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| 1 | Study of methods for evaluating the probability of multiple site damage occurrences显示文摘Two methods currently available for evaluating the probability of Multiple Site Damage(MSD)occurrence were studied in this paper.One of the methods is a probabilistic analysis approach based on the statistical theory and fatigue characteristics of each structural detail,and the other is an approach which defines the initial damage scenario by means of Monte-Carlo simulation,and multiple initial crack scenarios are randomly generated.A modified method based on the Monte-Carlo simulation was proposed in this paper,in which the random fluctuation of the stress was considered to give more accurate evaluation results.In the presented method,the probability of MSD occurrence in a structural element containing multiple details was calculated based on the Monte-Carlo simulation and the p-S-N curve of a single structural detail.Fatigue tests were accomplished using specimens containing 21-similar-details to obtain the fatigue life corresponding to MSD occurrence.Tests on single-detail specimens and static calibration tests were also conducted to get the basic fatigue properties of the material and the degree of stress fluctuation.The aforementioned three methods were compared and validated via the test results.The influence of the stress random fluctuation degree on the probability of MSD occurrence and influence of the distribution types on evaluating the MSD occurrence probability were discussed. | ZHANG JianPing ZHANG JianYu BAO Rui ZHENG XiaoLing | 2014 | Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)2014，57，1： | 2 |
| 2 | A novel method for importance measure analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties显示文摘For structural systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, research on quantifying the contribution of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to the failure probability of the systems is conducted. Based on the method of separating epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a variable, the core idea of the research is firstly to establish a novel deterministic transition model for auxiliary variables, distribution parameters, random variables, failure probability, then to propose the improved importance sampling(IS) to solve the transition model. Furthermore,the distribution parameters and auxiliary variables are sampled simultaneously and independently;therefore, the inefficient sampling procedure with an ‘‘inner-loop'' for epistemic uncertainty and an‘‘outer-loop'' for aleatory uncertainty in traditional methods is avoided. Since the proposed method combines the fast convergence of the proper estimates and searches failure samples in the interesting regions with high efficiency, the proposed method is more efficient than traditional methods for the variance-based failure probability sensitivity measures in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Two numerical examples and one engineering example are introduced for demonstrating the efficiency and precision of the proposed method for structural systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. | Ren Bo Lu Zhenzhou Zhou Changcong | 2014 | Chinese Journal of Aeronautics2014，27，3： | 1 |
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