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| 1 | Circulation anomalies associated with interannual variation of early- and late-summer precipitation in Northeast China显示文摘Summer rainfall is vital for crops in Northeast China. In this study, we investigated large-scale circulation anomalies related to monthly summer rainfall in Northeast China using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-40 reanalysis data and monthly rainfall data from 79 stations in Northeast China. The results show that the interannual variation in rainfall over Northeast China is mainly dominated by a cold vortex in early summer (May-June) and by the East Asian summer monsoon in late summer (July-August). In early summer, corresponding to increased rainfall in Northeast China, an anomalous cyclonic anomaly tilted westward with height appears to the northwest and cold vortices occur frequently. In late summer, the rainfall anomaly is mainly controlled by a northward shift of the local East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere and the northwest extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere. The enhanced southwesterly anomaly in the west of the WPSH transports more moisture into Northeast China and results in more rainfall. In addition, compared with that in July, the rainfall in Northeast China in August is also influenced by a mid- and high-latitude blocking high over Northeast Asia. | SHEN BaiZhu LIN ZhongDa LU RiYu LIAN Yi | 2011 | Science China Earth Sciences2011，54，7： | 24 |
| 2 | Relationship between the zonal displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high and the dominant modes of low-tropospheric circulation in summer显示文摘The zonal displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high remarkably influences the climate anomalies in China. In this paper,a new zonal index of the subtropical high is defined by modifying previous indices,and is used to investigate the relationship between the zonal displacement of the subtropical high and the dominant modes of 850-hPa circulations. It is found that the zonal displacement of the subtropical high is significantly correlated with the first two leading modes of circulations. In particular,the correlation coefficient between the index and the time series associated with the second mode is as high as 0.78 in 1958-2003 (46 years). Since the second mode is not associated with significant anomalies of sea surface temperatures,the above results imply the diffculty in seasonal forecasting of the zonal displacement of the subtropical high. In addition,the interannual variability in the zonal displacement of the subtropical high has been considerably enhanced since 1978,due to the effects of both dominant modes,especially the second mode. This is likely to account for the frequent occurrence of anomalous climate in China during the recent two decades. | Riyu Lu Ying Li Chan-Su Ryu | 2008 | Progress in Natural Science:Materials International2008，18，2： | 23 |
| 3 | Abrupt Summer Warming and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Northeast Asia Since the Mid-1990s: Drivers and Physical Processes显示文摘This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990 s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature(SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), annual hottest day temperature(TXx), and annual warmest night temperature(TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days(SU) and tropical nights(TR).Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/ sea ice extent(SIE),anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol(AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964–93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes,although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990 s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA(through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere–land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease. | Buwen DONG Rowan T.SUTTON Wei CHEN Xiaodong LIU Riyu LU Ying SUN | 2016 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2016，33，9： | 17 |
| 4 | A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s显示文摘This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature(SAT) over Northeast Asia, including southeastern parts of Russia, Mongolia and northern China, around the mid-1990s. The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993. This decadal shift also extends to northern China, and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s. On the one hand, both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer, but not in other seasons. On the other hand, both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean, but also in each month of summer(June, July and August). Furthermore, the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia, which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China, according to previous numerical results. Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China. | CHEN Wei LU Riyu | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，4： | 16 |
| 5 | Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific显示文摘The rainfall in North China during rainy sea-son (July and August (JA)) exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North China rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North China rainfall is associ-ated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North China rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A pos-sible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North China rainfall. | LU Riyu | 2005 | Chinese Science Bulletin2005，50，18： | 14 |
| 6 | Linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season显示文摘Interdecadal and interannual timescales are dominant in the North China rainfall in rainy season (July and August). On the interdecadal timescale, the North China rainfall exhibited an abrupt decrease at the end of 1970s. In this study, we examined the effect of this abrupt rainfall decrease on the association between rainfall and circulation on the interannual timescale, and found that the interdecadal variation does not change the physical mechanism responsible for the interannual variation of North China rainfall. There is a linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season. | LU Riyu Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China | 2003 | Chinese Science Bulletin2003，48，10： | 12 |
| 7 | Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August显示文摘Interannual variation in summer rainfall over South China(SC)was investigated on the monthly timescale.It was found that monthly rainfall from May to August exhibits different features of variation,and the amounts are basically independent of each other.There is a significant negative correlation,however,between May and July SC rainfall,which is partially related to the developing phases of ENSO events.It was also found that stronger(weaker)lower-tropospheric winds over SC and the upstream parts are responsible for more(less)SC rainfall in every month from May to August.Despite this monthly consistent enhancement of horizontal winds,the wind anomalies exhibit distinct differences between May–June and July–August,due to the remarkable change in climatological winds between these two periods.More SC rainfall is associated with a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and the Philippine Sea in May and June,but with a cyclonic anomaly centered over SC in July and August. | SU Qin LU Riyu LI Chaofan | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，2： | 11 |
| 8 | Why Was the Strengthening of Rainfall in Summer over the Yangtze River Valley in 2016 Less Pronounced than that in 1998 under Similar Preceding El Nino Events?Role of Midlatitude Circulation in August显示文摘It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley(YRV) strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of El Ni ?no,as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998.Nevertheless,the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998,despite the intensity of the 2016 El Nio having been as strong as that in 1998.A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years,principally in August.The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016—different to the positive anomaly of 1998.Further analysis suggests that the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016 could be attributable to the distinct circulation anomalies over the midlatitudes.The intensified 'Silk Road Pattern' and upper-tropospheric geopotential height over the Urals region,both at their strongest since 1980,resulted in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over midlatitude East Asia with anomalous easterly flow over the middle-to-lower reaches of the YRV in the lower troposphere.This easterly flow reduced the climatological wind,weakened the water vapor transport,and induced the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016,as compared to that in 1998.Given the unique sub-seasonal variation of the YRV rainfall in summer 2016,more attention should be paid to midlatitude circulation—besides the signal in the tropics—to further our understanding of the predictability and variation of YRV summer rainfall. | chaofan li wei chen xiaowei hong riyu lu | 2017 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2017，34，11： | 10 |
| 9 | The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Subtropical Western North Pacific during the Summer of 1998显示文摘The features of 30–60-day convection oscillations over the subtropical western North Pacific(WNP) were investigated, along with the degree of tropical–subtropical linkage between the oscillations over the WNP during summer 1998. It was found that 30–60-day oscillations were extremely strong in that summer over both the subtropical and tropical WNP, providing a unique opportunity to study the behavior of subtropical oscillations and their relationship to tropical oscillations. Further analyses indicated that 30–60-day oscillations propagate westwards over the subtropical WNP and reach eastern China. In addition, 30–60-day oscillations in the subtropics are affected by those over the South China Sea(SCS) and tropical WNP through two mechanisms:(1) direct propagation from the tropics into the subtropics; and(2) a seesaw pattern between the tropics and subtropics, with the latter being predominant. | LU Riyu DONG Huilin SU Qin Hui DING | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，1： | 9 |
| 10 | The Interannual Variation in Monthly Temperature over Northeast China during Summer显示文摘The interannual variations of summer surface air temperature over Northeast China(NEC) were investigated through a month-to-month analysis from May to August. The results suggested that the warmer temperature over NEC is related to a local positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly for all four months. However, the teleconnection patterns of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the monthly surface air temperature over NEC behave as a distinguished subseasonal variation, although the local positive height anomaly is common from month to month. In May and June, the teleconnection pattern is characterized by a wave train in the upper and middle troposphere from the Indian Peninsula to NEC. This wave train is stronger in June than in May, possibly due to the positive feedback between the wave train and the South Asian rainfall anomaly in June, when the South Asian summer monsoon has been established. In July and August, however, the teleconnection pattern associated with the NEC temperature anomalies is characterized by an East Asia/Pacific(EAP) or Pacific/Japan(PJ) pattern, with the existence of precipitation anomalies over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea.This pattern is much clearer in July corresponding to the stronger convection over the Philippine Sea compared to that in August. | CHEN Wei LU Riyu | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，3： | 9 |
| 11 | Recent Advances in Monsoon Studies in China显示文摘This review provides a synopsis of the major progress that has been made in monsoon studies in China and to further bridge the gap between the Chinese and international meteorological community. It consists of seven major sections. After the introduction, the second section begins with the global monsoon systems and their seasonal variation, based on some new methods proposed in recent years. Besides, some major intraseasonal features of East Asian monsoon, including the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are discussed. In the third section, we review the interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon, focusing in particular on the results of Chinese meteorologists that indicate the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) is obviously different from that on the tropical monsoon. Besides the tropical Pacific,other ocean basins, such as the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, are also important to the East Asian monsoon, and this topic is discussed in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we address the role of land surface processes in East Asian monsoon. For example, we describe work that has shown more snow cover in spring on the Tibetan Plateau is followed by a weakened EASM and more summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valleys. The sixth section focuses on the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) on EASM, demonstrating how the signal from the SH is likely to provide new clues for the seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in China. Finally, in the seventh section, we concentrate on the interdecadal variations of EASM. In particular, we look at a significant interdecadal variation that occurred at the end of the 1970 s, and how our understanding of this feature could affect forecasting ability. | XUE Feng ZENG Qingcun HUANG Ronghui LI Chongyin LU Riyu ZHOU Tianjun | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，2： | 7 |
| 12 | Causes of the Extreme Hot Midsummer in Central and South China during 2017:Role of the Western Tropical Pacific Warming显示文摘This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-extending,resulting in anomalous high pressure and consequent extreme heat over CSC. The abnormal WNPSH was favored by the warming of the western tropical Pacific(WTP), which was unrelated to ENSO and manifested its own individual effect.The WTP warming enhanced the convection in-situ and led to anomalous high pressure over CSC via a local meridional circulation. The influence of the WTP was confirmed by CAM4 model experiments. A comparison between the 2017 midsummer and 2010 midsummer(with a stronger WNPSH but weaker extreme heat) indicated that the influence of the WNPSH on extreme heat can be modulated by the associated precipitation in the northwestern flank.The role of the WTP was verified by regression analyses on the interannual variation of the WTP sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA). On the other hand, the WTP has undergone prominent warming during the past few decades, resulting from decadal to long-term changes and favoring extreme warm conditions. Through a mechanism similar to the interannual variation, the decadal to long-term changes have reinforced the influence of WTP warming on the temperature over CSC,contributing to the more frequent hot midsummers recently. It is estimated that more than 50% of the temperature anomaly over CSC in the 2017 midsummer was due to the WTP warming, and 40% was related to the decadal to long-term changes of the WTP SSTA. | Ruidan CHEN Zhiping WEN Riyu LU Chunzai WANG | 2019 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2019，36，5： | 7 |
| 13 | Subseasonal Change in the Seesaw Pattern of Precipitation between the Yangtze River Basin and the TropicalWestern North Pacific during Summer显示文摘There is a well-known seesaw pattern of precipitation between the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) and the Yangtze River basin(YRB) during summer. This study identified that this out-of-phase relationship experiences a subseasonal change;that is, the relationship is strong during early summer but much weaker during mid-summer. We investigated the large-scale circulation anomalies responsible for the YRB rainfall anomalies on the subseasonal timescale. It was found that the YRB rainfall is mainly affected by the tropical circulation anomalies during early summer, i.e., the anticyclonic or cyclonic anomaly over the subtropical WNP associated with the precipitation anomalies over the tropical WNP. During mid-summer, the YRB rainfall is mainly affected by the extratropical circulation anomalies in both the lower and upper troposphere. In the lower troposphere, the northeasterly anomaly north of the YRB favors heavier rainfall over the YRB by intensifying the meridional gradient of the equivalent potential temperature over the YRB. In the upper troposphere, the meridional displacement of the Asian westerly jet and the zonally oriented teleconnection pattern along the jet also affect the YRB rainfall. The subseasonal change in the WNP–YRB precipitation relationship illustrated by this study has important implications for the subseasonalto-seasonal forecasting of the YRB rainfall. | Xinyu LI Riyu LU | 2018 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2018，35，10： | 7 |
| 14 | Variation in Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia and Its Associated Circulation Anomalies显示文摘This study investigates the interannual variation of summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia(NEA) and its associated circulation anomalies.Two leading modes for the temperature variability over NEA are obtained by EOF analysis.The first EOF mode is characterized by a homogeneous temperature anomaly over NEA and therefore is called the NEA mode.This anomaly extends from southeast of Lake Baikal to Japan,with a central area in Northeast China.The second EOF mode is characterized by a seesaw pattern,showing a contrasting distribution between East Asia(specifically including the Changbai Mountains in Northeast China,Korea,and Japan) and north of this region.This mode is named the East Asia(EA) mode.Both modes contribute equivalently to the temperature variability in EA.The two leading modes are associated with different circulation anomalies.A warm NEA mode is associated with a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEA and thus a weakened upper-tropospheric westerly jet.On the other hand,a warm EA mode is related to a positive height anomaly over EA and a northward displaced jet.In addition,the NEA mode tends to be related to the Eurasian teleconnection pattern,while the EA mode is associated with the East Asia-Pacific/PacificJapan pattern. | Wei CHEN Xiaowei HONG Riyu LU Aifen JIN Shizhu JIN Jae-Cheol NAM Jin-Ho SHIN Tae-Young GOO Baek-Jo KIM | 2016 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2016，33，1： | 6 |
| 15 | Asymmetric Relationship between the Meridional Displacement of the Asian Westerly Jet and the Silk Road Pattern显示文摘In previous work, a significant relationship was identified between the meridional displacement of the Asian westerly jet(JMD) and the Silk Road Pattern(SRP) in summer. The present study reveals that this relationship is robust in northward JMD years but absent in southward JMD years. In other words, the amplitude of the SRP increases with northward displacement of the jet but shows little change with southward displacement. Further analysis indicates that, in northward JMD years, the Rossby wave source(RWS) anomalies, which are primarily contributed by the planetary vortex stretching, are significantly stronger around the entrance of the Asian jet, i.e., the Mediterranean Sea–Caspian Sea area, with the spatial distribution being consistent with that related to the SRP. By contrast, in southward JMD years, the RWS anomalies are much weaker.Therefore, this study suggests that the RWS plays a crucial role in inducing the asymmetry of the JMD–SRP relationship.The results imply that climate anomalies may be stronger in strongly northward-displaced JMD years due to the concurrence of the JMD and SRP, and thus more attention should be paid to these years. | Xiaowei HONG Riyu LU Shuanglin LI | 2018 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2018，35，4： | 6 |
| 16 | 导致2018年夏季东北亚极端高温的中高纬环流异常分析(英文)显示文摘2018年东北亚经历了过去40年以来最热的夏季(7–8月),其夏季平均的地表气温异常(1.2°C)几乎达到该地区气温年际标准差的2倍。本文指出此次极端高温与东北亚上空深厚的位势高度正异常有关,在分析时段内(1979–2018年)其强度在2018年最强。回归分析结果表明,北欧和里海的高层环流异常都可以通过激发下游波列对东北亚上空的环流产生重要影响。特别的是,2018年夏季北欧和里海的位势高度均显著增强,且均遭遇了极端高温的侵袭,位势高度正异常和高温异常也在分析时段内达到最强,因而通过波列共同促成了东北亚极端的位势高度正异常和高温。本文研究结果说明,为全面了解东北亚地区的温度变率,对中高纬的两种遥相关型特别是其波源的理解至关重要,值得进一步研究。 | XU Ke LU Riyu MAO Jiangyu CHEN Ruidan | 2019 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2019，12，4： | 6 |
| 17 | The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020显示文摘During June and July of 2020,the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding.This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event,based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system.The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin,which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature(SST)and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH,and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well.We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet(EAJ).The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall.However,the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall.In observations,the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020,which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin,and favor more mei-yu rainfall.The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes.This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall,hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation. | Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE Adam ASCAIFE Philip EBETT Fei ZHENG | 2021 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2021，38，12： | 5 |
| 18 | Projected change in the relationship between East Asian summer rainfall and upper-tropospheric westerly jet显示文摘The authors analyzed the interannual variability in summer precipitation and the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet (EAJ) over East Asia under the Historical and Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using outputs of 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models. The analyzed results indicate that the models can reasonably reproduce relatively stronger interannual variability in both East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) and EAJ. These models can also capture the relationship between the rainfall anomaly along the East Asian rain belt and meridional displacement of the EAJ. Projected results suggest that the interannual variabilities in precipitation along the East Asian rain belt and in the EAJ are enhanced under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 21st century, which is consistent with the previous studies. Furthermore, it is found that the relationship between the East Asian rainfall and the meridional displacement of the EAJ is projected to be stronger in the 21st century under the global warming scenarios, although there are appreciable discrepancies among the models. | DAI Yi LU RiYu | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 4 |
| 19 | Impacts of Two Types of El Ni o on the MJO during Boreal Winter显示文摘The features of the MJO during two types of El Ni no events are investigated in this paper using the daily NCEP-2reanalysis data, OLR data from NOAA, and Real-time Multivariate MJO index for the period 1979–2012. The results indicate that the MJO exhibits distinct features during eastern Pacific(EP) El Ni no events, as compared to central Pacific(CP) El Ni no events. First, the intensity of the MJO is weakened during EP El Ni no winters from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, but enhanced during CP El Ni no winters. Second, the range of the MJO eastward propagation is different during the two types of El Ni no events. During EP El Ni no winters, the MJO propagates eastwards to 120?W, but only to 180?during CP El Ni no winters. Finally, the frequency in eight phases of the MJO may be affected by the two types of El Ni no. Phases 2 and 3 display a stronger MJO frequency during EP El Ni no winters, but phases 4 and 5 during CP El Ni no winters. | Bo PANG Zesheng CHEN Zhiping WEN Riyu LU | 2016 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2016，33，8： | 3 |
| 20 | Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall显示文摘The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements. | Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Chaofan LI Chris HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Nick DUNSTONE Doug M. SMITH Hazel E. THORNTON Riyu LU Hong-Li REN | 2018 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2018，35，8： | 3 |
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