| 2 | Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast显示文摘Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community.This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres.Since IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead.The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction.While operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability. | K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won | 2023 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2023，12，4： | 0 |
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