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| 1 | Optimal precursors of double-gyre regime transitions with an adjoint-free method显示文摘In this paper, we find the optimal precursors which can cause double-gyre regime transitions based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Firstly, we simulate the multiple-equilibria regimes of double-gyre circulation under different viscosity coefficient and obtain the bifurcation diagram, then choose two equilibrium states (called jet-up state and jet-down state) as reference states respectively, propose Principal Component Analysis-based Simulated Annealing (PCASA) algorithm to solve CNOP-type initial perturbations which can induce double-gyre regime transitions between jet-up state and jet-down state. PCASA algorithm is an adjoint-free method which searches optimal solution randomly in the whole solution space. In addition, we investigate CNOP-type initial perturbations how to evolve with time. The results show:(1) the CNOP-type perturbations present a two-cell structure, and gradually evolves into a three-cell structure at predictive time;(2) by superimposing CNOP-type perturbations on the jet-up state and integrating ROMS, double-gyre circulation transfers from jet-up state to jet-down state, and vice versa, and random initial perturbations don't cause the transitions, which means CNOP-type perturbations are the optimal precursors of double-gyre regime transitions;(3) by analyzing the transition process of double-gyre regime transitions, we find that CNOP-type initial perturbations obtain energy from the background state through both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities, and barotropic instability contributes more significantly to the fast-growth of the perturbations. The optimal precursors and the dynamic mechanism of double-gyre regime transitions revealed in this paper have an important significance to enhance the predictability of double-gyre circulation. | YUAN Shijin LI Mi WANG Qiang ZHANG Kun ZHANG Huazhen MU Bin | 2019 | Journal of Oceanology and Limnology2019，37，4： | 1 |
| 2 | 条件非线性最优扰动方法在黑潮目标观测研究中的应用显示文摘对近年来利用条件非线性最优扰动(Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation,CNOP)方法开展的黑潮目标观测研究进行了总结,主要包括日本南部黑潮路径变异的目标观测研究、黑潮延伸体模态转变的目标观测研究和源区黑潮流量变化的目标观测研究。通过计算这些事件的CNOP型扰动,发现这些事件的CNOP型扰动具有局地特征,可以作为实施目标观测的敏感区。理想回报试验结果表明,如果在由CNOP方法识别的敏感区内实施目标观测,则会大幅度提高上述事件的预报技巧。 | 张星 穆穆 王强 张坤 | 2018 | 海洋气象学报2018，38，1： | 1 |
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