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| 1 | 基于油价随机过程的国际石油合同模式经济性分析显示文摘以国际石油合作的代表性模式之一矿税制合同为例,以油价服从几何布朗运动(GBM)和均值回复过程(MRP)为基础,通过对影响合同经济性的两个关键因素矿区使用费和所得税的不同情景假设,对合同模式的经济性进行了研究。结果表明,在油价不确定的条件下,相对于矿区使用费而言,所得税对项目价值的影响更加显著;当预期油价波动率较小时,均值回复过程要比几何布朗运动的模拟效果更好一些。该研究结果为国际石油投标、谈判和决策提供了一种新的分析视角和方法。 | 汪东进 李秀生 刘明明 王震 | 2012 | 石油学报2012，33，3： | 9 |
| 2 | Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model显示文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncertainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engineering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers. | Xin-Hua Qiu Zhen Wang Qing Xue | 2015 | Petroleum Science2015，12，3： | 4 |
| 3 | Production sharing contract: An analysis based on an oil price stochastic process显示文摘Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) or the Mean-Reverting Process (MRP), this paper takes the net present value (NPV) as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element (i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax). Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor's financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility. | Liu Mingming Wang Zhen Zhao Lin Pan Yanni Xiao Fei | 2012 | Petroleum Science2012，9，3： | 3 |
| 4 | Risk measurement of international oil and gas projects based on the Value at Risk method显示文摘International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making. | Cheng Cheng Zhen Wang Ming-Ming Liu Xiao-Hang Ren | 2019 | Petroleum Science2019，16，1： | 2 |
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