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| 1 | Genesis of the 2014–2016 El Nio events显示文摘The 2015/2016 El Nio was one of the strongest El Nio events in history, and this strong event was preceded by a weak El Nio in 2014. This study systematically analyzed the dynamical processes responsible for the genesis of these events. It was found that the weak 2014 El Nio had two warming phases, the spring-summer warming was produced by zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by westerly wind bursts(WWBs), and the autumn-winter warming was produced by meridional advection, surface heating as well as downwelling Kelvin waves. The 2015/2016 extreme El Nio, on the other hand, was primarily a result of sustained zonal advection and downwelling Kelvin waves driven by a series of WWBs, with enhancement from the Bjerknes positive feedback. The vast difference between these two El Nio events mainly came from the different amount of WWBs in 2014 and 2015. As compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 extreme El Nio events, the 2015/2016 El Nio exhibited some distinctive characteristics in its genesis and spatial pattern. We need to include the effects of WWBs to the theoretical framework of El Nio to explain these characteristics, and to improve our understanding and prediction of El Nio. | LIAN Tao CHEN DaKe TANG YouMin | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，9： | 9 |
| 2 | The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events显示文摘Using reanalysis data, the role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) events were analyzed. It was found that the summer predictability barrier(SPB) phenomenon exists in predictions,which is closely related to initial sea temperature errors in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with type-1 initial errors presenting a significant west-east dipole pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and type-2 initial errors showing the opposite spatial pattern. In contrast, SPB-related initial sea temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean are relatively small. The initial errors in the tropical Pacific Ocean induce anomalous winds in the tropical Indian Ocean by modulating the Walker circulation in the tropical oceans. In the first half of the prediction year, the anomalous winds, combined with the climatological winds in the tropical Indian Ocean, induce a basin-wide mode of sea surface temperature(SST) errors in the tropical Indian Ocean. With the reversal of the climatological wind in the second half of the prediction year, a west-east dipole pattern of SSTerrors appears in the tropical Indian Ocean, which is further strengthened under the Bjerknes feedback, yielding a significant SPB. Moreover, two types of precursors were also identified: a significant west-east dipole pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and relatively small temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. Under the combined effects of temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans, northwest wind anomalies appear in the tropical Indian Ocean, which induce a significant west-east dipole pattern of SST anomalies, and yield a negative IOD event. | Rong FENG Wansuo DUAN | 2018 | Science China Earth Sciences2018，61，12： | 2 |
| 3 | A brief review of ENSO theories and prediction显示文摘Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions. | Xianghui FANG Ruihuang XIE | 2020 | Science China Earth Sciences2020，63，4： | 2 |
| 4 | 不同类型El Nio事件对黑潮流域影响的统计分析显示文摘利用全球海表面温度、海面流速、海平面异常、降雨和海面风场融合及再分析资料,采用相关分析和合成分析统计诊断方法,对1979-2014年发生的东太平洋和中太平洋El Nio事件对黑潮流域的影响进行分析,为黑潮流域及我国东南部气候变化预测提供参考。研究结果表明:前者对海表面温度的影响要比后者强烈,并经历了从降温到升温的效应转换;两者对黑潮流域海流流速的影响整体上呈相反状态,前者对东海PN断面海流流速起减缓作用,而后者对其流速起加速作用;对于黑潮流域的海平面异常,两者均没有明显的规律性影响;前者会引起黑潮流域降水增多,而后者则会引起黑潮流域降水减少。因此,东太平洋和中太平洋El Nio事件对黑潮流域的影响具有明显的差异。 | 唐绍磊 于暘 杨晓峰 李紫薇 | 2015 | 海洋科学进展2015，33，4： | 2 |
| 5 | Spatiotemporal modes of global sea surface temperature variability显示文摘This study identifies the salient global modes of sea surface temperature variability based on 145 years of HadlSST data.Unlike the traditional mode identification by EOF analysis,a combination of wavelet and EOF analysis is used to extract the leading modes at distinct time scales.The spatial patterns of some well-known regional modes are recovered,with the global connection and frequency content of these modes being revealed.Our analysis indicates that,in terms of global influence,the Pacific Ocean is the major player,and the tropical Pacific is the center of action on various time scales.The Atlantic Ocean has its own outstanding modes,but their global impacts are not as strong as those from the Pacific.The Indian Ocean generally shows a passive response to the Pacific,with a basin-wide pattern in the tropics.Despite some preliminary theoretical attempts,how to elucidate the dynamics underlying the global modes of sea surface temperature variability is still an open question. | ZHANG XiangMing CHEN Chen LIAN Tao CHEN DaKe | 2017 | Science China Earth Sciences2017，60，3： | 2 |
| 6 | An intermediate coupled model for the tropical ocean-atmosphere system显示文摘An intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model is developed to simulate and predict the tropical interannual variability. Originating from the basic physical framework of the Zebiak-Cane(ZC) model, this tropical intermediate couple model(TICM) extends to the entire global tropics, with a surface heat flux parameterization and a surface wind bias correction added to improve model performance and inter-basin connections. The model well reproduces the variabilities in the tropical Pacific and Indian basins. The simulated El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) shows a period of 3–4 years and an amplitude of about 2°C, similar to those observed. The variabilities in the Indian Ocean, including the Indian Ocean basin mode(IOBM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), are also reasonably captured with a realistic relationship to the Pacific. However, the tropical Atlantic variability in the TICM has a westward bias and is overly influenced by the tropical Pacific. A 47-year hindcast experiment using the TICM for the period of 1970–2016 indicates that ENSO is the most predictable mode in the tropics. Skillful predictions of ENSO can be made one year ahead, similar to the skill of the latest version of the ZC model, while a 'spring predictability barrier' still exists as in other models. In the tropical Indian Ocean, the predictability seems much higher in the west than in the east. The correlation skill of IOD prediction reaches 0.5 at a 5-month lead, which is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. The prediction of IOD shows a significant 'winter-spring predictability barrier', implying combined influences from the tropical Pacific and the local sea-air interaction in the eastern Indian Ocean. The TICM has little predictive skill in the equatorial Atlantic for lead times longer than 3 months, which is a common problem of current climate models badly in need of further investigation. | Xunshu SONG Dake CHEN Youmin TANG Ting LIU | 2018 | Science China Earth Sciences2018，61，12： | 1 |
| 7 | 西风爆发事件对暖池厄尔尼诺和冷舌厄尔尼诺的作用——一个概念模型得到的结果显示文摘本文通过1个概念模型讨论了西风爆发事件对暖池厄尔尼诺与冷舌厄尔尼诺两种事件的作用,并讨论了它们对应的物理机制。结果表明,由西风爆发所诱导的纬向平流异常和海洋波动对厄尔尼诺的多样性有着至关重要的作用。由于模型包含了最基本的海-洋与大气物理变量及其相互作用机制,本结果可为解释西风爆发事件对厄尔尼诺多样性影响研究提供最基本的框架。 | 连涛 何海伦 | 2014 | 海洋学研究2014，32，3： | 1 |
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