|
|
|
题名
|
作者
|
年代
|
出处
|
被引量
|
| 1 | 基于蒙特卡罗法的土石坝洪水漫顶风险率计算及其敏感性分析显示文摘为了减少土石坝因洪水漫顶造成溃坝所带来的损失,详细介绍了计算土石坝洪水漫顶风险率的蒙特卡罗法模型,分析了影响土石坝洪水漫顶的主要因素为洪水、风浪、水库运行调度方式和水库特性。针对这些因素进行洪水漫顶风险率的敏感性分析,并以南方某土石坝为例进行了实例研究。结果表明:洪峰流量均值和变差系数以及最大风速的均值对土石坝洪水漫顶风险率的影响较大,洪峰流量的偏态系数和风速的均方差的影响较小;水库自身特性及洪水到来前的水库初始水位的影响也比较大。该实例计算得到的洪水漫顶风险率经与相关工程实例分析计算成果比较,表明采用蒙特卡罗法计算洪水漫顶风险率是可信的。 | 吕弯弯 顾圣平 何蕾 刘欣欣 赵一梦 | 2015 | 长江科学院院报2015，32，5： | 10 |
| 2 | 基于Rackwitz-Fiessler方法的土石坝漫顶风险数学模型显示文摘为更加准确预估土石坝漫顶风险率,在全面考虑洪峰流量、风浪壅高和波浪爬高各不确定性因素的基础上,提出了基于Rackwitz-Fiessler方法的漫顶风险模型算法.通过对土石坝漫顶风险基本定义的转化,引入调洪系数ρ和基于水位流量过程关系提出基于流量关系式的漫顶风险数学模型;在已知不确定性因素的函数分布基础上,采用Rackwitz-Fiessler方法迭代求解土石坝漫顶风险率.实例结果分析表明,该漫顶风险计算模型能较好地反映土石坝漫顶特性,模型方程相比单一考虑洪峰流量不确定性或风浪壅高及波浪爬高不确定性的方法更贴近实际且验证性好. | 孙开畅 李权 尹志伟 齐中新 | 2017 | 武汉大学学报(工学版)2017，50，3： | 4 |
| 3 | Risk calculation method for complex engineering system显示文摘This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method (SMEM), which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems. | Li-ping WANG Yan-ke ZHANG Chang-ming JI Ji-qing LI | 2011 | Water Science and Engineering2011，4，3： | 2 |
| 4 | Life Loss Estimation Based on Dam-Break Flood Uncertainties and Lack of Information in Mountainous Regions of Western China显示文摘Compared with urban floods, dam-break floods are associated with greater uncertainties, including variable dam-break modes and hydrological characteristics, so conventional flood estimation methods cannot be directly applied in the estimation of dam-break flood loss. In particular, there is scant information regarding the conditions of affected area and hydrological characteristics in southwest China. In this paper, we introduce an integrated model for estimating flood loss that is adapted to the mountainous regions of southwestern China in light of the relative lack of available information. This model has three major components: a basic information model, a dam-routed flood propagation simulation model, and a loss estimation model. We established the basic information model despite the relative lack of available information using 3S technology [remote sensing(RS); geographical information system(GIS); global positioning system(GPS)], data mining technology, and statistical analysis techniques. Our dam-routed flood propagation simulation model consists of major hydrologic processes and their governing equations for flow propagation, which we solve using finite-difference schemes. In this model, the flood propagation area is divided into grids and each grid is determined by the characteristic parameters obtained from the propagationsimulation. We present a case study of the Lianghekou hydropower station in Sichuan Province, China to illustrate the practical application of this integrated model for life loss estimation. | Chao Wang Sherong Zhang Yaosheng Tan Fei Pan Lei Yan | 2017 | Transactions of Tianjin University2017，23，4： | 1 |
| 5 | 王家厂水库大坝基于风险分析的加固时机研究显示文摘针对运行50余年的王家厂水库大坝存在的众多病险,开展风险分析。基于水文复核,量化大坝的漫顶风险;通过参数反演,采用强度折减有限元法分析土石坝变形破坏风险。结果表明:王家厂水库漫顶风险概率小,可通过现有溢洪道控制泄量降低风险;坝体变形呈加剧趋势,局部高风险变形已危及迎水面边坡稳定。基于构建的预测模型,坝体10年后的变形趋势尚在规范容许范围,但为安全起见,大坝加固宜早实施,加固范围包括修复支护溢洪道进口明渠边坡,更换启闭设施,防护流道建筑物,确保安全泄洪;对坝体采取灌注黏土水泥类材料,提高密实度,控制变形。研究为王家厂水库全面加固提供依据。 | 熊思星 张贵金 雷勇 杨博石 李毅 | 2021 | 湖南水利水电2021，，2： | 0 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员