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| 1 | Reliability Assessment for the Solenoid Valve of a High-Speed Train Braking System under Small Sample Size显示文摘Reliability assessment of the braking system in a high?speed train under small sample size and zero?failure data is veryimportant for safe operation. Traditional reliability assessment methods are only performed well under conditions of large sample size and complete failure data,which lead to large deviation under conditions of small sample size and zero?failure data. To improve this problem,a new Bayesian method is proposed. Based on the characteristics of the solenoid valve in the braking system of a high?speed train,the modified Weibull distribution is selected to describe the failure rate over the entire lifetime. Based on the assumption of a binomial distribution for the failure probability at censored time,a concave method is employed to obtain the relationships between accumulation failure prob?abilities. A numerical simulation is performed to compare the results of the proposed method with those obtained from maximum likelihood estimation,and to illustrate that the proposed Bayesian model exhibits a better accuracy for the expectation value when the sample size is less than 12. Finally,the robustness of the model is demonstrated by obtaining the reliability indicators for a numerical case involving the solenoid valve of the braking system,which shows that the change in the reliability and failure rate among the di erent hyperparameters is small. The method is provided to avoid misleading of subjective information and improve accuracy of reliability assessment under condi?tions of small sample size and zero?failure data. | Jian-Wei Yang Jin-Hai Wang Qiang Huang Ming Zhou | 2018 | Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering2018，31，3： | 9 |
| 2 | 基于Markov模型的多状态不可修元件可靠性评估显示文摘运用元件多状态可靠性理论建模可以克服传统二元模型进行可靠性评估造成信息遗失的缺点,提高评估结果的准确性。针对现有模型主要集中于元件渐变失效研究的现状,引入Markov过程后,阐述了元件多状态的定义,在元件多状态连续时间Markov过程推导的基础上,分别提出了元件发生渐变失效和突变失效的状态转移可靠性模型。并以某导弹延迟活门为例,建立同时发生渐变失效和突变失效的状态转移微分方程,确定了元件在指定水平下的可靠度函数,通过仿真获得了元件在确定时刻的可靠度,为基层级维修单位制定保障决策提供依据。 | 李志强 徐廷学 董琪 刘玉东 | 2017 | 电光与控制2017，24，9： | 7 |
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