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| 1 | A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction Research in China显示文摘The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program(WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China. | WANG Huijun FAN Ke SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan LANG Xianmei LI Fang ZHU Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，2： | 20 |
| 2 | 亚洲——太平洋夏季风系统的基本模态特征分析显示文摘亚洲—太平洋季风区各季风子系统间的相互作用对季风区甚至全球的气候变化都有着显著的影响。整个亚洲—太平洋夏季风系统都处于高层辐散、低层辐合的庞大辐散环流中,从高层辐散中心流出的三支气流分别对推动印度夏季风、东亚副热带夏季风和南海夏季风起着重要的作用,很好地表现了亚洲—太平洋夏季风系统的整体性特征。季风区多种气象要素的基本模态在年代际和年际尺度上都表现出较为一致的变化特征:年代际尺度上亚洲—太平洋夏季风系统整体呈现减弱趋势;年际尺度上存在准2年和准4年的两个周期,其中准2年振荡特征表现为若印度西南季风偏强,则印度季风雨带偏强偏北,导致印度大陆中北部地区降水偏多;同时,由于西太平洋副热带高压的北移和偏强的印度西南季风显著向东延伸,10°N~30°N范围内的西北太平洋地区则表现为异常的气旋性环流,而30°N~50°N之间为反气旋性环流异常,对应东亚夏季风偏强,季风雨带能够北推至我国华北地区。也就是说,当亚洲夏季风中某一季风子系统表现为异常偏强时,另一季风子系统在这一年中也将表现为异常偏强,反之亦然。准2年的振荡周期可能是亚洲—太平洋夏季风系统的一种固有振荡,它从年际尺度上反映了亚洲—太平洋夏季风受热带太平洋—印度洋海温的强迫表现出明显的整体一致特征。 | 刘芸芸 丁一汇 | 2012 | 大气科学2012，36，4： | 13 |
| 3 | 索马里越赤道气流对西南雨季开始早晚的影响显示文摘基于中国气象局西南雨季监测标准和高空间分辨率的台站日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了西南雨季开始日期的气候特征及和索马里、孟加拉湾越赤道气流的关系,发现西南雨季的气候平均开始时间约为5月第4候,且在2000年前后有从偏晚向偏早转变的趋势。统计诊断分析表明,在东半球低层的几支越赤道气流中,只有索马里和孟加拉湾越赤道气流的强弱会影响到雨季开始早晚和雨量大小,且都对应于急流强雨季早、急流弱雨季晚的特征,但在月尺度上前者的作用更强。急流通道中心经向风和赤道印度洋纬向风对雨季的超前相关及逐日变率合成分析表明,索马里地区经向风速在雨季爆发前十日开始为正的日较差,即十日前经向风持续增强,并在约七日至五日前作用最为显著,从而对西南雨季起到触发作用。在这一触发过程中,索马里急流的超前影响要早于孟加拉湾越赤道气流。受上游越赤道气流影响,赤道印度洋西风和孟加拉湾西南气流也会增强,为西南地区提供充沛的水汽。 | 白慧 高辉 | 2017 | 大气科学2017，41，4： | 8 |
| 4 | Decadal Features of Heavy Rainfall Events in Eastern China显示文摘Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution. | 陈活泼 孙建奇 范可 | 2012 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2012，26，3： | 8 |
| 5 | Relationship between zonal position of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Euro-Atlantic blocking events and its possible effect on the weather over Europe显示文摘The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events. | YAO Yao LUO DeHai | 2014 | Science China Earth Sciences2014，57，11： | 8 |
| 6 | Pan-Asian monsoon and its definition,principal modes of precipitation,and variability features显示文摘Here we propose a new concept,the Pan-Asian monsoon,and use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and linear regression approach to define it and to analyze the monsoon-related rainfall variability.The Pan-Asian monsoon is referred to as the monsoon occurred over the great region (60°E-140°E,10°S-35°N),consisting of the Indian monsoon,Southeast Asian monsoon,East Asian monsoon,and Western North Pacific monsoon.The Pan-Asian monsoon region is the principal region of the summer rainfall over the Asian-Pacific monsoon region and is also water vapor channel connecting several Asian-Pacific sub-monsoon systems.The first EOF mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon precipitation (PAMP_F) shows a meridional tripole pattern with more (less) rainfall zonal belt over the Bay of Bengal (BOB),the Indo-China Peninsula,South China,the South China Sea (SCS),Philippines and the Philippine Sea,and less (more) rainfall on both sides.The first rainfall mode is associated with the weakened Somali cross-equatorial flows,enhanced southerly over the eastern coast of Australia,and strengthened westerly over the tropical Pacific.The first EOF rainfall mode shows a close relationship with the simultaneous El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific South America (PSA).The preceding spring and simultaneous summer Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the western Hemisphere (AAO in Pacific) has a connection with the first summer rainfall mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon.Because the main influence factors are over the Pacific,the first rainfall mode is named as the Pacific mode.The second mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon precipitation (PAMP_S) shows a dipole pattern from northeast to southwest,which is associated with the weakened Somali cross-equatorial flows,enhanced easterlies over the Maritime Continent,and weak easterly over the tropical Pacific.The second rainfall model has a close relationship with the atmospheric convection activity and the sea surface temperature variability over the Maritime Continent and South Indian Ocean.Because the influence factors are mainly over the eastern Hemisphere,the second rainfall mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon is named as the Indian Ocean mode. | GAO Ya WANG HuiJun | 2012 | Science China Earth Sciences2012，55，5： | 5 |
| 7 | Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the sea surface temperature in the North Pacific显示文摘The linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific during the summertime (June-August) is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of observed data.It is found that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the North Pacific SST,with the correlation coefficient being 0.58 on the interannual timescale during the period 1954-2003,which suggests that a strong (weak) APO corresponds to high (low) SST in the North Pacific.Their in-phase relationship is well supported by the dynamic and thermal conditions in association with the APO anomaly.When APO is in the positive phase,the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere is weakened,and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevails in the low-troposphere over the North Pacific.Besides,the negative anomaly of the sensible and latent heat fluxes is predominated in the North Pacific,indicating ocean gets heat flux from the atmosphere.Meanwhile,warm water advection northward is strengthened in the North Pacific.All of these provide beneficial conditions to warm the North Pacific SST,and thus the SST is increased in this region,and vice versa. | ZHOU BoTao ZHAO Ping CUI Xuan | 2010 | Chinese Science Bulletin2010，55，12： | 2 |
| 8 | On the Relationship between Climatic Variables and Pressure Systems over Saudi Arabia in the Winter Season显示文摘The synoptic circulation over Saudi Arabia is complicated and frequently governed by the effect of large-scale pressure systems. In this work, we used NCEP–NCAR global data to illustrate the relationship between climatic variables and the main pressure systems that affect the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia, and also to investigate the influence of these pressure systems on surface air temperature(SAT) and rainfall over the region in the winter season. It was found that there are two primary patterns of pressure that influence the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia. The first occurs in cases of a strengthening Subtropical High(Sub H), a weakening Siberian High(Sib H), a deepening of the Icelandic Low(Ice L), or a weakening of the Sudanese Low(Sud L). During this pattern, the Sub H combines with the Sib H and an obvious increase of sea level pressure(SLP) occurs over southern European, the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East. This belt of high pressure prevents interaction between midlatitude and extratropical systems, which leads to a decrease in the SAT,relative humidity(RH) and rainfall over Saudi Arabia. The second pattern occurs in association with a weakening of the Sub H, a strengthening of the Sib H, a weakening of the Ice L, or a deepening of the Sud L. The pattern arising in this case leads to an interaction between two different air masses: the first(cold moist) air mass is associated with the Mediterranean depression travelling from west to east, while the second(warm moist) air mass is associated with the northward oscillation of the Sud L and its inverted V-shape trough. The interaction between these two air masses increases the SAT, RH and the probability of rainfall over Saudi Arabia, especially over the northwest and northeast regions. | H.M.HASANEAN H.Abdel BASSET M.A.A.HUSSEIN | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，5： | 0 |
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