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| 1 | 安徽省洪涝致灾危险性时空格局预估显示文摘预估未来极端天气事件致灾危险性对于评估气候变化对人类经济和社会的潜在风险具有极其重要的意义。本研究采用PRECIS模式模拟的气候情景数据,选取年均暴雨日数、年均最大三日降水量、高程、坡度和距河湖距离五个指标,对SRES B2情景下未来安徽省县域尺度洪涝致灾危险性时空格局进行预估。结果表明:相对于现阶段(1981-2010),未来安徽省年均暴雨日数和最大三日降水量总体上呈现北部减少、南部增加的趋势;各时段安徽省洪灾危险性等级由北向南大致呈逐渐升高的趋势;未来安徽省洪灾危险性格局变化主要发生在近期(2011-2040)和中期(2041-2070);到中期时段,安徽省洪灾危险性处于5级的县域个数和面积百分比分别为16个和17.87%,是现阶段的2倍和2.24倍。研究结果可为气候变化背景下该地区洪涝灾害风险管理提供科学依据。 | 贺山峰 葛全胜 吴绍洪 戴尔阜 吴文祥 | 2012 | 中国人口·资源与环境2012，22，11： | 9 |
| 2 | Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin显示文摘Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively. | He Shanfeng Ge Quansheng Wu Shaohong Dai Erfu Shi Chunjian Li Mingqi | 2010 | Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment2010，8，3： | 1 |
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