| 1 | 基于CMIP5模式对四川盆地湿季降水与极端降水的研究显示文摘四川盆地是中国重要的农业和经济中心,湿季降水尤其极端降水情况显得尤为重要。基于“国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段”(CMIP5)的多个模式结果评估未来湿季降水和极端降水的可能变化。首先,利用CRU数据检验了模式对1971-2000年5-9月四川盆地降水的模拟能力。结果显示,31个模式中有17个模式的模拟能力较好,通过99%的空间相关性信度检验,重现了“东多西少”的空间形态。有21个模式与观测值的标准差之比小于2.5,所有模式的平均偏差率都小于50%。在此基础上,选取表现最好的3个模式,在订正后做模式集合平均(MME),展示在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5的情形下,21世纪初期(2010-2039年)、中期(2040-2069年)、末期(2070-2099年)四川盆地湿季平均降水和湿季极端降水阈值的空间分布特征。结果显示,在RCP2.6的情形下,相对于1971-2000年的气候平均态,四川盆地湿季降水自东向西呈现“减-增-减”的形势,并且随着时间变化并无明显变化。在RCP4.5与RCP8.5的情形下,特征与RCP2.6不同,自东向西呈现“增-减-增”的形势。盆地东部湿季平均降水普遍增多,部分区域的变率达到了20%。对于极端降水阈值空间分布,特征与平均降水类似,三种情形下高值区均为在盆地中部偏东的一条南北走向的狭长带状区域。该区域内包括了成都、雅安、眉山、乐山等四川主要城市,并且随时间变化,该区域还有扩大的趋势,而RCP8.5模拟的降水要显著多于另两种情形。此外研究还发现,在全球变暖的背景下,四川盆地某一区域湿季平均降水减少的情况下,其极端降水阈值一定降低,反之不一定成立。只有当平均降水增幅超过10%时,该地区极端降水阈值才会增加。 | 于灏 周筠珺 李倩 姜琪 邱威腾 吴笛 崔雪锋 | 2020 | 高原气象2020，39，1： | 15 |
| 2 | Analysing the relationship between drought and soil erosion using vegetation health index and RUSLE models in Godavari middle sub-basin,India显示文摘Drought is a natural phenomenon posing severe implications for soil,groundwater and agricultural yield.It has been recognized as one of the most pervasive global change drivers to affect the soil.Soil being a weakly renewable resource takes a long time to form,but it takes no time to degrade.However,the response of soil to drought conditions as soil loss is not manifested in the existing literature.Thus,this study makes a concerted effort to analyze the relationship between drought conditions and soil erosion in the middle sub-basin of the Godavari River in India.MODIS remote sensing data was utilized for driving drought indices during 2000-2019.Firstly,we constricted Temperature condition index(TCI)and Vegetation Condition Index(VCI)from Land Surface Temperature(LST)and Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI)derived from MODIS data.TCI and VCI were then integrated to determine the Vegetation Health Index(VHI).Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)was utilized for estimating soil loss.The relationship between drought condition and vegetation was ascertained using the Pearson correlation.Most of the northern and southern watersheds experienced severe drought condition in the sub-basin during2000-2019.The mean frequency of the drought occurrence was 7.95 months.The average soil erosion in the sub-basin was estimated to be 9.88 t ha^(-1)year^(-1).A positive relationship was observed between drought indices and soil erosion values(r value being 0.35).However,wide variations were observed in the distribution of spatial correlation.Among various factors,the slope length and steepness were found to be the main drivers of soil erosion in the sub-basin.Thus,the study calls for policy measures to lessen the impact of drought and soil erosion. | Md Masroor Haroon Sajjad Sufia Rehman Roshani Singh Md Hibjur Rahaman Mehebub Sahana Raihan Ahmed Ram Avtar | 2022 | Geoscience Frontiers2022，13，2： | 4 |
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