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		题名	作者	年代	出处	被引量
	1	Return direction forecasting:a conditional autoregressive shape model with beta density显示文摘This paper derives a new decomposition of stock returns using price extremes and proposes a conditional autoregressive shape(CARS)model with beta density to predict the direction of stock returns.The CARS model is continuously valued,which makes it different from binary classification models.An empirical study is performed on the US stock market,and the results show that the predicting power of the CARS model is not only statistically significant but also economically valuable.We also compare the CARS model with the probit model,and the results demonstrate that the proposed CARS model outperforms the probit model for return direction forecasting.The CARS model provides a new framework for return direction forecasting.	Haibin Xie Yuying Sun Pengying Fan	2023	Financial Innovation2023，9，1：	0
	2	Private banking development in China under two organizational structures:Economic analysis from an organizational innovation perspective显示文摘This paper investigates optimal decisions for private banking development in China under two innovative organizational structures—the big retail mode(BRM)and the independent development mode(IDM).Under the BRM,the retail and private banking divisions form a cooperative relationship wherein the former transfers highnet-worth customers to the latter.In addition,retail banking receives a share of private banking revenues.We investigate the optimal revenue-sharing ratio between the two divisions and the optimal effort by private banking to serve transferred customers within the cooperative relationship.The analytical results show that as the private banking division becomes more developed,the optimal revenue-sharing ratio decreases,and the private banking division’s optimal effort to serve transferred customers decreases because it puts more effort into acquiring new customers.Under the IDM,the two divisions form a competitive relationship since they compete to acquire customers independently.We investigate customer acquisition efforts in this interdivisional competition.Optimal customer acquisition efforts by both divisions increase in potential assets and rates of return.This paper contributes to the literature by(1)analyzing financial innovation by private banks from an organizational perspective;(2)providing an economic analysis for private banking development in China.	He Liu Yun Bai Zhiguang Huang Han Qiao Shouyang Wang	2023	Financial Innovation2023，9，1：	0

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