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| 1 | Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971-2008显示文摘Potential evapotranspiration(ETo) is important to hydrological cycling and the global energy balance.Based on a modified FAO56-Penman-Monteith model,ETo was simulated for 603 meteorological stations across China in the period 1971-2008.Spatial distribution and temporal change of ETo were characterized,and the determining factors in ETo were revealed by sensitivity analysis.Results show obvious regional differences in annual average ETo and its determining factor.In general,annual average ETo decreased in the period 1971-2008,but increased since the 1990s.Wind speed and sunshine duration were determining factors in the annual ETo trend,with smaller contributions from relative humidity and temperature.Declining wind speed was the determining factor in decreasing annual ETo in northern temperate regions and the Tibetan Plateau.The spatial extent of wind speed influence contracted to northwest China in summer,and expanded to the whole country in autumn.Decreasing sunshine duration was the determining factor in decreasing annual ETo in subtropical and tropical regions,especially in summer,with a larger spatial influence mainly to the southeast of the farming-pastoral region.ETo change has distinct impacts on earth surface ecosystems and environment depending on different determining factors. | YIN YunHe WU ShaoHong DAI ErFu | 2010 | Chinese Science Bulletin2010，55，29： | 53 |
| 2 | Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in China from 1961 to 2005显示文摘网络主要生产率(NPP ) 是代表生态系统的结构和函数的最重要的索引。NPP 能被动态全球植被模型(DGVM ) 模仿,它被设计相对环境变化代表植被动力学。这研究在气候,土壤,和地形学上与数据基于 DGVM 综合生物圈模拟器(朱鹭) 模仿了瓷器生态系统的 NPP。在瓷器陆上的生态系统的 NPP 模拟的朱鹭的适用性首先被验证。有另外的相关研究的比较显示范围和模拟的吝啬的价值通常在观察的限制以内;全面模式和全部的年度 NPP 接近与另外的模型一起进行的模拟。模拟基于遥感离 NPP 评价也靠近。确认证明那朱鹭能在瓷器自然生态系统在 NPP 的大规模模拟被利用。我们然后从 1961 ~ 2005 与气候变化数据模仿了 NPP,当温暖是特别地惹人注目的时。下列是模拟的结果。(1 ) 全部的 NPP 在过去的 45 年里从 3.61 GtC/yr 变化了到 4.24 GtC/yr 并且展出了最小的重要线性增加或减少。(2 ) 在增加的地区性的差别或在 NPP 的减少大,但是展出了一个不足道的全面线性趋势。NPP 在大多数部分衰退了东方并且华中,特别在黄土高原。(3 ) 类似于年度 NPP 的变化法律,季节的 NPP 也显示了不足道的增加或减少;趋势线在一般水平以内。(4 ) 在季节的 NPP 变化的地区性的差别大。NPP 在黄土高原在春天,夏天,和秋天衰退了,但是在西藏的高原的大多数部分增加了。 | YUAN Quanzhi WU Shaohong ZHAO Dongsheng DAI Erfu CHEN Li ZHANG Lei | 2014 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2014，24，1： | 27 |
| 3 | NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future显示文摘用综合生物圈模拟器,一个动态植被模型,这研究开始模仿了网过去的 55 年(1961-2015 ) 里并且在未来的瓷器潜在的植被的主要生产率(NPP ) 动力学 35 年(2016-2050 ) 。然后,在平均气候拿潜在的植被的 NPP 作为评估的基础在 1986-2005 期间调节,这研究检验了潜在的植被是否适应气候变化。同时,无适应性的度被评估。最后,潜在的植被的 NPP 危险被综合评估到气候的无适应性的频率和度变化。在过去的 55 年里,在 Tianshan 山的南方的荒芜的生态系统和在中国的北方并且在西方的西藏的高原的草地生态系统的 NPP 对气候变化的效果敏感。大多数森林生态系统的 NPP 不对气候变化的影响敏感。对气候变化的低 NPP 弱点常绿树阔叶、具球果的森林被观察。而且,在在中央、东方的西藏的高原的 Tianshan 山脉和草地生态系统的北方的荒芜的生态系统的 NPP 也有低危险到气候变化。在下一 35 年里,对气候变化的 NPP 弱点将在中央、西方的西藏的高原在 Songliao 平原,在温暖的适度的地区的脱落阔叶的森林,和高山的大草原减少森林大草原。NPP 危险将显著地在 Kunlun 山在 Junggar 盆和高山的沙漠适度的沙漠增加。NPP 危险副热带常绿树阔叶的森林将也增加。有增加的危险的区域的区域将说明 27.5% 中国。 | YUAN Quanzhi WU Shaohong DAI Erfu ZHAO Dongsheng REN Ping ZHANG Xueru | 2017 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2017，27，2： | 21 |
| 4 | Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century显示文摘This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 km×50 km) over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model 'Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AVIM2)' was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously. | WU ShaoHong DAI ErFu HUANG Mei SHAO XueMei LI ShuangCheng TAO Bo | 2007 | Chinese Science Bulletin2007，52，10： | 18 |
| 5 | Effects of longitudinal range-gorge terrain on the eco-geographical pattern in Southwest China显示文摘在纵的高耸山和深山谷之间的平行安排在本地自然环境的区别上有重要效果的瓷器西南的特殊地面模式和在这个区域的 eco 地理的模式。 1:50,000 纵的范围峡区域( LRGR )的数字举起模型( DEM )数据,从车站建立的气象学的观察数据到 2010 ,水文学观察数据,规范的差别植被索引( NDVI )和网象 1:1,000,000 植被类型数据一样的 MOD13 和 MOD17 的主要生产率( NPP )产品被使用。包括大气的蒸汽内容,降水,干旱 / 湿度索引,表面流量,和温度索引包括的表面的潮湿索引平均温度,年度积累的温度,全部的太阳的放射被选择。在这个区域基于 ANUSPLIN 花键功能, GIS 空间分析,小浪分析和风景模式分析,地区性的区别特征和热水的模式,生态系统结构和功能的主要控制的因素被分析在 eco 地理的元素的地区性的区别上揭示地面模式的效果。结果显示出那:在 LRGR 由地面模式,潮湿,温度和热影响了作为断断续续的纬差别和连续经纱扩展显示出重要分发特征。纵的山和山谷不仅在主要表面材料和精力的转移上有纵贯的走廊功能和散开效果,而且有东方西方障碍功能和堵住的效果。特殊地志的模式在植被风景差异和生态系统结构和功能的空间模式上有重要影响,它是植被风景差异和生态系统的空间分发上的主要控制的因素。小浪变化分析反映环境因素, NDVI 和 NPP 的空间 anisotropy,当小浪一致性分析象与控制度的量的关系一样在 NDVI 和 NPP 的空间分发上揭示控制因素时。在 LRGR 的特殊地面模式是在这个区域的 eco 地理的地区性的区别上的主要影响因素。当在 LRGR 的 eco 地理的地区性的系统的主要典型、特殊空间特征被形成,在 zonality 和 non-zonality 的联合效果下面,有走廊障碍的法律工作。 | PAN Tao WU Shaohong HE Daming DAI Erfu LIU Yujie | 2012 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2012，22，5： | 13 |
| 6 | The Belt and Road:Geographical pattern and regional risks显示文摘Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era,aiming at green,health,intellect and peace and the joint developme nt with people of the coun tries along the route.Systematic an alysis on envir on mental characteristics,evolutionary tendency and future risks are certainly the scie ntific fun dame ntals of sustainable development for the Belt and Road construction.Applied remote sensing monitoring,statistical analysis,this paper investigates the regional characteristics of climate,topography,soil,hydrology,vegetation cover and terrestrial ecosystems production,as well as socio-economic conditions.Based on the regional characteristics,the Belt and Road is divided into 9 sub-regions:Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate,Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate,Central and West Asia arid sub-region,Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate,Pakistan arid sub-region,Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate,Eastern China monsoon sub-region,Northwest China arid sub-region and Tibetan Plateau sub-region.Combining modeling simulation with seenario projections,natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of extreme events including heat waves,droughts and floods in the coming 30 years(2021-2050).Results show that,on the basis of the regional framework,the western Eurasia would be a warming trend;both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in high temperature and heat waves risk;Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate in high drought risk;Bangladesh-lndia-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate as well as Eastern China in high risk of flooding. | WU Shaohong LIU Lulu LIU Yanhua GAO Jiangbo DAI Erfu FENG Aiqing WANG Wentao | 2019 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2019，29，4： | 11 |
| 7 | A gradient analysis on urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern between 1985 and 2000 in the Pearl River Delta, China显示文摘Urbanization is an irreversible trend world- wide,especially in rapidly developing China.Accelerated urbanization has resulted in rapid urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern changes.Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban land use and landscape pattem not only can reveal the characteristics of social transfer and economic development,but also can provide insights into the driving mechanisms of land use changes.In this study,we integrated remote sensing (RS),geographic information system (GIS),landscape metrics,and gradient analysis to quantitatively compare the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use,urban sprawl,and landscape pattern for nine cities in the Pearl River Delta from 1985-2000. For the whole study region,urbanization was obvious.The results show an increase in urban buildup land and shrinkage of cropland in the Pearl River Delta.However, the nine cities differed greatly in terms of the process and magnitude of urban sprawl for both the spatial and temporal dimensions.This was most evident for the cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.Gradient analysis on urban landscape changes could deepen understanding of the stages of urban development and provide a scientific foundation for future urban planning and land management strategies in China. | Erfu DAI Zhuo WU Xiaodian DU | 2018 | Frontiers of Earth Science2018，12，4： | 8 |
| 8 | Research on barrier function and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of vegetation in southern LRGR显示文摘 | HAO Chengyuan DAI Erfu WU Shaohong ZHOU Changhai WANG Hao PAN Tao | 2006 | Chinese Science Bulletin2006，51，B11： | 7 |
| 9 | Spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry conditions from 1961 to 2015 in China显示文摘As an important part of the regional environment, the wet-dry climate condition is determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration(expressed as ETo). Based on weather station data, this study first calculated ETo by using the FAO56Penman-Monteith model. Then, the dryness index K(ratio of ETo to precipitation) was used to study the spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry condition in China from 1961 to 2015; moreover, dominant climatic factors of the wet-dry condition change were discussed. The annual precipitation and ETo of the Qinling-Huaihe line were close to a balance(K≈1.0). The annual precipitation in most areas exceeded the ETo in the south of this line and the east of Hengduan Mountains(K<1.0), where the climate is wet.Furthermore, the precipitation in the northwest inland areas of China, where the climate is dry, was markedly lower than ETo(K≥4.0). The overall annual K of China fluctuated around the 55-year mean and its linear trend was not significant. However, a relatively wet period of about 10 yr(1987–1996) was recorded. The overall annual K of China showed strong cyclicality on the time scale of 3, 7–8, 11 and 26–28 yr, and regional differences of the annual K trends and cyclicality were large. The degrees of wetness in the Northwest China and western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were substantially increased, whereas the degrees of dryness in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan Basin, and Loess Plateau were markedly increased. The linear trend of the annual K in most regions of China was not significant, and the annual K of most areas in China showed strong cyclicality on the 8–14 yr time scale.Precipitation was the dominant factor of wet-dry condition change in most areas, especially in North China, where the annual K change was highly correlated with precipitation. | YUAN QuanZhi WU ShaoHong DAI ErFu ZHAO DongSheng ZHANG XueRu REN Ping | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，11： | 6 |
| 10 | Vapor corridor phenomenon and response of vegetation NPP in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region显示文摘 | ZHOU Changhai WU Shaohong DAI Erfu HAO Chengyuan PAN Tao | 2006 | Chinese Science Bulletin2006，51，B11： | 6 |
| 11 | Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass, a case study in Taihe County of China显示文摘象陆地使用那样的全球、地区性的环境变化和气候变化在森林上有显著地综合、交互的效果。这些综合效果将无疑改变分发,函数和森林生态系统的继任进程。为了适应这些,变化,理解他们的单个、综合的效果是必要的。在这研究,我们由使用联合模型获得复杂生态的过程的更好的理解建议了一个框架。我们为陆地使用和陆地盖子变化( ABM/LUCC )联合了一个基于代理人的模型,一个生态系统过程模型( PnET-II ),并且一个森林动态风景模型( LANDIS-II )到模仿森林的变化未葬由陆路被驾驶的生物资源( AGB )为在南部的中国的 Taihe 县的 2010-2050 的时期的使用和气候变化因素,副热带的具球果的种植园在此统治。我们进行了一系列陆地使用和气候变化情形在森林 AGB 比较差别。结果显示出那:(1 ) 打使用,包括镇扩大,采伐森林和森林变换和气候变化是可能的在不久的将来在 Taihe 影响森林 AGB 县。(2 ) 尽管气候变化将做好贡献到森林 AGB 的增加,在森林 AGB 在快速的减少打使用变化罐头结果并且在综合模拟起一个重要作用。在综合情形下面的森林 AGB 在 53.7% 减少了(RCP2.6 + 陆地使用) , 57.2%(RCP4.5 + 陆地使用) ,并且 56.9%(RCP8.5 + 陆地使用) 在 2050,它没有陆地使用,与在分开的 RCP 下面的结果相比骚乱。(3 ) 框架能提供 a coupled 方法更好理解复杂、交互的生态的过程,它可以为适应打使用和气候变化提供一些支持,改进并且优化种植园结构和功能,并且为持续森林管理开发措施。 | WU Zhuo DAI Erfu GE Quansheng XI Weimin WANG Xiaofan | 2017 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2017，27，2： | 5 |
| 12 | Detecting the storage and change on topsoil organic carbon in grasslands of Inner Mongolia from 1980s to 2010s显示文摘土壤碳隐遁和潜力是在全球碳研究的一个焦点的问题。在全球变化,尺寸的评价以及它土壤的变化的背景下面,器官的碳(SOC ) 存储是很重要的。在 20112012 期间从第二国家土壤调查和地调查把数据基于土壤,由使用在采样土壤数据和遥感数据之间的回归方法,这篇论文试图调查表层土( 020 厘米)的空间分发和变化在在1980年代和2010年代之间的内部蒙古的草地的器官的碳存储。结果显示出那:(1 ) 在在 1980 年代和 2010 年代之间的内部蒙古的草地的 SOC 存储被估计是 2.05 和 2.17 Pg C,与 3.48 和 3.69 kg C | DAI Erfu ZHAI Ruixue GE Quansheng WU Xiuqin | 2014 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2014，24，6： | 4 |
| 13 | SOC storage and potential of grasslands from 2000 to 2012 in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, China显示文摘Grassland ecosystem is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle system. Clear comprehension of soil organic carbon(SOC) storage and potential of grasslands is very important for the effective management of grassland ecosystems. Grasslands in Inner Mongolia have undergone evident impacts from human activities and natural factors in recent decades. To explore the changes of carbon sequestration capacity of grasslands from 2000 to 2012, we carried out studies on the estimation of SOC storage and potential of grasslands in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, China based on field investigations and MODIS image data. First, we calculated vegetation cover using the dimidiate pixel model based on MODIS-EVI images. Following field investigations of aboveground biomass and plant height, we used a grassland quality evaluation model to get the grassland evaluation index, which is typically used to represent grassland quality. Second, a correlation regression model was established between grassland evaluation index and SOC density. Finally, by this regression model, we calculated the SOC storage and potential of the studied grasslands. Results indicated that SOC storage increased with fluctuations in the study area, and the annual changes varied among different sub-regions. The SOC storage of grasslands in 2012 increased by 0.51×1012 kg C compared to that in 2000. The average carbon sequestration rate was 0.04×1012 kg C/a. The slope of the values of SOC storage showed that SOC storage exhibited an overall increase since 2000, particularly for the grasslands of Hulun Buir city and Xilin Gol League, where the typical grassland type was mainly distributed. Taking the SOC storage under the best grassland quality between 2000 and 2012 as a reference, this study predicted that the SOC potential of grasslands in central and eastern Inner Mongolia in 2012 is 1.38×1012 kg C. This study will contribute to researches on related methods and fundamental database, as well as provide a reference for the protection of grassland ecosystems and the formulation of local policies on sustainable grassland development. | TIAN Zheng WU Xiuqin DAI Erfu ZHAO Dongsheng | 2016 | Journal of Arid Land2016，8，3： | 3 |
| 14 | STATISTICAL RELATIONS BETWEEN GEOMORPHIC PARAMETERS——A CASE STUDY OF THE YUNNAN REACH OF THE LANCANGJIANG RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN CHINA显示文摘The properties of rivers and their catchments can be expressed by statistical relationships between geomorphic parameters. These statistical relationships may reveal some inherent differences in geomorphic evolution for different reaches or different order tributaries of a river basin. A case study was undertaken of the Yunnan reach of the Langcangjiang River. The catchment area, channel length and gradient of the first-, second- and third-order tributaries all with catchment areas larger than 100 km2 in the Yunnan reach were the main geomorphic parameters evaluated. The correlation between catchment area and channel length as well as between catchment area and channel gradient with respect to the total tributaries, different reach tributaries, and different order tributaries were revealed using statistical methods. In general, the channel length as a function of catchment area, was best expressed by a quadratic function where channel length increases with increasing catchment area (half parabola), while the channel gradient as a function of catchment area is best expressed by an exponential decay function. Comparison of the best-fit formulas revealed the following phenomena: the lower Yunnan reach tributaries and the first-order tributaries have a dominant effect on geomorphic parameters of the total tributaries. In addition, the statistical relationships indicate that the river geomorphic system in the upper and lower Yunnan reaches evolved differently. This study method used to differentiate river characteristics by determining statistical relationships between geomorphic parameters may be extended to other rivers and their catchments. | Suiji WANG Shaohong WU Erfu DAI | 2007 | International Journal of Sediment Research2007，22，2： | 3 |
| 15 | Spatial variability on vegetation parameters in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region显示文摘 | DAI Erfu WU Shaohong LI Shuangcheng WANG Suiji ZHOU Changhai HAO Chenyuan | 2006 | Chinese Science Bulletin2006，51，B11： | 3 |
| 16 | Eco-geographic Environment and Regional Development in Xinjiang of China显示文摘The study on relationship between eco-geographic environment(EGE) and regional development(RD) is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the comprehensive study on nature and human factors and regional coordination development.Based on the evaluation index system and models of EGE and RD, Quadrant Analysis Method(QAM) and the Coordination Degree and Coordinated Development Degree Model(CDCDDM) were applied to studying the relationship between EGE and RD in Xinjiang in this paper.The results show that Xinjiang can be divided into four type regions according to the relationship between EGE and RD, namely high coordination region(HCR), overloading development region(ODR), low coordination region(LCR) and potential development region(PDR).Most areas of Xinjiang belong to LCR which can not bear a larger population and support large-scale economic development.HCR, ODR and PDR, which are mainly distributed in piedmont oases and take basin as unit, should be focused on in the development of Xinjiang.The EGE has great influence on RD, and there is serious contradiction between them.Relevant suggestions on development strategies were put forward according to the character of different type regions, and the key regions of macro-layout of RD in Xinjiang were pointed out. | XIA Fuqiang DAI Erfu ZHENG Du WU Shaohong YANG Qinye | 2010 | Chinese Geographical Science2010，20，1： | 2 |
| 17 | Comparability in geomorphic evolution of the three rivers in the northern Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region: Evidence of statistic relationships between geomorphic parameters and analyses of cause of formation显示文摘 | WANG Suiji WU Shaohong HE Daming DAI Erfu ZHOU Changhai WEI Quanwei | 2006 | Chinese Science Bulletin2006，51，B11： | 2 |
| 18 | Progress and prospect of research on forest landscape model显示文摘森林风景模型(FLM ) 是森林生态系统结构和功能的确定的表示的一个效率工具。根据识别 FLM ,根据开发的阶段,这篇论文总结模型的发展特征,它包括数学模型,的理论基础看台规模的 FLM ,空间风景模型,的主要开发生态系统过程模型的快速的开发作为优先级,并且开发多因素驾驶的结构和过程的时期。根据不同 FLM 的特征,这篇论文以机制,性质和应用程序分类存在 FLM,并且详细描述模型的不同类型的鉴定,优点和劣势。它从是空间模式和生态的过程的变化的二个方面总结并且评估存在模型的主要应用程序领域。最后,这份报纸以后论述 FLM 挑战和开发的方向,包括:(1 ) 森林管理目的实际策略上的更突出的服务;(2 ) 多模块和多插件到的建设处于各种各样的条件满足风景研究需求;(3 ) 高分辨率的采纳空间时间的数据;(4 ) 多版本的结构的建设模块;(5 ) 改进模型申请的空间适用性。 | DAI Erfu WU Zhuo WANG Xiaofan FU Hua XI Weimin PAN Tao | 2015 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2015，25，1： | 2 |
| 19 | Identification and Categorization of Climate Change Risks显示文摘The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that 'uncer-tainty' could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which 'confidence' and 'likelihood' , the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might lay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change. | ZHANG Yuchong WU Shaohong DAI Erfu LIU Dengwei YIN Yunhe | 2008 | Chinese Geographical Science2008，18，3： | 2 |
| 20 | Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin显示文摘Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively. | He Shanfeng Ge Quansheng Wu Shaohong Dai Erfu Shi Chunjian Li Mingqi | 2010 | Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment2010，8，3： | 1 |
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