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| 1 | 珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测显示文摘珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明:受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。 | 康蕾 马丽 刘毅 | 2015 | 地理学报2015，70，9： | 15 |
| 2 | 基于作物损失率的风暴潮增水灾害对农业产量影响评估--以珠江三角洲地区为例显示文摘在借鉴相关经验的基础上建立风暴潮增水农业产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,并以2010年为例,估算并分析了不同风暴潮增水情景下珠三角地区耕地受灾空间分布特征及农业产量损失情况。结果表明,低估计情况下研究区耕地风暴潮淹没总面积占耕地总面积3.61%,高估计时该比重增加到5.47%,其中广州、江门、珠海、汕尾、惠州、佛山等地市受风暴潮影响耕地淹没情况较为严重;且随风暴潮灾害的加剧,多地市淹没高度在最大值150 cm以上的耕地淹没面积增加显著。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜的损失产量普遍较高,其次是稻谷,花生受灾害影响较小。其中蔬菜灾损最严重的为广州,稻谷损失最严重的为江门。本文较为细致地刻画了珠三角地区海平面上升及风暴潮增水灾害对农业的影响,以期为珠江三角洲地区作物种植布局、生产以及防灾减灾提供定量和定位的科学依据。 | 康蕾 马丽 刘毅 | 2015 | 灾害学2015，30，4： | 3 |
| 3 | 珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测(英文)显示文摘The Pearl River Delta on China's coast is a region that is seriously threatened by sea level rise and storm surges induced by global climate change, which causes flooding of large areas of farmland and huge agricultural losses. Based on relevant research and experience, a loss evaluation model of farmland yield caused by sea level rise and storm surges was established. In this model, the area of submerged farmland, area of crops, and per unit yield of every type of crop were considered, but the impact of wind, flooding time, changes in land use and plant structure were not considered for long-term prediction. Taking the Pearl River Delta region in Guangdong as the study area, we estimated and analyzed the spatial distribution and loss of farmlands for different scenarios in the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, using a digital elevation model, land-use data, local crop structure, rotation patterns, and yield loss ratios for different submerged heights obtained from field survey and questionnaires. The results show that the proportion of submerged farmlands and losses of agricultural production in the Pearl River Delta region will increase gradually from 2030 to 2100. Yangjiang, Foshan, and Dongguan show obvious increases in submerged farmlands, while Guangzhou and Zhuhai show slow increases. In agricultural losses, vegetables would sustain the largest loss of production, followed by rice and peanuts. The greatest loss of rice crops would occur in Jiangmen, and the loss of vegetable crops would be high in Shanwei and Jiangmen. Although losses of peanut crops are generally lower, Jiangmen, Guangzhou, and Shanwei would experience relatively high losses. Finally, some measures to defend against storm surges are suggested, such as building sea walls and gates in Jiangmen, Huizhou, and Shanwei, enforcing ecological protection to reduce destruction from storm surges, and strengthening disaster warning systems. | 康蕾 马丽 刘毅 | 2016 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2016，26，4： | 2 |
| 4 | Study of Vertical Breakwater Reliability Based on Copulas显示文摘The reliability of a vertical breakwater is calculated using direct integration methods based on joint density functions.The horizontal and uplifting wave forces on the vertical breakwater can be well fitted by the lognormal and the Gumbel distributions,respectively.The joint distribution of the horizontal and uplifting wave forces is analyzed using different probabilistic distributions,including the bivariate logistic Gumbel distribution,the bivariate lognormal distribution,and three bivariate Archimedean copulas functions constructed with different marginal distributions simultaneously.We use the fully nested copulas to construct multivariate distributions taking into account related variables.Different goodness fitting tests are carried out to determine the best bivariate copula model for wave forces on a vertical breakwater.We show that a bivariate model constructed by Frank copula gives the best reliability analysis,using marginal distributions of Gumbel and lognormal to account for uplifting pressure and horizontal wave force on a vertical breakwater,respectively.The results show that failure probability of the vertical breakwater calculated by multivariate density function is comparable to those by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety methods.As copulas are suitable for constructing a bivariate or multivariate joint distribution,they have great potential in reliability analysis for other coastal structures. | DONG Sheng LI Jingjing LI Xue WEI Yong | 2016 | Journal of Ocean University of China2016，15，2： | 1 |
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