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| 1 | Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model显示文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncertainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engineering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers. | Xin-Hua Qiu Zhen Wang Qing Xue | 2015 | Petroleum Science2015，12，3： | 4 |
| 2 | An improved portfolio optimization model for oil and gas investment selection显示文摘For oil company decision-makers, the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities. Recently a new management philosophy, 'Beyond NPV', has received more and more international attention. Economists and senior executives are seeking effective alternative analysis approaches for traditional technical and economic evaluation methods. The improved portfolio optimization model presented in this article represents an applicable technique beyond NPV for doing capital budgeting. In this proposed model, not only can oil company executives achieve trade-offs between returns and risks to their risk tolerance, but they can also employ an 'operational premium' to distinguish their ability to improve the performance of the underlying projects. A simulation study based on 19 overseas upstream assets owned by a large oil company in China is conducted to compare optimized utility with non-optimized utility. The simulation results show that the petroleum optimization model including 'operational premium' is more in line with the rational investors' demand. | Xue Qing Wang Zhen Liu Sijing Zhao Dong | 2014 | Petroleum Science2014，11，1： | 1 |
| 3 | A delayed royalty framework for investments in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon显示文摘The nature of oil and gas Nation's petroleum fiscal system affects the survival of exploration and production(E&P)companies during periods of low oil price as these companies are expected to pay royalty to the government irrespective of the price of oil.This affects the sustainability of E&P companies during periods of low oil price.There is the need to design a petroleum fiscal systems that increases the chances of survival of firms during periods of low oil price.This research therefore considered the economic analysis of a delayed royalty framework for investments in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon.The delay in royalty payment was hinged as a function of the time it takes the contractor to recoup his investment capital.Three economic models for petroleum investment in an onshore oil field were built.Royalty rate in the models was varied between 0 and 30%and oil price was also varied between$30-$120/bbl.Model 1 was the base case model with zero royalty payment.While model 2(Scenario 1)had royalty payment.Model 3(Scenario 2)had a delayed royalty payment.Risk analysis was also carried out to see how the delayed royalty framework increases the sustainability of E&P firm using@Risk software.It was observed that the delayed royalty framework increases the chances of survival of firms as the NPV for Scenario 2 was positive but without the framework,it was negative at an oil price of$30/bbl.The payout period,government and contractor's take and the internal rate of return also show that the delayed royalty framework will increase the chances of a firm's survival during periods of low oil price.It is seen that the delayed royalty framework is another way to make a petroleum fiscal system progressive aside the already known factors used globally. | Oghenerume Ogolo Petrus Nzerem | 2021 | Petroleum Research2021，6，4： | 0 |
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