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| 1 | CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY显示文摘The difficulty in crude oil price forecasting, due to inherent complexity, has attracted much attention of academic researchers and business practitioners. Various methods have been tried to solve the problem of forecasting crude oil prices. However, all of the existing models of prediction can not meet practical needs. Very recently, Wang and Yu proposed a new methodology for handling complex systems-TEI@I methodology by means of a systematic integration of text mining, econometrics and intelligent techniques.Within the framework of TEI@I methodology, econometrical models are used to model the linear components of crude oil price time series (i.e., main trends) while nonlinear components of crude oil price time series (i.e., error terms) are modelled by using artificial neural network (ANN) models. In addition, the impact of irregular and infrequent future events on crude oil price is explored using web-based text mining (WTM) and rule-based expert systems (RES) techniques. Thus, a fully novel nonlinear integrated forecasting approach with error correction and judgmental adjustment is formulated to improve prediction performance within the framework of the TEI@I methodology. The proposed methodology and the novel forecasting approach are illustrated via an example. | WANGShouyang YULean K.K.LAI | 2005 | Journal of Systems Science & Complexity2005，18，2： | 73 |
| 2 | TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH MULTIPLE CANDIDATE MODELS:SELECTING OR COMBINING?显示文摘Various mathematical models have been commonly used in time series analysis and forecasting. In these processes, academic researchers and business practitioners often come up against two important problems. One is whether to select an appropriate modeling approach for prediction purposes or to combine these different individual approaches into a single forecast for the different/dissimilar modeling approaches. Another is whether to select the best candidate model for forecasting or to mix the various candidate models with different parameters into a new forecast for the same/similar modeling approaches. In this study, we propose a set of computational procedures to solve the above two issues via two judgmental criteria. Meanwhile, in view of the problems presented in the literature, a novel modeling technique is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of existing combined forecasting methods. To verify the efficiency and reliability of the proposed procedure and modeling technique, the simulations and real data examples are conducted in this study.The results obtained reveal that the proposed procedure and modeling technique can be used as a feasible solution for time series forecasting with multiple candidate models. | YULean WANGShouyang K.K.Lai Y.Nakamori | 2005 | Journal of Systems Science & Complexity2005，18，1： | 5 |
| 3 | FORECASTING NIKKEI 225 INDEX WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE显示文摘Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a very specific type of learning algorithms characterized by the capacity control of the decision function, the use of the kernel functions and the sparsity of the solution. In this paper, we investigate the predictability of financial movement direction with SVM by forecasting the weekly movement direction of NIKKEI 225 index. To evaluate the forecasting ability of SVM, we compare the perfor-mance with those of Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Elman Backpropagation Neural Networks. The experiment results show that SVM outperforms other classification methods. Furthermore, we propose a combining model by integrating SVM with other classification methods. The combining model performs the best among the forecasting methods. | HUANGWei YoshiteruNakamori WANGShouyang YULean | 2003 | Journal of Systems Science & Complexity2003，16，4： | 1 |
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