析,发现11月东亚大槽年际变化的第二模态为南北反位相型分布,对应的第二特征向量(PC2)与WPSH脊线指数具有高度一致性,且与同期西北太平洋上空TC生成频数呈显著的正相关关系。即当11月东亚大槽北部加深而南部变浅时,对应WPSH脊线偏北,TC生成频数偏多,表明深秋季节西风带槽脊活动对西北太平洋TC生成有一定的调制作用。进一步的诊断分析揭示了北太平洋海温异常可能是造成东亚大槽经向偶极子型变异的重要因子。 | 周群 黄焕卿 张润宇 邓小花 | 2021 | 海洋预报2021，38，1： | 2 |
| 2 | Possible Linkage Between Tropical Indian Ocean SST Anomalies and the Date of First and Last Tropical Cyclones Landfalling in the Chinese Mainland显示文摘Bases on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis products,Had ISST dataset,and data of tropical cyclone(TC)landfalling in the Chinese mainland during 1960-2019,the possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)mode and Indian Ocean basin(IOB)mode on the last-TC-landfall date(LLD)and first-TC-landfall date(FLD),respectively,are investigated in this study.The LLD is in significantly negative correlation with autumn IOD on the interannual timescale and their association is independent of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The LLD tends to be earlier when the IOD is positive while becomes later when the IOD is negative.An anomalous lower-level anticyclone is located around the Philippines during October-November,resulting from the change of Walker circulation over the tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean forced by sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies related to a positive IOD event.The Philippines anticyclone anomaly suppresses TC formation there and prevents TCs from landfalling in the Chinese mainland due to the anomalous westerly steering flows over southeast China during October-November,agreeing well with the earlier LLD.However,the robust connection between spring IOB and FLD depends on ENSO episodes in the preceding winter.There is an anticyclonic anomaly around the Philippines caused by the tropical SST anomalies through modulating the Walker circulation during May-June when the IOB is warming in the El Nino decaying phase.Correspondingly,the TC genesis is less frequent near the Philippines and the mid-level steering flows associated with the expanded western Pacific subtropical high are disadvantageous for TCs moving towards southeast China and making landfall during May-June,in accordance with the later FLD.By contrast,cooling IOB condition in spring of a La Nina decaying year and negative IOD cases during autumn could produce a completely reversed atmospheric circulation response,leading to an earlier FLD and a later LLD over the Chinese mainland,respectively. | 周群 魏立新 李敏 | 2022 | Journal of Tropical Meteorology2022，28，1： | 1 |
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