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12021年河南极端降水的气候变化归因:对流组织的影响显示文摘本文研究了河南“21·7”极端降水事件的气候归因.研究利用区域云解析模式模拟,对该事件采用了基于准地转单柱模拟方法的条件归因.在准地转单柱模拟中,大尺度垂直运动是由简化的准地转垂直速度方程在由动力强迫(基于观测的再分析数据)和潜热释放(基于云解析模拟)共同作用下计算得到.研究发现,气候变暖可能导致区域尺度和台站尺度强降水的显著增强,分别为10~14%K^(-1)(取决于对流组织)和7~9%K^(-1).通过比较无对流组织、由地表温度异常导致的团状对流组织和由垂直风切变导致的线状对流组织这三种情况,我们进一步探讨对流组织如何影响极端降水及其气候响应.研究发现,线状对流对大尺度动力强迫更为敏感,其造成的极端降水在区域和台站尺度上都较无组织的对流更强;而团状对流较无组织的对流只稍微增强了台站尺度极端降水.由于线状对流具有更强的潜热反馈,其区域尺度极端降水气候敏感性较无组织对流大2~3%K^(-1).同时,模拟结果没有发现台站尺度极端降水气候敏感性对于对流组织的系统性依赖.秦汉 袁为 王君 陈阳 戴攀曦 Adam H.SOBEL 孟智勇 聂绩 2022中国科学:地球科学2022,52,10:1
2Climate change attribution of the 2021 Henan extreme precipitation: Impacts of convective organization显示文摘In this study, we investigate the climate attribution of the 21·7 Henan extreme precipitation event. A conditional storyline attribution method is used, based on simulations of the event with a small-domain high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Large-scale vertical motion is determined by an interactive representation of large-scale dynamics based on the quasigeostrophic omega equation, with dynamical forcing terms taken from observation-based reanalysis data. It is found that warming may lead to significant intensification of both regional-scale(10–14% K, depending on convective organization) and station-scale precipitation extremes(7–9% K^(-1)). By comparing clustered convection organized by a localized surface temperature anomaly and squall-line convection organized by vertical wind shear, we further explored how convective organization may modify precipitation extremes and their responses to warming. It is found that shear convective organization is much more sensitive to large-scale dynamic forcing and results in much higher precipitation extremes at both regional and station scales than unorganized convection is. The clustered convection increases station-scale precipitation only slightly during heavy precipitation events. For regional-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, shear-organized convection has a larger sensitivity by 2–3% Kthan that of unorganized convection, over a wide temperature range, due to its stronger diabatic heating feedback. For the station-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, no systemic dependence on convective organization is found in our simulations.Han QIN Wei YUAN Jun WANG Yang CHEN Panxi DAI Adam HSOBEL Zhiyong MENG Ji NIE 2022Science China Earth Sciences2022,65,10:0
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