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| 1 | Credit Risk Model Taking Account of Inflation and Its Contribution to Macroeconomic Discussion on Effect of Inflation on Output Growth显示文摘We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations. | Valery V.Shemetov | 2020 | Management Studies2020，8，6： | 2 |
| 2 | Effect of Corporate Debt on Firm Value显示文摘We have shown that three classic works considering the effects of corporate debt on the firm value,namely,Modigliani and Miller(1958,1963),Merton(1974),and Leland(1994),are wrong.Their main mistake is ignoring the business security expenses,BSEs.We suggest the model taking account of BSEs and apply it to the analysis of debt influence on the firm value and survival.Our modeling demonstrates that(1)the debt affects the firm value and its survival,(2)this influence is negative,diminishing the firm value and its chances to survive,(3)the pressure of the negative effect of debt increases as the debt grows,provoking the firm default.The debt can be beneficial for the firm if the loan is taken to improve its technology.The model helps estimate the chances to succeed in the technological modernization for various parameters of the firm and its business environment;and by that,to find the technology most suitable for the firm.It is shown that there is a serious problem in reading the market signals concerning a firm and using this information to control this firm. | Valery V.Shemetov | 2021 | Management Studies2021，9，5： | 1 |
| 3 | Some Financial Problems in the Light of EMM Results:Asset Pricing and Efficient Portfolio Allocation显示文摘Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assumptions about its properties.Some mistakes in asset pricing come from the assumption of symmetry in return distributions.Some errors in efficient portfolio allocation follow from Markowitz’s approach when applying it to portfolio optimization of skewed asset returns.The Extended Merton model(EMM),generating skewed return distributions,demonstrates that(i)in skewed asset returns,the variance is not an adequate measure of risks and(ii)positive skewness in the asset returns comes together with a high default probability.Thus,the maximization of the mean portfolio returns and skewness with controlled variance used in mainstream papers can critically increase portfolio risks.We present the new settings of the optimal portfolio allocation problem leading to less risky efficient portfolios than the solutions suggested in all previous papers. | Valery V.Shemetov | 2022 | Management Studies2022，10，5： | 0 |
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