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| 1 | 海平面变化与城市安全——以上海市为例显示文摘从流域-河口-海洋连续水动力系统角度,分析长江河口吴淞潮位记录(1912-2000年)中的理论海平面变化、构造沉降、三峡大坝导致的河口河槽冲刷、城市地面沉降、河口深水航道整治与促淤围垦工程导致雍水的复合效应,预测2030年长江河口地区海平面上升10-16cm。海平面上升将导致近岸海域潮位上升、潮流流速增大,设计高潮位和设计波高抬升,海塘防潮和供水安全标准降低。为此,提出上海市应对相对海平面上升的近期、中期和远期应对行动指南。 | 程和琴 陈祖军 阮仁良 徐贵泉 曾刚 朱建荣 戴志军 陈小勇 顾圣华 张先林 王寒梅 陈吉余 | 2015 | 第四纪研究2015，35，2： | 18 |
| 2 | 2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测显示文摘从全球气候变化区域响应角度,依据1912—2000年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料,构建灰色线性回归组合模型,并将其与最小二乘法和小波变换相结合,分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期变化趋势和周期变化规律。由此预测2030年上海绝对海平面相对2011年的上升值为4cm,结合已公布的构造沉降和城市地面沉降、流域水土保持和大型水利工程及人工挖沙导致的河口河槽冲刷、河口围海造地和深水航道及跨江跨海大桥导致水仇抬升等叠加效应及其变化趋势,预测2030年上海市相对海平面上升10~16cm,陆地海平面上升有7个风险分阮。 | 程和琴 王冬梅 陈吉余 | 2015 | 气候变化研究进展2015，11，4： | 13 |
| 3 | 河口冲淤对围垦的响应显示文摘为了研究椒江河口地形对毗邻海域连续多段大面积滩涂围垦(即集群围垦)的响应,利用二维潮流非均匀沙数学模型,预测椒江河口现状岸线下及规划围垦工程后的床面冲淤.结果显示:现状岸线下未来河口河道大部分区域发生冲刷,口外拦门沙有少量淤积;规划围垦工程后河口河道及口外拦门沙淤积,河口延伸段冲刷;与各围垦工程单独作用的叠加效果相比,集群围垦联合作用下的冲淤幅度更大,即存在非线性效应,应在围垦规划时予以重视;河口水动力随毗邻海域围垦面积的增大而减弱,水流挟沙能力随之下降,因而河口河道及口外拦门沙的淤积厚度随围垦面积的增大而增大. | 郭聪 孙志林 郑浩磊 潘桂娥 | 2016 | 浙江大学学报(工学版)2016，50，9： | 5 |
| 4 | 长江口冲淤交替及变化趋势显示文摘The morphological changing trend of the Yangtze Estuary,the largest estuary of Asia,has become a focus of research in recent years.Based on a long series of topographic data from 1950 to 2015,this paper studied the erosion-deposition pattern of the entire Yangtze Estuary.An alternation between erosion and deposition was found during the past 65 years,which was in correspondence to the alternation between flood and dry periods identified by multi-year average duration days of high-level water flow(defined as discharge≥60,000 m 3/s,namely,D≥60,000)from the Yangtze River Basin.A quantitative relationship was further developed between the erosional/depositional rate of the Yangtze Estuary and the interpreting variables of yearly water discharge,D≥60,000 and yearly river sediment load,with contributing rates of 1%,59%and 40%,respectively.Mechanism behind the alternate erosion and deposition pattern was analyzed by examining residual water surface slope and the corresponding capacity of sediment transport in flood and dry periods.In flood periods,a larger discharge results in steeper slope of residual water level which permits a greater capacity of sediment transport.Therefore,more bed materials can be washed to the sea,leading to erosion of the estuary.In contrast,flatter slope of residual water level occurs in dry periods,and deposition dominates the estuarine area due to the decreased capacity of sediment transport and the increased backwater effect of flood-tide.Coastal dynamics and estuarine engineering projects alter the local morphological changes,but slightly affect the total erosional/depositional rate of the whole estuarine region.Heavy sedimentation within the Yangtze Estuary after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam can be attributed to the reduced occurrence frequency of flood years due to water regulation by the dam,and largely(at least 36%-52%)sourced from the sea.Deposition is still possible to occur in the Yangtze Estuary in the future,because the multi-year average D≥60,000 is unlikely to exceed the critical value of 14 days/yr which corresponds to the future equilibrium state of the Yangtze Estuary,under the water regulation of the large cascade dams in the upper Yangtze.Nevertheless,the mean depositional rate will not surpass the peak value of the past years,since the total sediment load entering the Yangtze Estuary has presented a decreasing trend. | 朱博渊 李义天 岳遥 杨云平 梁恩航 张春财 BORTHWICK Alistair G.L. | 2020 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2020，30，1： | 4 |
| 5 | 近期长江口北槽河段河槽演变对人类活动的响应显示文摘利用多波束测深系统在2014年11月期间测量长江口北槽河段的河槽地貌形态,获取高精度的床面微地貌资料,结合北槽河槽底质资料和1979~2019年期间的海图水深数据分析近期北槽河段的河槽演变特征,探讨人类活动对北槽河槽演变的影响。结果表明:在人类活动的强烈干扰下,1979~2019年的40年期间,北槽河段(上段至口外段)以河槽侵蚀为主,净冲刷的泥沙体积达0.36×10^8m^3,平均每年冲刷0.009×10^8m^3,北槽河段水深增大可能加剧了盐水入侵;在流域大型工程尤其是三峡大坝的影响下,长江流域输送到河口的沙量持续减少,致使近期严重的河槽侵蚀发生北槽河段口外段;在深水航道治理工程的影响下,近期北槽河段(上段至下段)总体上呈现主槽侵蚀、两岸淤积和深水航道泥沙回淤严重的特征;北槽床面上存在着常见床面微地貌形态(平滑床底、沙波和冲沟)和人为强干扰下的床面形态(疏浚痕、凹坑和洼地);在北槽中段和下段发育的沙波的波长的均值分别为39.41和11.11 m,波高均值分别为0.48和0.33 m,与沙波有关的河槽糙率(Ks)的值分别是0.14和0.19,且此次观测到的小范围沙波为首次在北槽河段(长江河口最大浑浊带)观测到的沙波微地貌。 | 吴帅虎 程和琴 郑树伟 唐倩玉 | 2020 | 长江流域资源与环境2020，29，6： | 3 |
| 6 | 长江口南槽最大浑浊带枯季大小潮悬沙峰特征及其动力机制显示文摘长江口最大浑浊带是陆海交汇的核心区域,其航槽是扼海-河联运的咽喉,悬沙峰的涨落潮周期变化深刻影响航槽的稳定性。本文利用长江口南槽上、中、下段3个站点枯季小潮和大潮的流速、盐度、悬沙平均粒径和悬沙浓度的实测资料,分析最大浑浊带悬沙峰特征及其动力机制。发现:流速和滩槽交换增强导致大潮平均悬沙浓度比小潮增加了0.78—1.97倍,絮凝也导致憩流底层悬沙浓度增加8%左右,但流速和絮凝与悬沙浓度的关系均非线性。大小潮盐度梯度与底层悬沙浓度关系呈现高线性相关关系,表明盐度梯度强化或突变是泥沙再悬浮形成悬沙峰的主要动力。 | 艾威 李茂田 刘晓强 李为华 牛淑杰 同萌 | 2018 | 海洋与湖沼2018，49，4： | 2 |
| 7 | 长江口北港主槽河道悬沙输运空间结构特征分析显示文摘长江口为多级分汊型中等潮汐河口,北港是长江口二级入海汊道,被规划为长江口重要通航水道,对其悬沙输运过程和规律的研究至关重要。根据大潮期间北港主槽横断面上均匀分布的5个站点的同步水沙观测资料,采用准调和分析等方法将观测数据分解为潮平均量和多个随潮波动量,以分析北港悬沙输运的横断面空间结构特征和各动力因子的贡献机制。研究结果表明:大潮期间北港主槽横断面总输沙量主要由余流输沙、半日潮流输沙和M4潮流输沙构成,各部分输沙量空间结构差异显著。总输沙量在断面北侧大部分区域指向外海,南侧小部分区域指向上游。强径流作用下的海向余流输沙是构成北侧海向输沙的主要因子。在径流及微弯河势影响下,北侧河道断面落潮流输沙显著强于涨潮流输沙,致使北侧半日潮流输沙指向外海,其贡献机制仅次于余流输沙。南侧河道断面陆向输沙主要由半日潮流输沙和M4潮流输沙组成,其中半日潮流输沙占主要部分。北港水下地貌结构和冲淤演变趋势与断面悬沙分布特征和输运结构密切相关。 | 杨忠勇 任鹏 钱门亮 罗铃 范中亚 | 2021 | 人民长江2021，52，2： | 1 |
| 8 | Longitudinal residual circulation in the South Passage of Yangtze Estuary:Combined influences from runoff,tide and bathymetry显示文摘Classical estuary circulation theory states that in the longitudinal direction of an estuary there exists a single circulation with landward,near-bottom,and seaward,near-surface flows;however,the situation becomes complicated with the presence of a river mouth bar.Here we conducted tidal-cycle observations in the South Passage of the Yangtze Estuary during both the wet and dry seasons of 2018(July and December,respectively).The simultaneous current velocity,temperature,and salinity profile data were obtained from anchored boats and base tripods at three stations along the channel in the mouth bar area.The results reveal two distinct longitudinal residual circulation patterns:a classic circulation which is formed on the seaward slope of the mouth bar during the wet season,and a double circulation system which is composed of two circulation cells over the landward and seaward slopes of the mouth bar during the dry season.The Simpson number(Si),mixing parameter(M),and salinity data were used to quantify the mixing intensity,which shows that horizontal baroclinic pressure gradient is the dominant factor in the formation of the longitudinal residual circulation.Furthermore,the double circulation pattern during the dry season is related to the mouth bar bathymetry,which affects saltwater intrusion.The double circulations can significantly influence the spatial and temporal evolution of the stagnation point in the estuarine channel,which in turn modifies the distribution patterns of suspended sediment concentration in the maximum turbidity zone.Evidently,the changes in the mouth bar sandbar bathymetry in response to human activities and river basin hydrographic conditions indirectly affect the occurrence and scale of the double circulations. | Lifen ZHANG Zuosheng YANG Fan ZHANG Zhanhai LI Yaping WANG Shu GAO | 2021 | Science China Earth Sciences2021，64，12： | 1 |
| 9 | 末端分流河道-河口坝三维地震表征及演化——以松辽盆地古龙凹陷英79井区为例显示文摘以松辽盆地古龙凹陷为例,基于钻、测井数据以及三维地震数据,开展末端分流河道-河口坝三维地震表征,对河口坝的动力学形成机制进行分析,并结合现代赣江三角洲河口坝沉积观测结果,总结分流河道-河口坝的沉积演化模式。古龙凹陷英79井区嫩江组三段可识别出3期分流河道-河口坝。从早期到晚期,泥岩颜色由黑灰色、深灰色到灰绿色转变以及河口坝厚度逐渐减薄(10m、8.5 m和4.25 m),显示湖水由深变浅(17 m、14 m和7 m)。反旋回、漏斗状的河口坝在地震剖面上呈透镜状、高频、中弱振幅反射特征。携带细粒沉积物的水流在末端分流河道出口处,以紊流射流方式注入湖水,形成第1级河口坝。当第1级河口坝坝顶水体较浅时,第1级河口坝停止生长。水流在第1级河口坝两侧分流并水道化,形成次一级分流河道-河口坝。由于水深、分流河道的河口宽度不同,在分流河道末端发育不同级次、不同规模、展布特征差异的河口坝群。河口坝宽度与河口坝长度呈线性正相关,而河口坝长度则与其对应的分流河道口的宽度呈指数相关。 | 李磊 许璐 刘豪 谭卓 唐文 | 2016 | 石油学报2016，37，11： | 1 |
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