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| 1 | A Factor Decomposing Model of Water Use Efficiency at Sector Level and Its Application in Beijing显示文摘The paper explores the contribution of different factors affecting water use efficiency(WUE) of each sector and explores ways to improve WUE.A new Multi-Sector and Multi-Factors Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(MLMDI) decomposition method was developed that enabled the identification of WUE by sector into 11 factors in terms of their order of importance.An application to Beijing at the 19 sector level was made for the period between 2002–2007.The water conservation effects of six measures proposed during the 12th-Five-Year-Plan of Beijing were assessed.It was found that,to decrease the transferred out and export of agriculture products and increasing water prices would be the top two most effective measures to promote water conservation.While the adjustment of direct water use structure would contribute in less significant way,the adjustment of industrial structure would have a negative effect. | LIU Xiuli HEWINGS J D Geoffrey CHEN Xikang WANG Shouyang | 2016 | Journal of Systems Science & Complexity2016，29，2： | 2 |
| 2 | Foreign Trade Survey Data:Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?显示文摘Business survey,which starts from the microeconomic level,is a widely used short-term forecasting tool in practice.In this study,the authors examine whether foreign trade survey data collected by China’s Ministry of Commerce would provide reliable forecasts of China’s foreign trade.The research procedure is designed from three perspectives including forecast information test,turning point forecast,and out-of-sample value forecast.First,Granger causality test detects whether survey data lead exports and imports.Second,business cycle analysis,a non-model based method,is performed.The authors construct composite indexes with business survey data to forecast turning points of foreign trade.Third,model-based numerical forecasting methods,including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Variables(ARIMAX)and the artificial neural networks(ANNs)models are estimated.Empirical results show that survey data granger cause imports and exports,the leading composite index provides signal for changes of trade cycles,and quantitative models including survey data generate more accurate forecasts than benchmark models.It is concluded that trade survey data has excellent predictive capabilities for imports and exports,which can offer some priorities for government policy-making and enterprise decision making. | BAI Yun WANG Shouyang ZHANG Xun | 2022 | Journal of Systems Science & Complexity2022，35，5： | 0 |
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