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| 1 | 中国南方冬季持续性温湿异常事件的分类和特征分析显示文摘利用1981—2010年中国测站逐日气温和降水异常序列,将中国南方冬季持续性异常事件分为冷湿、冷干、暖湿和暖干4类持续性异常事件,并用NCEP-DOE逐日再分析资料对各类持续性异常事件的环流特征进行了分析。结果表明,欧亚大陆中高纬度上空'北高南低'的异常环流形势使得温带急流减弱、副热带急流增强,有利于冷空气向南爆发;而中纬度地区'东高西低'的异常环流则对应西太平洋副热带高压增强北移和南支西风槽的活跃,有利于偏南风水汽输送达到中国南方地区,中国南方降水偏多。受南北异常环流的共同影响,中国南方冬季经常出现持续性异常天气,冷湿(低温雨雪冰冻)事件正是在上述两种异常环流型影响下发生的。因此,考虑与冷湿事件相联系的关键环流系统可能有助于提高中国南方冬季低温雨雪冰冻事件的预报能力。 | 田青 温敏 张人禾 高辉 | 2017 | 气象学报2017，75，5： | 9 |
| 2 | SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FOR SPRING AND AUTUMN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BY THE NCEP CFSV2显示文摘In this study, we investigate the variations of spring and autumn air temperatures in southern China(SC) and associated atmospheric circulation patterns. During the boreal spring, the SC air temperature is mainly influenced by tropical sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs). On the one hand, the El Nino SSTA pattern may induce a stronger-than-normal western Pacific subtropical high, which leads to warming in SC. On the other hand, the warm SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean may trigger anomalous Rossby wave trains, which propagate northeastward and result in anomalously high temperature in SC. During the boreal autumn, however, the SC temperature is more likely to be affected by the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, such as the wave trains forced by the North Atlantic SSTAs.The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) is able to capture the climatology of SC air temperatures during both spring and autumn. For interannual variation, the CFSv2 shows a good skill for predicting the SC temperature in spring, due to the model's good performance in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies as responses to tropical SSTAs, in spite of the overestimated relationship with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). However,the model has a poor skill for predicting the SC temperature in autumn, primarily due to the unrealistic prediction of its relationship with the ENSO. | 李婵珠 杨崧 李春晖 刘俊荷 | 2019 | Journal of Tropical Meteorology2019，25，4： | 3 |
| 3 | Impacts of Land Process on the Onset and Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System显示文摘Impacts of land models and initial land conditions(ICs) on the Asian summer monsoon,especially its onset,were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System(CFS).Two land models,the Oregon State University(OSU) land model and the NCEP,OSU,Air Force,and Hydrologic Research Laboratory(Noah) land model,were used to get parallel experiments.The experiments also used land ICs from the NCEP/Department of Energy(DOE) Global Reanalysis 2(GR2) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS).Previous studies have demonstrated that,a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon,and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass.Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model's cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns.The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in El Nin o years,compared to La Nin a years,and the Noah model performed better than the OSU model in monsoon predictions for individual years.These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer.Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula,the Indo-China peninsula,and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement.Furthermore,a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs. | Song YANG 温敏 Rongqian YANG Wayne HIGGINS 张人禾 | 2011 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2011，28，6： | 3 |
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