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| 1 | 基于Flow-R模型的八一沟泥石流危险性评价显示文摘目前泥石流危险性评价方法通常是一条泥石流沟对应一个危险等级。Flow-R模型将泥石流源区识别与泥石流运动相结合计算泥石流的危险概率,能够评价一条泥石流沟内不同部位的危险性。为丰富泥石流评价方法的应用研究及探究单沟内泥石流危险分布特征,以八一沟为研究区,在确定八一沟泥石流源区识别阈值和运动参数的基础上,用Flow-R模型对泥石流可能的危害范围进行模拟计算,并用混淆矩阵对模拟结果进行评估,最后对八一沟流域不同部位进行了泥石流危险性评价。结果表明:(1)泥石流源区主要分布于沟道20°~50°坡度范围和1 400~1 600 m高程范围内,沟顶细小汇水沟道为泥石流提供了丰富的活动物质;(2)泥石流危险区域大致分布在沟道左右40 m范围,占整个研究区域的20.06%;极高危险区分布于沟道中心,危险性由沟道中心向两边逐渐降低;(3)Flow-R应用于研究区的正确率为84.18%,给出的泥石流危险区图合理,能够反映研究区泥石流的基本危险特征。 | 聂银瓶 李秀珍 | 2019 | 自然灾害学报2019，0，1： | 6 |
| 2 | Development of a region-partitioning method for debris flow susceptibility mapping显示文摘Debris flow susceptibility mapping(DFSM)has been reported in many studies,however,the irrational use of the same conditioning factor system for DFSM in regional-scale has not been thoroughly resolved.In this paper,a region-partitioning method that is based on the topographic characteristics of watershed units was developed with the objective of establishing multiple conditioning factor systems for regional-scale DFSM.First,watershed units were selected as the mapping units and created throughout the entire research area.Four topographical factors,namely,elevation,slope,aspect and relative height difference,were selected as the basis for clustering watershed units.The k-means clustering analysis was used to cluster the watershed units according to their topographic characteristics to partition the study area into several parts.Then,the information gain ratio method was used to filter out superfluous factors to establish conditioning factor systems in each region for the subsequent debris flow susceptibility modeling.Last,a debris flow susceptibility map of the whole study area was acquired by merging the maps from all parts.DFSM of Yongji County in Jilin Province,China was selected as a case study,and the analytical hierarchy process method was used to conduct a comparative analysis to evaluate the performance of the region-partitioning method.The area under curve(AUC)values showed that the partitioning of the study area into two parts improved the prediction rate from 0.812 to 0.916.The results demonstrate that the region-partitioning method on the basis of topographic characteristics of watershed units can realize more reasonable regional-scale DFSM.Hence,the developed region-partitioning method can be used as a guide for regional-scale DFSM to mitigate the imminent debris flow risk. | QIAO Shuang-shuang QIN Sheng-wu SUN Jing-bo CHE Wen-chao YAO Jing-yu SU Gang CHEN Yang NNANWUBA Uzodigwe Emmanuel | 2021 | Journal of Mountain Science2021，18，5： | 1 |
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