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| 1 | 老龄化对房价的影响机制:基于中国的实证研究显示文摘随着我国逐渐步入深度老龄化社会,老龄化对房地产市场的影响将日益凸显.本研究系统分析了老龄化影响房地产价格的理论机制,识别与筛选出关键传导渠道,并基于我国31省市数据,采用面板模型及门限面板等计量模型进行验证.实证结果表明:老龄化对房价存在直接的负向影响,且在预期、人口规模、城镇化率、人均可支配收入促进房价增长的机制中存在负向调节作用;同时,经济发展及城镇化会在一定程度上缓解老龄化对房价的负向影响.老龄化对房价的负向影响是否胜过其他因素对房价的正向影响取决于我国目前所处的经济发展水平及城镇化水平. | 牟新娣 李秀婷 董纪昌 董志 朱琳琳 | 2019 | 系统工程理论与实践2019，39，4： | 18 |
| 2 | 老龄化背景下房企发展养老地产的对策研究显示文摘当前,中国已进人老龄化社会,养老地产的兴起已成为必然趋势。为促进房企更好地发展养老地产,采用SWOT定性方法识别房企发展养老地产的影响因素,并通过SWOT-AHP结合的方法定量分析各因素,分析结果表明:房企发展养老地产的战略重点应以机会型战略为主,适当兼顾进取型战略。在此基础上提出做好项目定位、提升项目运营服务水平、寻求政策支持、加强与政府及各路资本的合作等房企发展养老地产的对策。 | 彭后生 张建坤 李灵芝 | 2014 | 现代城市研究2014，29，12： | 15 |
| 3 | Demographics, societal aging, and meat consumption in China显示文摘Drawn on the data collected by surveying 1 340 urban households from six cities in China, this paper estimates the impacts of demographic structure and population aging on household meat consumption, by jointly considering meat consumed at home and away from home. Based on the trajectories of population, a simple simulation on meat demand trend in China is conducted subsequently. The results suggest: 1) Meat consumed away from home averagely accounts for near 30% of household total meat consumption in terms of quantity, so that its omission likely leads to a significant underestimate of total meat consumption and misunderstanding the driving forces; 2) population aging significantly and negatively affects per capita meat consumption, suggesting that the expected meat demand in China without considering population aging will be overestimated. The findings from this study have important implications for better understanding the relative issues on China's meat consumption under the situation of population aging. | MIN Shi BAI Jun-fei James Seale Jr. Thomas Wahl | 2015 | Journal of Integrative Agriculture2015，14，6： | 11 |
| 4 | The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics显示文摘In recent years, the proportion of China's elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then,the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China's population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies,imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate. | MOU Xindi LI Xiuting DONG Jichang | 2021 | Journal of Systems Science & Complexity2021，34，1： | 3 |
| 5 | 人口老龄化对中国住房需求的影响研究显示文摘人口老龄化不仅意味着老年人口占比上升,它还会对住房需求产生影响.现有关于人口老龄化对住房需求影响的研究大多基于局部均衡理论,且多以实证分析为主,较少探讨老龄化进程中住房需求变化的微观基础,所得结论不尽一致.因此,文章构建了由微观至宏观、系统全面的OLG-CGE-Multi-Agent房地产市场模型,并对不同生育补贴政策下老龄化对住房需求总量和结构的影响进行了仿真研究.实证研究发现:1)部分和全部实行生育补贴时,住房需求均先上升后下降再上升,且全部实行生育补贴政策的住房需求高于部分实行生育补贴政策的住房需求;2)不实行生育补贴时,住房需求先上升再下降,且一直低于其他两种生育补贴政策;3)25-34岁人群的住房需求最高,其次是35-44岁人群;4)不实行生育补贴时,65岁及以上人群的住房需求在第28年超过45-64岁人群;在其他两种政策下,65岁及以上人群的住房需求始终低于45-64岁人群. | 朱琳琳 董纪昌 张辉 李秀婷 | 2019 | 系统科学与数学2019，39，9： | 2 |
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