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| 1 | 一种农户与经销商合作的市场风险分担模型显示文摘研究面临市场风险时,何种风险分担机制能更有效提升农户与经销商合作的稳定性。首先,市场行情差时,经销商不履行已签协议的背叛行为,本质是合作协议中没有合理的风险分担约定,或约定不合理。只有当违约远期回报大于当期履约收益时,参与者才有背叛的动力,现有常见的约定收购价格上下限作法,未对合作方的远期回报作精细和理性计算,易于导致违约发生。其次,依据合作博弈中稳定性及夏普利值的成本分担原理,建立了由一个经销商和多个农户构成的多人合作博弈模型,并以此为基础推导核的解空间及以资源禀赋多寡为加权值的风险分担公理值。讨论了特定管理背景下加权夏普利值与核稳定的影响因素与主要作用机理。本文所创立的风险分担理论框架与分析模型,已能够对微观农户合作进行风险分担具体计算和分析,后续无论从宏观角度讨论市场价格波动、还是微观角度研究个体风险偏好,都可以此(或至少以此路径)为基础。 | 章德宾 徐娟 Paul D.Mitchell 李崇光 | 2017 | 中国管理科学2017，25，7： | 5 |
| 2 | The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate Services——Examples in China显示文摘Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service;bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle. | Chris D.HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Tyrone DUNBAR Philip E.BETT Joanne CAMP Timothy D.MITCHELL Edward POPE | 2020 | Journal of Meteorological Research2020，34，5： | 2 |
| 3 | Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China显示文摘A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk for the East China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon season.Test forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in East China. The forecast method shows significant skill for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk in East China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest skill for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in East China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season. | Joanne CAMP Philip E.BETT Nicola GOLDING Chris D.HEWITT Timothy D.MITCHELL Adam A.SCAIFE | 2020 | Journal of Meteorological Research2020，34，5： | 2 |
| 4 | An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids显示文摘 | Timothy D.Mitchell Philip D.Jones | 2005 | Int. J. Climatol2005，，6： | 1 |
| 5 | 中国外交政策的软实力显示文摘正如北京奥运会期间所见证的,中国政府高度重视其国际形象。在这篇节选文章中,C弗雷德·伯格斯滕、查尔斯·弗里曼、尼古拉斯·拉迪和德里克·米切尔阐明了中国协同努力使其有别于西方世界并对世界文化做出独一无二的贡献。 | C.F.Bergsten C.Freeman N.Lardy D.Mitchell 何金娥 | 2009 | 英语文摘2009，，4： | 0 |
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