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| 1 | DEVELOPMENT OF NWP BASED OBJECTIVE CYCLONE PREDICTION SYSTEM(CPS) FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES——EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE显示文摘An objective NWP based Cyclone Prediction System(CPS) has been developed and implemented at IMD for operational cyclone forecasting over the north Indian Ocean(NIO). The five forecast components of CPS are(a) Genesis Potential Parameter(GPP),(b) Multi-Model Ensemble(MME) technique for track prediction,(c) Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction(SCIP),(d) rapid intensification and(e) decay model to forecast intensity after the landfall.Verification shows GPP had higher probability of detection(0.98) and lower false alarm ratio(0.27) with higher critical success index(0.72). Mean track error of MME ranged from 74 km at 12 h to 200 km at 72 h and reduced by 27% to 52% for 36 h to 72 h forecast during 2009-2013. The mean forecast errors of landfall position ranged from 56 km at 24 h to 137 km at 72 h and landfall time error ranged from 3.6 h at 24 h to 6.1 h at 72 h. Mean intensity errors of SCIP ranged from 5.4 kt at 12 h to 16.9 kt at 72 h. The probabilistic rapid intensification forecast was skillful compared to climatology. The 6-hourly decaying intensity(after landfall) errors ranged from 3 kt to 4.9 kt. Results demonstrate the potential of CPS for operational cyclone forecast over the NIO. | S.D.KOTAL S.K.BHATTACHARYA S.K.ROY BHOWMIK | 2014 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2014，3，3： | 2 |
| 2 | APPLICATION OF FUZZY CLUSTERING TECHNIQUE FOR ANALYSIS OF NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS显示文摘A fuzzy, c-means(FCM) clustering technique is explored to investigate the track of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean(NIO) for the period(1976-2014). A total of fi ve clusters is objectively identifi ed based on partition index,partition coeffi cient, Dunn Index and separation index. The results obtained during analysis emphasized that each cluster has the unique features in terms of their genesis location, landfall, travel duration, trajectory, seasonality, accumulated cyclone energy and Intensity. Analysis of large scale environmental parameters, constructed preceding day of genesis show some of these parameters to be potential precursors to TC formation for almost all the clusters, most prominently, mid-tropospheric humidity, zonal wind,vorticity and outgoing long wave radiation of the main developing regions. The individual clusters have the several distinct features in their seasonal cycles.The cluster C5 shows distinct bimodal distributions where as other clusters are formed throughout the year. ENSO infl uenced the cyclone frequency in two of the fi ve clusters. The MJO is found to play an important role in the genesis of the cyclone. The post monsoon season cyclone frequency is more in MJO phase 2, 3 and 4. The technique(FCM) can be used as a guideline in terms of the probable affected zone of TC Tracks by the operational forecasters. | SANKAR NATH S.D.KOTAL P.K.KUNDU | 2015 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2015，4，3： | 1 |
| 3 | EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES DURING RAPID GROWTH AND DECAY OF EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA(2015)显示文摘The structure and evolution of inner-core convective bursts and their differences associated with rapid intensification(RI) and rapid decay(RD) of tropical cyclone CHAPALA are examined. The inception of RI was associated with substantial increase of convective heating and its vertical extent in the inner core. Increase in diabatic heating was of the order of 12-21 oC, particularly in the middle and upper troposphere. Latent heat release produced a diabatically generated potential vorticity(PV) in vertical column. The immediate cause of RI was a significant increase of moisture flux from surface to 500 h Pa. This was accomplished primarily by updrafts of the order of 6-12 Pa s-1, representing the strong vertical motion distribution inside the warm core convective zone. The episode of deep convective bursts transpired during the period of RI. The evolving flow became highly symmetric and dominated by deep convective axisymmetric vortex structures. The RD coincided with the significant weakening in updraft of moisture flux consequently decrease of diabatic heating in the middle and upper troposphere and dissipation of upper and lower PV. | S.D.KOTAL S.K.BHATTACHARYA | 2017 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2017，6，3： | 1 |
| 4 | AN ANALYSIS OF RECURVATURE AND DECAY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘MADI’(2013) OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL显示文摘The track of tropical cyclone‘Madi’showed almost 180° turn around,while immediately after recurvature it decayed rapidly in the following 24 hours.Sea surface temperature(SST)analyses rule out confrontation with low SST as cause of weakening.At 0000 UTC of 9 December 2013 diabatic heating(DH),potential vorticity(PV)and vertical wind shear(VWS)were favourable for intensification.However,a dry area close to the system centre at mid-troposphere subsequently engulfed the middle strata and the mid-tropospheric relative humidity(MTH)drastically reduced on 0000 UTC of 10 December 2013.The MTH further reduced on 0000 UTC of 11 December 2013.Lack of moisture in mid-troposphere apparently caused a mutation within the structure causing a sudden decrease in elevation.As the system dried up,reduction in convection above 400 h Pa hindered latent heat release.PV above 400 h Pa decreased significantly.Eventually,there was a spurt of VWS at 1200 UTC of the 10December 2013.The opposite wind flow between lower level and upper level whisked away the top of the system to northeast.Under the influence of the net northeasterly flow in lower to middle troposphere,the miniature vortex recurved southwestward and the vertical distortion due to shear weakened the system into a depression. | S.K.BHATTACHARYA S.D.KOTAL P.K.KUN DU | 2015 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2015，4，1： | 0 |
| 5 | SOME SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TYPHOONS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC显示文摘Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) Best Track data from 1995 to 2014 are processed to examine some specific patterns and trends shown by Typhoons over the Western North Pacific. With a multivariate dataset of 588 TC cases in hand, we carry out a sub-domain analysis by dividing the Western North Pacific region into domains of 2°x2° and find the preferred regions of genesis, favourable direction of movement, steep recurvature, rapid intensification, and rapid decay. The region from longitude 132°E to 134°E and latitude 16°N to 18°N showed the highest number of cases(19) for rapid intensification(RI) and a general pattern is found that the RI systems occurred mostly in the later half of the year with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index. Similarly, the domain from longitude 114°E to 116°E and latitude 26°N to 28°N had the highest probability of 0.857 for rapid decay. The probabilities of recurvature for each sub-domain were calculated for angles 30°, 45°, 60°, 90°, 120° and 150°. The sub-domain around longitude 118°E and latitude 12°N had the steepest recurve of 168.69°. It also had a high probability of 0.714 for a recurvature of greater than 90°. The most taken direction of movement of typhoons around the Western North Pacific were analysed in different ways and along the 16 points of compass, the direction from 270° to 292.5° was found to be the most preferred direction of movement. | TARASHA KHURANA S.K.BHATTACHARYA S.D.KOTAL | 2017 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2017，6，3： | 0 |
| 6 | Improvement of displacement error of rainfall and wind field forecast associated with landfalling tropical cyclone AMPHAN显示文摘Spatial distribution of rainfall and wind speed forecast errors associated with landfalling tropical cyclones(TC)occur significantly due to incorrect location forecast by numerical models.Two major areas of errors are:(i)over-estimation over the model forecast locations and(ii)underestimation over the observed locations of the TCs.A modification method is proposed for real-time improvement of rainfall and wind field forecasts and demonstrated for the typical TC AMPHAN over the Bay of Bengal in 2020.The proposed method to improve the model forecasts is a relocation method through shifting of model forecast locations of TC to the real-time official forecast locations of India Meteorological Department(IMD).The modification is applied to the forecasts obtained from the operational numerical model,the Global Forecast System(GFS)of IMD.Application of the proposed method shows considerable improvement of both the parameters over both the locations.The rainfall forecast errors due to displacement are found to have improved by 44.1%–69.8%and 72.1%–85.2%over the GFS forecast locations and over the observed locations respectively for the respective forecast lead times 48 h,72 h,and 96 h.Similarly,the wind speed forecasts have improved by 27.6%–56.0%and 63.7%–84.6%over the GFS forecast locations and over the observed locations respectively for the respective forecast lead times 60 h,72 h,and 84 h.The results show that the proposed technique has capacity to provide improved spatial distributions of rainfall and wind speed forecasts associated with landfalling TCs and useful guidance to operational forecasters. | S.D.Kotal S.K.Bhattacharya | 2022 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2022，11，3： | 0 |
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