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| 1 | 西北太平洋迅速加强热带气旋的统计特征和识别预报试验显示文摘利用2000—2014年热带气旋(TC)最佳路径、最终分析资料和静止卫星红外云顶亮温(TBB)资料,对比分析了西北太平洋(WNP),以及南海(SCS)的迅速加强(RI),与非迅速加强(non-RI)TC样本的环境背景和TBB统计特征,其中non-RI样本细分为不同的强度变化率即:缓慢加强(SI),强度稳定、缓慢减弱和迅速减弱等。结果表明,相对于SI,WNP海域的RI样本处于海表温度较高、海洋上层热容量较大、最大可能强度较大、高层辐散较强、风垂直切变(VWS)较弱和高层纬向风(U200)偏东分量较大等环境背景条件下;SCS海域的RI样本较易发生在VWS较弱的环境背景条件下。此外,相对于non-RI,支持RI发展的有利条件还包括中低层相对湿度较大、高层环境温度较低等。RI样本通常具备的TBB特征为TC内核的对流云覆盖率较大、TBB平均值相对较小。采用K最近邻分类算法进行RI预报试验,交叉检验结果表明,该方法对RI样本有一定的识别预报能力,RI样本概括率达到74.2%,技巧评分达到0.717。 | 李勋 赵声蓉 王勇 吴俞 李玉梅 | 2016 | 气象科技2016，44，4： | 1 |
| 2 | 上海市气象局海洋气象数值预报技术研究进展显示文摘为满足上海海洋区域中心海洋气象业务的需求,近十多年来中国气象局上海台风研究所和上海海洋气象预报台承担完成了多项国家、上海市和气象部门的海洋气象数值预报技术研究方面的科研课题,在海气相互作用物理过程观测研究方面揭示了台风和海雾边界层大气湍流能量输送一些新的事实,通过合理地表达海洋飞沫对于动量和热量输送作用和改进海面拖曳系数方案等手段,有效提高了海气耦合模式对于台风强度的模拟和预报能力。研发了全球和西北太平洋风浪数值预报系统,特别是发展了包括波流相互作用等复杂物理过程的近岸高分辨率海浪和风暴潮数值预报系统,还基于观测和数值模式波浪要素研发了浅滩效应指数、波浪陡度指数、涌浪占比指数和谐摇指数等船舶风险指数产品,使海洋气象预报服务更有针对性,并取得了很好的应用效果。 | 李永平 郑运霞 杨棋 于润玲 段自强 朱智慧 | 2017 | 气象科技进展2017，7，6： | 1 |
| 3 | STUDY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION UNDER TYPHOON AND ITS APPLICATION IN STI显示文摘To improve the forecast of typhoon intensity and meet the requirements of operational services on marine meteorology in Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, a few of important scientific research projects from national, Shanghai municipal government and CMA were undertaken by Shanghai Typhoon Institute in recent 10 years. Some field experiments for typhoon were carried out. The observational researches on physical process of air-sea interaction reveal some new facts about the turbulence energy transport in the atmospheric and ocean boundary layer under typhoon. Especially there is more understanding for multi-scale response mechanism of ocean and feedback effect of each other. The simulation and prediction of typhoon intensity in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model are improved due to better expression of drag coefficient on sea surface and the sea spray effect on momentum and heat transport. Furthermore, the operational wave models were established for global and northwest Pacific respectively. In particular, the sea wave and storm surge numerical prediction systems with very high resolution including complex physical processes, such as interaction of wave and current, developed over China coastal sea. Based on the numerical model outputs some useful risk indexes for ship voyage were formed and put into use in Shanghai Marine and Meteorological Center, such as wave steepness index, ratio index of swell and synchronism oscillation index et al. The numerical marine products are widely used in daily operational work and professional services recently. | YONGPING LI YUNXIA ZHENG RUNLING YU ZIQIANG DUAN | 2018 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2018，7，4： | 0 |
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