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| 1 | 升温对祁连山东部青海云杉径向生长的影响显示文摘在祁连山东部西营河流域不同海拔采集年轮样品,利用树木年代学方法建立高海拔(3000 m)、中海拔(2750 m)、低海拔(2500 m)青海云杉标准化年表,将年轮宽度指数与不同时段气温和降水分别进行相关分析,研究祁连山东部不同海拔青海云杉径向生长对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:水热是祁连山东部青海云杉径向生长的主要限制因子,不同海拔树木的生长限制因子基本一致。在显著升温之前(1961—1986年),低、中、高海拔3个样点的青海云杉径向生长均与上一年7—8月和当年8月平均最高温呈显著负相关,与当年6月相对湿度呈显著正相关。显著升温之后(1986—2014年),高、中、低海拔树木生长与气温仍呈显著负相关,而与当年2月的相对湿度由升温前的不显著负相关转为显著正相关,与6月降水和相对湿度由升温前的显著正相关转为不显著的负相关。升温导致祁连山东部各海拔青海云杉树轮生长变慢,其中高海拔所受影响最大。气候变暖导致的干旱胁迫可能是青海云杉径向生长发生变化的主要原因。 | 刘兰娅 勾晓华 张芬 尹定财 王学佳 夏敬清 李芊 杜苗苗 | 2021 | 应用生态学报2021，32，10： | 11 |
| 2 | 过去2000年中国气候重建与极端事件研究最新进展(英文)显示文摘China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives(e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals) that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1–200, AD 551–760, AD 951–1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201–350, AD 441–530, AD 781–950, and AD 1321–1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301–400, AD 751–800, AD 1051–1150, AD 1501–1550, and AD 1601–1650, while extreme flood events were frequent in the periods AD 101–150, AD 251–300, AD 951–1000, AD 1701–1750, AD 1801–1850, and AD 1901–1950. Between AD 1551–1600, extreme droughts and flood events occurred frequently. In arid northwest China, climate was characterized by dry conditions in AD 1000–1350, wet conditions in AD 1500–1850, and has tended to be wet over recent decades. On the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation have occurred over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multidecadal-scale severe drought events. Of these, the most severe were in the 1480 s and 1710 s. In southwest China, extreme droughts as severe as those seen in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 are known to have occurred during historical times. | 葛全胜 郑景云 郝志新 刘洋 李明启 | 2016 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2016，26，7： | 8 |
| 3 | 中国利用树轮资料重建干湿变化研究进展显示文摘树木年轮资料定年准确、分辨率高、连续性强,已成为研究过去全球变化的重要信息来源之一。中国树轮与干湿变化研究,样点分布广泛,研究树种较多,重建尺度较长。基于树轮宽度、密度和同位素等各种代用指标,在分析树木径向生长对干湿变化响应、重建历史时期干湿变化等方面取得很大进展。一般来说,在干旱半干旱区的低海拔区域,水分条件,尤其是春季、秋季和年湿润状况,是树木径向生长的重要影响因素。森林上限、相对冷湿区域以及亚热带气候区,树木生长与降水的相关性偏弱。在时间尺度上,基于树轮重建的长于1000年甚至超过2000年的干湿变化序列已有多条,主要分布在青藏高原地区。目前最长年表已达4500年,最长降水序列为3500年。本文通过对部分树轮成果的简要概括,以期为树轮采样和干湿变化重建提供借鉴与帮助。 | 王亚军 李明启 | 2016 | 地理科学进展2016，35，11： | 8 |
| 4 | 不同生境和去趋势方法下的祁连圆柏径向生长对气候的响应显示文摘利用青海不同生境祁连圆柏树木年轮样本,采用3种不同去趋势方法建立树轮年表,结合青海30个气象站的气象资料,分析不同生境和去趋势方法下祁连圆柏径向生长对气候的响应差异。结果表明,祁连山区,生长季前期的平均气温是祁连圆柏树木径向生长的主要限制性因子,NEP树轮标准化宽度年表与生长季前期冬季平均气温相关最好;在柴达木盆地,生长季降水量是该地区树木径向生长的限制性因子,SPL树轮年表对生长季降水量相关较好;在青南高原,祁连圆柏径向生长对春季温度响应最为敏感,而SPL年表与春季温度呈现明显的负相关关系,相关系数达-0.606;而在青海东部地区,祁连圆柏树木径向生长对气候的响应总体不显著。位于青海西部和北部的柴达木盆地和祁连山区祁连圆柏径向生长受西风气候的影响显著,尤其是柴达木盆地,其气候受西风主导;而青南高原受西南季风影响更为显著,该地区祁连圆柏径向生长同时受西南季风气候和海拔高度两方面影响;在青海东部,祁连圆柏径向生长受东亚季风影响更为显著。 | 张瑞波 袁玉江 魏文寿 邵雪梅 喻树龙 陈峰 张同文 尚华明 范子昂 | 2013 | 生态学报2013，33，24： | 7 |
| 5 | Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis显示文摘Runoff is a major component of the water cycle,and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions.This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model(DTVGM)into the Community Land Model(CLM 3.5),replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2010.Then,future runoff(2010–2100)was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP)emission scenarios.After that,the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed,and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)analysis method.Finally,the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated.The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010–2100,whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario,with a slow increase after the 2050 s.Additionally,the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale,indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods.The longest dry period was approximately 15 years(2040–2055)for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years(2045–2070)for the RCP 4.5 scenario.However,the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045.Under these scenarios,the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe.Therefore,adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources. | NING Like XIA Jun ZHAN Chesheng ZHANG Yongyong | 2016 | Journal of Arid Land2016，8，4： | 4 |
| 6 | 基于EEMD和EOF的鄱阳湖流域近550 a来旱涝时空变化显示文摘利用鄱阳湖流域及周边地区5个站点1467~2016年旱涝灾害史料,结合《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》数据和现代器测降水资料,基于相关系数权重法集成重建了鄱阳湖流域近550 a旱涝序列。采用集合经验模态分解和经验正交函数等手段分析了鄱阳湖流域近550 a来的旱涝时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖流域旱涝序列的各IMF分量变化规律符合自然信号的非线性变化的特征,主要的高频变化周期有2~3 a、7~8 a;中低频变化周期有22 a、36 a;低频变化周期有110 a、220 a等。(2)旱涝序列空间场的EOF分解表明,前4个模态的累积方差贡献率为93.68%,收敛效果明显。第一模态为区域整体变化一致;第二、三模态分别代表南北方向和东西方向上旱涝变化不一致;第四模态代表赣南地区的极端降水类型。(3)主要空间模态的时间系数功率谱分析结果表明,旱涝空间场模态的变化周期与旱涝序列EEMD分解的结果基本一致。 | 万智巍 贾玉连 洪祎君 李姮莹 蒋梅鑫 | 2018 | 长江流域资源与环境2018，27，4： | 4 |
| 7 | 基于完备集合经验模态分解的赣江径流多尺度变化特征显示文摘利用完备集合经验模态分解(CEEMD)方法,结合趋势分析、突变检验和功率谱分析对径流序列进行多尺度变化特征分析表明,近66年来赣江径流变化上升速率为6.5×10~8m^3/10 a,MK趋势检验的Z统计量为0.653,上升趋势不显著;1989年~1990年前后发生了突变;赣江径流变化序列具有显著的非线性、非稳定性特征,径流的准3 a周期可能与长江流域降水的准3 a周期相关;准6 a、准14 a和准26 a周期,则可能与厄尔尼诺和太阳活动相关。 | 万智巍 贾玉连 洪祎君 蒋梅鑫 | 2018 | 水力发电2018，44，8： | 3 |
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