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| 1 | 基于山火时空特征的林区输电通道风险评估显示文摘穿过林区的供电线路所处地理环境复杂,输电通道山火灾害频发。为研究山火条件下林区输电通道风险评估问题,对四川省凉山州地区某重要负荷的两条输电通道所经过的多个地区的气象数据按时间顺序进行统计。利用森林火险气象等级计算山火发生概率,利用长空气间隙击穿理论计算山火条件下输电线路故障概率,进而建立了具有时空分布特征的山火条件下输电通道风险评估模型,并用算例验证了所提方法的有效性。还对一条输电通道故障,潮流转移至另一条输电通道后的线路运行情况进行了分析,并根据结果提出了相应的降风险措施。 | 熊小伏 曾勇 王建 李浩然 | 2018 | 电力系统保护与控制2018，46，4： | 14 |
| 2 | Wildfire Susceptibility Assessment in Southern China:A Comparison of Multiple Methods显示文摘Wildfire is a primary forest disturbance.A better understanding of wildfire susceptibility and its dominant influencing factors is crucial for regional wildfire risk management.This study performed a wildfire susceptibility assessment using multiple methods,including logistic regression,probit regression,an artificial neural network,and a random forest(RF) algorithm.Yunnan Province,China was used as a case study area.We investigated the sample ratio of ignition and nonignition data to avoid misleading results due to the overwhelming number of nonignition samples in the models.To compare model performance and the importance of variables among the models,the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic plot was used as an indicator.The results show that a cost-sensitive RF had the highest accuracy(88.47%) for all samples,and 94.23% accuracy for ignition prediction.The identified main factors that influence Yunnan wildfire occurrence were forest coverage ratio,month,season,surface roughness,10 days minimum of the 6 h maximum humidity,and 10 days maxima of the 6 h average and maximum temperatures.These seven variables made the greatest contributions to regional wildfire susceptibility.Susceptibility maps developed from the models provide information regarding the spatial variation of ignition susceptibility,which can be used in regional wildfire risk management. | Yinxue Cao Ming Wang Kai Liu | 2017 | International Journal of Disaster Risk Science2017，8，2： | 3 |
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