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| 1 | Application of CEDA and ASPIC computer packages to the hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea显示文摘Surplus-production models are widely used in fish stock assessment and fisheries management due to their simplicity and lower data demands than age-structured models such as Virtual Population Analysis. The CEDA (catch-effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a surplus-production model incorporating covariates) computer packages are data-fitting or parameter estimation tools that have been developed to analyze catch-and-effort data using non-equilibrium surplus production models. We applied CEDA and ASPIC to the hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea. Both packages produced robust results and yielded similar estimates. In CEDA, the Schaefer surplus production model with log-normal error assumption produced results close to those of ASPIC. CEDA is sensitive to the choice of initial proportion, while ASPIC is not. However, CEDA produced higher R 2 values than ASPIC. | 王玉 刘群 | 2013 | Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology2013，31，1： | 12 |
| 2 | 运用生物量动态模型评估印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源显示文摘生物量动态模型因所需数据量少、结构较为简单,是常用的渔业资源评估模型。多年来,这类模型一直被用于评估大西洋和印度洋的金枪鱼鱼类资源。然而,这些评估均未考虑模型的重要结构即剩余产量模式和模型拟合标准对资源评估结果的影响。运用典型的非平衡生物量动态模型-ASPIC模型,以渔获量和标准化CPUE为主要数据,评估印度洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)资源,重点比较FOX与LOGSITIC两种剩余产量模式、最小残差平方和(SSE)与最小残差绝对值和(LAV)对资源评估的影响。结果显示,剩余产量模式和拟合标准的选用对渔业管理生物学参考点估计(包括MSY、FMSY、BMSY)有明显影响,且总体而言,前者的影响更大;但在资源开发状态的定性判断上(即过度捕捞与否),上述选用未有明显影响。研究表明,在生物量动态产量模型运用中,应根据鱼种和渔业特点,考虑剩余产量模式和模型拟合标准这两个不确定性因素。 | 马璐璐 朱江峰 耿喆 戴小杰 | 2018 | 上海海洋大学学报2018，27，2： | 8 |
| 3 | 基于CEDA和ASPIC软件的南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼渔业资源评估研究显示文摘剩余产量模型是最简单和应用最广泛的渔业资源评估模型之一。CEDA(catch-effort data analysis)和ASPIC(a surplus-production model incorporating covariates)是使用非平衡剩余产量模型对渔业产量和捕捞努力量数据进行分析的计算机软件。根据中国台湾延绳钓渔业的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)数据,利用CDEA和ASPIC软件对南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)渔业进行研究。结果显示,CEDA中使用对数正态误差假设的Fox模型产生了最大的R2值以及最接近ASPIC分析结果的种群参数值,但是CEDA得到的R2值低于ASPIC。CEDA对不同初始B1/K值的反应比ASPIC敏感。ASPIC中Logistic产量模型对不同初始B1/K值的反应比Fox模型更加灵敏。CEDA和ASPIC得出的最大可持续产量基本一致。 | 许友伟 张魁 陈作志 | 2015 | 海洋湖沼通报2015，，3： | 8 |
| 4 | 广东海洋渔业资源可捕量评估显示文摘为探明广东省海洋渔业资源现状及其对实现渔业可持续发展的重要意义,基于广东省1961—2018年海洋渔业统计产量数据,利用一种包含协变量的剩余产量模型(a surplus-production model incorporating covariates,ASPIC)和Catch-MSY模型对广东海洋渔业资源总可捕量、5个重要经济类群的最大可持续产量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)以及可捕量进行了评估。结果显示,ASPIC与Catch-MSY模型的评估结果相近,广东海洋渔业资源MSY约为164×10^(4) t,1996—2006年处于过度捕捞状态,当前产量低于MSY。Schaefer与Fox模型评估的MSY相差不大,且B/B MSY与F/F_(MSY)的历史变化趋势较为一致,但是评估的渔业现状差异较大,Schaefer模型评估结果表明当前渔业状态较差(B/B MSY<1且F/F_(MSY)>1),而Fox模型表明当前渔业状态良好(B/B MSY>1且F/F_(MSY)<1)。综合两个模型结果显示,带鱼类MSY为14.62×10^(4)~15.08×10^(4) t,日本鲭(Scomber japonicus)MSY为3.82×10^(4)~6.78×10^(4) t,鲳类MSY为5.77×10^(4)~6.21×10^(4) t,鲷类MSY为4.16×10^(4)~4.54×10^(4) t,蓝圆鲹(Decapterus maruadsi)MSY为17.68×10^(4)~19.84×10^(4) t。5个经济类群中日本鲭和蓝圆鲹处于过度捕捞后的衰退状态,而带鱼类、鲳类和鲷类在近年来遭受过度捕捞。研究结果可为广东海洋渔业限额捕捞提供理论依据。 | 史登福 许友伟 孙铭帅 黄梓荣 陈作志 张魁 | 2021 | 海洋渔业2021，43，5： | 7 |
| 5 | Maximum sustainable yield of Greater lizardfish Saurida tumbil fishery in Pakistan using the CEDA and ASPIC packages显示文摘The catch and effort data analysis(CEDA) and ASPIC(a stock assessment production model incorporating covariates) computer software packages were used to estimate the maximum sustainable yield(MSY) from the catch and effort data of Greater lizardfish Saurida tumbil fishery of Pakistan from 1986 to 2009. In CEDA three surplus production models of Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson were used. Here initial proportion(IP) of 0.5 was used because the starting catch was roughly 50% of the maximum catch. With IP = 0.5, the estimated MSY from Fox model were 20.59 mt and 38.16 mt for normal and log-normal error assumptions, while the MSY from Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson were 60.40, 60.40 and 60.40 mt, for normal, log-normal and gamma error assumptions respectively. The MSY values from Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models of three error assumptions were the same. The R2 values from those three models were above 0.6. When IP = 0.5, the MSY values estimated from ASPIC from Fox were 132 mt, and from logistic model were 69.4 mt, with R2 value above 0.8. Therefore we suggest the MSY of S. tumbil fishery from Pakistan to be 60–70 mt, which is higher than the latest catch, thus we would recommend that the fishing efforts for this fishery may be kept at the current level. | KALHORO Muhsan Ali LIU Qun MEMON Khadim Hussain WARYANI Baradi SOOMRO Shamsher Hyder | 2015 | Acta Oceanologica Sinica2015，34，2： | 2 |
| 6 | Evaluation of the fishery status for King Soldier Bream Argyrops spinifer in Pakistan using the software CEDA and ASPIC显示文摘Catch and effort data were analyzed to estimate the maximum sustainable yield(MSY) of King Soldier Bream, Argyrops spinifer(Forssk?l, 1775, Family: Sparidae), and to evaluate the present status of the fish stocks exploited in Pakistani waters. The catch and effort data for the 25-years period 1985–2009 were analyzed using two computer software packages, CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a surplus production model incorporating covariates). The maximum catch of 3 458 t was observed in 1988 and the minimum catch of 1 324 t in 2005, while the average annual catch of A. spinifer over the 25 years was 2 500 t. The surplus production models of Fox, Schaefer, and Pella Tomlinson under three error assumptions of normal, log-normal and gamma are in the CEDA package and the two surplus models of Fox and logistic are in the ASPIC package. In CEDA, the MSY was estimated by applying the initial proportion(IP) of 0.8, because the starting catch was approximately 80% of the maximum catch. Except for gamma, because gamma showed maximization failures, the estimated results of MSY using CEDA with the Fox surplus production model and two error assumptions, were 1 692.08 t(R 2 =0.572) and 1 694.09 t( R 2 =0.606), respectively, and from the Schaefer and the Pella Tomlinson models with two error assumptions were 2 390.95 t( R 2 =0.563), and 2 380.06 t( R 2 =0.605), respectively. The MSY estimated by the Fox model was conservatively compared to the Schaefer and Pella Tomlinson models. The MSY values from Schaefer and Pella Tomlinson models were the same. The computed values of MSY using the ASPIC computer software program with the two surplus production models of Fox and logistic were 1 498 t(R 2 =0.917), and 2 488 t( R 2 =0.897) respectively. The estimated values of MSY using CEDA were about 1 700–2 400 t and the values from ASPIC were 1 500–2 500 t. The estimates output by the CEDA and the ASPIC packages indicate that the stock is overfished, and needs some effective management to reduce the fishing effort of the species in Pakistani waters. | Aamir Mahmood MEMON 刘群 Khadim Hussain MEMON Wazir Ali BALOCH Asfandyar MEMON Abdul BASET | 2015 | Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology2015，33，4： | 2 |
| 7 | Performance Comparison Between Logistic and Generalized Surplus-Production Models Applied to the Sillago sihama Fishery in Pakistan显示文摘The catch and effort data of Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistani waters were used to investigate the performance of two closely related stock assessment models: logistic and generalized surplus-production models. Compared with the generalized production model, the logistic model produced more reasonable estimates for parameters such as maximum sustainable yield. The Akaike's Information Criterion values estimated at 4.265 and -51.152 respectively by the logistic and generalized models. Simulation analyses of the S. sihama fishery showed that the estimated and observed abundance indices for the logistic model were closer than those for the generalized production model. Standardized residuals were distributed closer for logistic model, but exhibited a slightly increasing trend for the generalized model. Statistical outliers were seen in 1989 and 1993 for the logistic model, and in 1981 and 1999 for the generalized model. Simulated results revealed that the logistic estimates were close to the true value for low CVs (coefficients of variation) but widely dispersed for high CVs. In contrast, the generalized model estimates were loose for all CV levels. The estimated production model curve parameter was not reasonable at all the tested levels of white noise. With the increase in white noise R2 for the catch per unit effort decreased. Therefore, we conclude that the logistic model performs more reasonably than the generalized production model. | Sher Khan Panhwar Shabir Ali Amir Muhsan Ali Kalhoro1 LIU Qun | 2012 | Journal of Ocean University of China2012，11，3： | 1 |
| 8 | 基于文献计量的渔业资源可持续利用评价研究进展显示文摘渔业资源可持续利用是渔业可持续发展的关键问题,为保证人类对渔业资源最大限度地持续利用,必须全面评价渔业资源的发展潜力。本文基于文献计量分析方法,对国际和国内渔业资源可持续利用评价的研究进行了系统地整理与分析,并结合关键词网络知识图谱、突变检测等探究渔业资源可持续利用评价的研究热点及未来发展趋势。结果表明:渔业资源可持续利用评价研究发文量整体上随年份的增加呈现波动上升趋势,其中美国、中国和加拿大在该领域研究较多;研究热点主要集中在渔业资源可持续利用评价方法与策略、气候变化对渔业资源的影响、基于生态系统管理的渔业资源可持续利用评价和渔业资源可持续利用评价管理制度等方面。本文针对渔业资源可持续利用研究中存在的问题,提出评价方法的改进与统一及管理制度的监管与完善等未来重点研究方向。 | 鲁泉 王超 方舟 张柏豪 李楠 陈新军 | 2022 | 大连海洋大学学报2022，37，5： | 1 |
| 9 | Application of the Moving Averaging Technique in Surplus Production Models显示文摘Surplus production models are the simplest analytical methods effective for fish stock assessment and fisheries management. In this paper, eight surplus production estimators(three estimation procedures) were tested on Schaefer and Fox type simulated data in three simulated fisheries(declining, well-managed, and restoring fisheries) at two white noise levels. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to verify the utility of moving averaging(MA), which was an important technique for reducing the effect of noise in data in these models. The relative estimation error(REE) of maximum sustainable yield(MSY) was used as an indicator for the analysis, and one-way ANOVA was applied to test the significance of the REE calculated at four levels of MA. Simulation results suggested that increasing the value of MA could significantly improve the performance of the surplus production model(low REE) in all cases when the white noise level was low(coefficient of variation(CV) = 0.02). However, when the white noise level increased(CV= 0.25), adding the value of MA could still significantly enhance the performance of most models. Our results indicated that the best model performance occurred frequently when MA was equal to 3; however, some exceptions were observed when MA was higher. | WANG Yu LIU Qun | 2014 | Journal of Ocean University of China2014，13，4： | 0 |
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