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| 1 | 2001—2015年天山北坡植被覆盖对干旱的响应——基于土地利用/土地覆盖分析显示文摘天山北坡生态系统脆弱,易受干旱影响,全球变暖和不合理的人类活动加剧了干旱的影响,评估植被覆盖对干旱的响应,为改善生态环境和减轻干旱影响提供科学参考。基于MODIS-NDVI遥感数据以及气象数据,计算了2001—2015年天山北坡多尺度标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)和植被覆盖度,总结出植被覆盖度与多尺度SPEI时空动态变化规律,从土地利用/土地覆盖(LUCC)的角度分析了植被覆盖度对气候干旱的响应。结果表明:(1)天山北坡绝大部分区域呈湿润状态,中部(石河子、呼图壁)、西北部(克拉玛依市)呈轻度干旱。3个月、6个月、12个月时间尺度SPEI均表现出干旱化增强的年际变化趋势;(2)天山北坡植被覆盖度整体上属中低覆盖,总体呈南高北低,天山山区、城市绿洲内部高的分布特点。2001—2015年天山北坡植被覆盖度变化总体呈下降趋势;(3)年尺度天山北坡植被覆盖度与SPEI整体呈正相关关系。不同土地利用/土地覆盖的植被覆盖度与12个月时间尺度SPEI(SPEI 12)的相关性不同,大小依次为:草地>未利用地>城乡用地>林地>水域>耕地;(4)季节尺度夏季和春季干旱对植被覆盖度的影响最明显,不同季节干旱对不同土地利用/土地覆盖植被覆盖度影响程度不同。 | 李艳菊 丁建丽 张钧泳 武鹏飞 | 2019 | 生态学报2019，39，17： | 31 |
| 2 | 使用岭回归对哈萨克斯坦月平均气温的统计降尺度研究显示文摘哈萨克斯坦是世界最大的内陆国家,拥有典型的大陆性气候和多样的地理环境及生态系统,同时哈萨克斯坦的自然环境和人类社会对于气候变化这一全球性问题是敏感的、脆弱的,需要运用科学的研究方法应对气候变化的挑战。通常,区域或局地尺度的气候变化影响研究需要对气候模式输出或再分析资料进行降尺度以获得更细分辨率的气候资料。近年来,大量验证统计降尺度方法在各个地区能力的研究见诸文献,然而在哈萨克斯坦地区验证统计降尺度方法的研究非常少见。本文使用了岭回归的方法对哈萨克斯坦地区11个气象站点1960-2009年的月平均气温进行了统计降尺度研究。结果显示,使用前30年数据和岭回归模型建立大尺度预报因子和观测资料的统计关系可以较好地预测后20年的月平均气温,预测能力在各站各月均有不同程度的差异,地形复杂的站点预测效果较差,夏季预测结果好于冬季;此外,将哈萨克斯坦地区平均来看则与观测数据相吻合。 | 李亚飞 王磊斌 毛慧琴 延晓冬 | 2016 | 气候与环境研究2016，21，5： | 4 |
| 3 | Understanding livestock production and sustainability of grassland ecosystems in the Asian Dryland Belt显示文摘Background:Companioned by economic development,a dietary shift toward higher meat consumption is seen in developing countries and transitional economies,where the demand for livestock production has been increasing in response to such a dietary shift.In the Asian Dryland Belt,approaches to meet this demand have focused on grazing intensification,cropland conversion for animal feed,and supplemental feeding.With the scarcity of water,energy,and food in the region,a key question is whether or not the current approaches are sustainable.If not,what are the pathways to increase livestock production while protecting the region’s environment for a sustainable future?We provide our reviews and discuss current approaches in response to these dietary shifts and assess their environmental resilience with a focus on the grassland ecosystems in the Asian Dryland Belt.Results:While current approaches alleviate the urgent need for short-term livestock production,they lead to longterm vulnerability in food security.Trade-offs between short gains and long-term losses,between food for humans and for animals,and between agricultural intensification and environmental degradation need to be holistically examined for the sustainable development of the region.A grassland water,energy,and food nexus framework is proposed with specific recommendations to increase livestock production while considering other ecosystem services of the dryland grassland ecosystems in the Asian Dryland Belt.Conclusions:Current practices to increase livestock production are likely to lead to long-term,large-scale ecological degradation of the grassland ecosystems in the Asian Dryland Belt and are thus unsustainable.By considering the trade-offs in the nexus of water,land,food,and livelihoods,sustainable pathways were articulated and recommended.Future pilot studies are needed for validation and adoption. | Jiaguo Qi Xiaoping Xin Ranjeet John Pavel Groisman Jiquan Chen | 2017 | Ecological Processes2017，6，1： | 4 |
| 4 | 产业结构变动对经济增长贡献——塔吉克斯坦共和国的实证分析显示文摘根据'配第一克拉克定理'及相关产业结构理论,研究产业结构变动对区域经济增长的贡献。利用塔吉克斯坦共和国统计委员会的统计数据,分析各产业增长比例波动情况,采用因素分析法和作差法,评价塔吉克斯坦产业结构的变动对经济增长速度的影响。通过泰尔指数评价产业结构变动对经济增长结构协调性的影响。评价结果表明,产业结构的变动对经济增长有着显著作用,产业结构的优化升级会对经济增长产生积极的贡献。最后,提出对策建议。 | 宋耀辉 马惠兰 | 2014 | 资源与产业2014，16，2： | 3 |
| 5 | “一带一路”背景下中国与中亚五国合作开展反贫困的路径研究显示文摘中国与中亚五国比邻相连,历史文化源远流长,同属'一带一路'沿线国家,有着共同的发展使命,反贫困的任务艰巨。本文通过文献梳理与数据挖掘,分析了中亚五国反贫困的现状及存在问题的原因,探索了建立中国与中亚五国反贫困合作机制的可行性,综合评价了双边和多边开展反贫困的实践,并在此基础上提出了构建中国与中亚五国开展反贫困合作的路径,旨在为双边和多边更好地开展反贫困合作提供决策依据和政策建议。 | 李梦竹 王志章 | 2018 | 人文杂志2018，0，9： | 2 |
| 6 | Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities显示文摘In this study,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from the Syr Darya River Basin during the period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff and the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff.The Syr Darya River,which is supplied by snow and glacier meltwater upstream,is an important freshwater source for Central Asia,as nearly half of the population is concentrated in this area.River runoff in this arid region is sensitive to climate change and human activities.Therefore,estimation of the climatic and hydrological changes and the quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff are of great concern and important for regional water resources management.The long-term trends of hydrological time series from the selected 11 hydrological stations in the Syr Darya River Basin were examined by non-parametric methods,including the Pettitt change point test and Mann-Kendall trend tests.It was found that 8 out of 11 hydrological stations showed significant downward trends in river runof f.Change of river runoff variations occurred in the year around 1960.Moreover,during the study period(1930–2015),annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and annual potential evapotranspiration in the river basin increased substantially.We employed hydrological sensitivity method to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.It was estimated that human activities accounted for over 82.6%–98.7%of the reduction in river runoff,mainly owing to water withdrawal for irrigation purpose.The observed variations in river runoff can subsequently lead to adverse ecological consequences from an ecological and regional water resources management perspective. | Sanim BISSENBAYEVA Jilili ABUDUWAILI Assel SAPAROVA Toqeer AHMED | 2021 | Journal of Arid Land2021，13，1： | 1 |
| 7 | Monitoring fire regimes and assessing their driving factors in Central Asia显示文摘Relatively little is known about fire regimes in grassland and cropland in Central Asia.In this study,eleven variables of fire regimes were measured from 2001 to 2019 by utilizing the burned area and active fire product,which was obtained and processed from the GEE(Google Earth Engine)platform,to describe the incidence,inter-annual variability,peak month and size of fire in four land cover types(forest,grassland,cropland and bare land).Then all variables were clustered to define clusters of fire regimes with unique fire attributes using the K-means algorithm.Results showed that Kazakhstan(KAZ)was the most affected by fire in Central Asia.Fire regimes in cropland in KAZ had the frequent,large and intense characters,which covered large burned areas and had a long duration.Fires in grassland mainly occurred in central KAZ and had the small scale and high-intensity characters with different quarterly frequencies.Fires in forest were mainly distributed in northern KAZ and eastern KAZ.Although fires in grassland underwent a shift from more to less frequent from 2001 to 2019 in Central Asia,vigilance is needed because most fires in grassland occur suddenly and cause harm to humans and livestock. | YIN Hanmin Jiapaer GULI JIANG Liangliang YU Tao Jeanine UMUHOZA LI Xu | 2021 | Journal of Arid Land2021，13，5： | 1 |
| 8 | 升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究显示文摘基于CMIP5中的5个全球气候模式统计降尺度的降水、最高和最低气温等数据,利用标准降水蒸发指数(SPEI)和强度-面积-持续时间(IAD)方法识别全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱事件,结合30 m分辨率土地利用数据,探讨中亚干旱事件的演变及耕地暴露度变化。结果表明:相比基准期(1986—2005年),中亚地区的降水和潜在蒸发量均有所增加;全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,中亚地区的干旱事件频次、强度和面积均将增加,其中重旱和极旱事件的频次和影响面积大幅上升,而中旱事件的频次和影响面积持续下降;1986—2005年中亚地区年均干旱耕地暴露度约11.5万km2,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,干旱耕地暴露度将分别上升到17.9万km2和28.6万km2,且暴露在极旱下的耕地面积增加最明显。全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,增加的干旱事件将会严重威胁当地农业生产和粮食安全,中亚地区需对干旱事件采取长期的减缓与适应措施。 | 王安乾 陶辉 方泽华 | 2022 | 气候变化研究进展2022，18，6： | 1 |
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