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您的检索式：作者名="David R.Legates"
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| 1 | Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850显示文摘Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear regression.They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date.However,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et al.are confirmed for all five ST data sets.Therefore,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both. | Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.J.Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim LászlóSzarka Víctor M.Velasco Herrera Hong Yan Weijia Zhang | 2023 | Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics2023，23，10： | 1 |
| 2 | How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends?An ongoing debate显示文摘In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities.Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature.Half of these estimates are'low variability'and half are'high variability'.Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature proxies.The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier studies.Nonetheless,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some'global warming'since the 19th century.For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting.The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended'anthropogenic forcings'time series.For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates.Therefore,several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided. | Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.John Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates Sebastian Liming Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim Laszlo Szarka Harry van Loon Victor M.Velasco Herrera Richard C.Willson 晏宏 Weijia Zhang | 2021 | Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics2021，21，6： | 1 |
| 3 | 模拟结果为什么比实际更暖:简化气候模型结果(英文)显示文摘一个 irreducibly 简单的气候敏感模型被设计授权甚至非专家研究多少的问题全球温暖我们可以引起。在 1990,气候变化(IPCC ) 上的 Intergovernmental 面板的第一份评价报告表示了近期的全球温暖将象随后的观察一样快发生两次的实质的信心。给定的升起的公司 < 潜水艇 class= “ a-plus-plus ” > 2 集中,很少模型没预言自从 2001,温暖。在期末考试前和第五份评价报告的出版草稿之间, IPCC 实质地切了它的近期的温暖设计,用专家评价代替模型近期的预言。然而,它的远程的预言仍然保持未改变。模型从 1.9 ~ 1.5 显示反馈和的那 IPCC 减小 ? W ? m < 啜 class= “ a-plus-plus ” > 2 ?K 1 从 3.2 ~ 2.2 要求减小 ? 在它的中央气候敏感估计的 K;自从反馈是可能的网否定,更好的估计是 1.0 ? K;在管道有不没有实现的全球温暖;那全球温暖这个世纪将是 < 1 ? K;并且所有可重获的石块的那燃烧造成愿望原因 < 2.2 ? K 全球温暖到平衡。解决在 IPCC 在它的第四和第五个评价采用的方法论之间的差异报导那在现在的论文被加亮是重要的。一旦那些差异被考虑,在下一个世纪的人为的全球温暖的影响,并且因此远及平衡弄平许多几千年,可以是仅仅三分之一个到 IPCC 当前的设计的一个一半。 | Christopher Monckton Willie W.-H.Soon David R.Legates William M.Briggs | 2015 | Science Bulletin2015，60，1： | 1 |
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