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| 1 | CMIP6全球气候模式对中国极端降水模拟能力的评估及其与CMIP5的比较显示文摘对CMIP6全球气候模式在中国地区极端降水的模拟能力进行了综合评估。基于CN05.1观测数据集和32个CMIP6全球气候模式的降水数据,采用8个常用极端降水指数对极端降水进行了定量描述。研究结果表明,在极端降水的气候平均态方面,CMIP6多模式集合对1961—2005年中国地区区域平均的8个极端降水指数模拟的平均相对误差为29.94%,相较CMIP5降低了2.95个百分点。极端降水的气候变率方面,CMIP6多模式集合对区域平均的8个极端降水指数模拟的平均相对误差为10.10%,相较CMIP5降低5.45个百分点。此外,利用TS评分进行模式间比较,CMIP6的平均分(0.78)高于CMIP5(0.75),且模拟能力排名前五的模式中CMIP6占4个。对比14个同源模式的TS评分可以发现,CMIP6(0.91)相对于CMIP5(0.68)的模拟能力显著提高。进一步研究发现,CMIP6相对于CMIP5对不同区域极端降水模拟能力的改进有所区别:CMIP6对干旱区平均的气候态和变率方面改进明显,而对于湿润区的改进主要表现在对极端降水空间相关模拟能力的提高。综上,在中国地区,CMIP6相较于CMIP5对极端降水的模拟能力总体上有提升。 | 王予 李惠心 王会军 孙博 陈活泼 | 2021 | 气象学报2021，79，3： | 31 |
| 2 | 全球变暖背景下不同空间尺度降水谱的变化显示文摘利用477个地面观测站上的日降水数据分析了中国整个降水强度谱在1961~2008年的长期变化特征.结果发现,毛毛雨整体呈现出空间一致的减少趋势,但不同区域的减少幅度存在明显差异.有观测记录的可测降水则表现出显著地季节性和区域性特征.秋季,可测降水部分在98°E以东的我国东部地区普遍减少,而夏季和冬季,在我国东部的南方地区,小雨减少而大雨呈现增加的趋势.在我国西部地区,可测降水在4个不同季节都是有所增加的.合成分析的结果显示全球尺度上气温和降水之间存在着准线性关系.不同强度的降水对全球性增暖的响应有所不同,表现为降水谱由小雨向强度较大的降水方向发生偏移.与海洋上的降水相比,陆地上的降水由于受到水汽条件的约束,变化幅度要相对偏小.另外,与全球尺度上的降水相比,区域降水随全球性增暖的变化表现出更大的不确定性,这很可能是由于局地复杂的地形和下垫面覆盖以及人类活动影响等因素所造成的. | 吴福婷 符淙斌 | 2013 | 科学通报2013，58，8： | 21 |
| 3 | 1982~1999年中国地区叶面积指数变化及其与气候变化的关系显示文摘利用1982~1999年AVHRR Pathfinder卫星遥感观测的植被叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)资料和中国730个气象台站的温度、降水观测资料,研究了中国不同地区(东北地区、华北地区、长江流域、华南地区和西南地区)LAI的季节、生长季和年变化,及其与气候变化(温度、降水)的关系。结果表明,在中国大部分地区,年平均LAI和生长季平均LAI均是增加的。由于区域和季节气候的差异,LAI变化趋势具有明显的空间和季节非均一性。从区域平均的角度来看,不同地区年和生长季平均LAI都有增加趋势,并且在华南地区增加最快。因而,在全球变化背景下,华南地区可能是潜在的碳汇。在季节尺度上,各地区区域平均LAI基本上都是增加的,并且都在春季增加最快。温度变化是LAI变化的主要原因。但是人类活动如农业活动、城市化等对华北平原、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲等地区LAI变化的作用不容忽视。 | 彭飞 孙国栋 | 2017 | 气候与环境研究2017，22，2： | 14 |
| 4 | 巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区降水量的时空变化特征显示文摘分析了巴丹吉林沙漠周边17个常规气象测站1951—2005年的逐月降水量及沙尘暴频次和东亚夏季风指数。(1)沙漠周边地区降水量的空间分布明显受地形影响:紧靠沙漠的区域地势低、干旱,各季降水量都小;沙漠外围较远处(特别是受祁连山影响的西南边)地势高、湿润,各季降水量都大;地形增高会使降水量增多1个量级以上,但对其季节配额无明显影响。夏季降水量配额最大,平均高达61.6%。(2)依据各站降水量年际变化间的相关系数及测站间的地域关系和地貌相似程度,可将该区域划为4个分区:一为地势较低、紧挨沙漠、极为干旱的沙漠西北缘区,二为气候较湿、受祁连山影响的沙漠西南缘区(或称祁连山影响区),三为位于巴丹吉林沙漠和腾格里沙漠之间的民勤区,四为远离沙漠、但与其周边地区地貌相似的沙漠东侧区。(3)1951—2005年的各个年代,4个分区各季降水量由大到小的顺序均为:祁连山影响区、沙漠东侧区、民勤区和沙漠西北缘区,与其平均海拔由高到低的顺序一致;就各季降水量及其配额的年代际演变位相而言,祁连山影响区可以代表整个区域。(4)1971—2005年各分区年降水量呈增大趋势,春季降水量增加尤为显著(增幅约为0.41mm·a-1),夏季降水量有减小趋势;随海拔增高,春季及年降水量增幅加大,夏季降水量减幅减小;祁连山影响区对全区年降水量增大的贡献最大。(5)各季及年降水量与东亚夏季风的强弱间均呈复相关;其中冬、夏季及年降水量与夏季风间的负相关随海拔升高而加大,说明夏季风对沙漠以南高海拔处的降水影响更为显著。(6)各季沙尘暴与降水量间以负相关为主,各分区冬、春季降水量偏多时,其冬、春季及夏季沙尘暴的发生频次一般偏少。 | 李万元 吕世华 董治宝 范广州 陈雷华 | 2015 | 中国沙漠2015，35，1： | 14 |
| 5 | 我国夏季暴雨气候学的研究进展与科学问题显示文摘我国夏季暴雨频发并导致洪涝灾害,严重影响着社会和经济的发展。基于对我国夏季降水和暴雨天气学的大量研究,从气候学的角度综述了我国夏季暴雨的研究进展,特别是关于我国暴雨的年际和年代际变化及趋势、与暴雨发生相关联的大尺度环流特征及年际和年代际变化成因以及全球气候变暖背景下今后我国夏季暴雨的演变趋势等方面的主要研究进展。此外,还指出了我国夏季暴雨气候学亟待进一步研究的若干科学问题。 | 陈栋 黄荣辉 陈际龙 | 2015 | 气候与环境研究2015，20，4： | 13 |
| 6 | 1951~2009年东亚地区日降水趋势特征分析显示文摘研究大陆或次大陆尺度日降水长期趋势变化规律,对于检测、理解区域气候和陆地水循环对全球气候变暖的响应特征十分重要。利用美国国家气候资料中心(NCDC)和中国基准气候站、基本气象站网降水观测资料,在对该站点资料进行基本质量控制基础上,选取东亚地区619个站1951~2009年日降水数据,按照百分位阈值对降水进行分级,共分为弱、中、强、极强4个级别,用经纬度网格面积加权平均方法构建区域平均的时间序列,分析了各类降水事件长期变化趋势的时空特征。结果表明:东亚地区近59年平均总降水量表现出不显著下降趋势,降水日数没有出现趋势性变化,平均日降水强度略有减小;区域平均的年降水量、降水日数和日降水强度在中国北方大部、蒙古东部、俄罗斯远东地区南部和日本列岛多呈减少趋势,而在俄罗斯中西伯利亚南部、朝鲜半岛南部和中国长江中下游流域一般表现为增加。从季节上看,近59年东亚区域平均的冬、春季降水量、降水日数和日降水强度均呈增加趋势,而夏、秋季一般呈减少趋势,仅夏季日降水强度略有增加。降水的年内分配出现均匀化趋势。从不同级别降水事件看,近59年来东亚区域平均的各级别降水量均为下降趋势,中降水、强降水和极强降水日数也呈现下降趋势,弱降水日数表现出较明显增加;仅有全区秋季强降水量、日数减少趋势和冬季中降水量、日数增加趋势通过了显著性水平检验。分析还发现,近30年(1980~2009年)东亚地区日降水趋势变化出现了新的特征,主要表现为大部分地区降水日数呈现增加,日降水强度减少,45°N以南多数台站降水量也增加,全区降水有向非极端化方向发展趋势。 | 战云健 任国玉 任玉玉 李娇 | 2013 | 气候与环境研究2013，18，6： | 11 |
| 7 | 洞庭湖流域降雨和降雨极值时空分布及风险变化研究显示文摘洞庭湖流域是我国洪涝灾害最严重的地区之一,对当地农业生产、经济建设和生态环境造成了巨大的影响.研究降雨极值的规律和风险,对当地防洪抗灾具有重要指导意义.本文结合MK检验、概率模型和移动窗口法,基于降雨量(R)、平均降雨强度(Ri)、暴雨天数(R50)和年最大日降雨量(Rx1)为指标,研究了1960—2013年期间洞庭湖流域降雨变化规律及极值的风险特征.结果显示,洞庭湖流域平均年降雨量以-5.6 mm/decade的速率下降,且其中夏季和冬季降雨量上升,春季和秋季下降.然而,Ri、R50、Rx1均呈现总体上升的趋势(P>0.05).概率(风险)分析结果表明,Ri、R50和Rx1的五年一遇值(Ri5、R505和Rx15)均呈现东北高西南低的规律,说明流域东北部洪水风险较高,另外,Ri5、R505和Rx15在总体上呈现显著的上升趋势(P<0.05).这些结果表明,即使流域内降雨量无显著变化(P>0.05),但降雨有集中的趋势(Ri上升),极端降雨事件逐渐增强(R50、Rx1上升),洪灾风险显著上升(P<0.05). | 张晓艳 刘梅先 | 2016 | 湖南师范大学自然科学学报2016，39，2： | 11 |
| 8 | Changes of Frequency of Summer Precipitation Extremes over the Yangtze River in Association with Large-scale Oceanic-atmospheric Conditions显示文摘Changes of the frequency of precipitation extremes (the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile of a daily climatology,referred to as R90N) in summer (June-August) over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are analyzed based on daily observations during 1961-2007.The first singular value decomposition (SVD) mode of R90N is linked to an ENSO-like mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the previous winter.Responses of different grades of precipitation events to the climatic mode are compared.It is notable that the frequency of summer precipitation extremes is significantly related with the SSTA in the Pacific,while those of light and moderate precipitation are not.It is suggested that the previously well-recognized impact of ENSO on summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is essentially due to a response in summer precipitation extremes in the region,in association with the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern.A negative relationship is found between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and precipitation extremes over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In contrast,light rainfall processes are independent from the SST and EASM variations. | 王毅 严中伟 | 2011 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2011，28，5： | 11 |
| 9 | Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions显示文摘The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors. | WU FuTing FU CongBin | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，12： | 10 |
| 10 | 1901–2013年中亚季节降水时空变化特征及其与ENSO的关系(英文)显示文摘The vulnerable ecosystem of the arid and semiarid region in Central Asia is sensitive to precipitation variations. Long-term changes of the seasonal precipitation can reveal the evolution rules of the precipitation climate. Therefore, in this study, the changes of the seasonal precipitation over Central Asia have been analyzed during the last century(1901–2013) based on the latest global monthly precipitation dataset Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis Version 7, as well as their relations with El Ni?oSouthern Oscillation(ENSO). Results show that the precipitation in Central Asia is mainly concentrated in spring and summer seasons, especially in spring. For the whole study period, increasing trends were found in spring and winter, while decreasing trends were detected in summer and fall. Inter-annual signals with 3–7 years multi-periods were derived to explain the dominant components for seasonal precipitation variability. In terms of the dominant spatial pattern, Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) results show that the spatial distribution of EOF-1 mode in summer is different from those of the other seasons during 1901–2013. Moreover, significant ENSO-associated changes in precipitation are evident during the fall, winter, spring, and absent during summer. The lagged associations between ENSO and seasonal precipitation are also obtained in Central Asia. The ENSO-based composite analyses show that these water vapor fluxes of spring, fall and winter precipitation are mainly generated in Indian and North Atlantic Oceans during El Ni?o. The enhanced westerlies strengthen the western water vapor path for Central Asia, thereby causing a rainy winter. | 陈曦 王闪闪 胡增运 周启鸣 胡琪 | 2018 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2018，28，9： | 7 |
| 11 | Impact of Urbanization on Low-Temperature Precipitation in Beijing during 1960–2008显示文摘Daily precipitation and temperature records at 13 stations for the period 1960–2008 were analyzed to identify climatic change and possible effects of urbanization on low-temperature precipitation [LTP, precipitation of 0.1 mm d 1occurring under a daily minimum temperature(Tmin) of 0 C] in the greater Beijing region(BJR), where a rapid process of urbanization has taken place over the last few decades. The paper provides a climatological overview of LTP in BJR. LTP contributes 61.7% to the total amount of precipitation in BJR in the cold season(November–March). There is a slight increasing trend [1.22 mm(10 yr) 1] in the amount of total precipitation for the cold season during 1960–2008. In contrast, the amount of LTP decreases by 0.6 mm(10 yr) 1. The warming rate of Tmin in BJR is 0.66 C(10 yr) 1. Correspondingly, the frequency of LTP decreases with increasing Tmin by 0.67 times per C. The seasonal frequency and amount of LTP in southeast BJR(mostly urban sites) are 17%–20% less than those in the northwestern(rural and montane sites). The intensity of LTP for the urban sites and northeastern BJR exhibited significant enhancing trends [0.18 and 0.15 mm d 1(10 yr) 1, respectively]. The frequency of slight LTP(<0.2 mm d 1) significantly decreased throughout BJR [by about 15.74%(10 yr) 1in the urban area and northeast BJR], while the contribution of the two heaviest LTP events to total LTP amount significantly increased by 3.2%(10 yr) 1. | HAN Zuoqiang YAN Zhongwei LI Zhen LIU Weidong WANG Yingchun | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，1： | 5 |
| 12 | Decreasing Trend in Summer Precipitation over the Western Sichuan Basin since the 1950s显示文摘Changing precipitation in the densely populated Sichuan basin may have a great impact on human life. This study analyzes the change in summer precipitation since 1951 over the western Sichuan basin, one of the regions of the heaviest rainfall in China, by using two datasets provided by the Chinese Meteorological Data Center. The results indicate that summer (from June to September) precipitation over the western Sichuan basin shows a significantly decreasing trend. The summer precipitation over this region has decreased by about 20% since the 1950s, with a rate of decrease of about 40 mm per decade. | LU Ri-Yu YE Hong | 2011 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2011，4，2： | 3 |
| 13 | 中国近三十年持续性农业气象灾害指标时空分布特征显示文摘基于1981—2010年中国756个标准气象台站的地面观测数据,选取表征农业气象灾害的气象要素指标,采用GIS技术揭示我国近30年主要农业气象灾害的分布现状,并对其在30年内的变化进行趋势分析。结果表明:近30年内,持续高温呈增加趋势,持续极端高温的显著增加区域出现在西北地区、东南和华南沿海区域,防止高温热浪对农作物造成伤害的重点应该放在这些区域。持续低温、春季寒冷指数和冬季积寒量均呈减小趋势,这3个指标的显著减小区域多出现在中纬度地区。中纬度地区对全球变暖的显著响应使得该区域作物的种植北界北抬,利于温带作物生长域拓宽和产量提升。2个表征水分的农业气象灾害指标中,极端降水强度在近30年内未显示出明显的变化趋势;持续无降水日数则表现出显著增加趋势。总体来看,我国受干旱灾害性天气的影响程度明显增加,有必要通过兴修水利、补充灌溉等农业措施保证农作物的用水补给。 | 韩明臣 梁玉莲 王化儒 | 2014 | 北方园艺2014，，24： | 2 |
| 14 | 基于不同灾害数据的1985—2019年南亚和东南亚洪水变化特征分析显示文摘基于紧急灾害数据库(EM-DAT)和达特茅斯洪水实验室的灾害数据,对比分析1985—2019年南亚、东南亚洪水灾害的频次、强度及造成的人口损失的变化特征,并探讨与热带气旋相关的洪水灾害的变化趋势,结果发现:近35年东南亚地区洪水发生频次总体比南亚地区多15%左右,其中与热带气旋相关的洪水发生频次,东南亚地区约是南亚地区的4倍;与热带气旋相关的洪水事件约占东南亚地区所有洪水灾害事件的20%;月际分布表明南亚地区洪水灾害集中发生在6—8月,'单峰'特征明显,而其与热带气旋相关的洪水频次呈'双峰'结构;东南亚的洪水灾害年内分布相对均匀;基于两种数据平均后的洪水趋势检验表明,近35年南亚、东南亚洪水的频次均呈显著增加趋势,而每次洪水灾害造成的损失人口数则显著减少;东南亚地区平均洪水灾害的强度略小于南亚地区,但东南亚地区洪水灾害的强度近35年有显著增加趋势。此外,基于EM-DAT数据统计的近35年东南亚和南亚洪水灾害造成的经济损失均表现出明显增加趋势。 | 王毅 刘爽 周庆亮 包红军 尹宜舟 杨琨 | 2021 | 气象2021，47，11： | 0 |
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