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| 1 | Is it growing exponentially fast? -Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics显示文摘The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics in order to generate reliable epidemic forecasts.Improved models for epidemic forecasting could be achieved by identifying signature features of epidemic growth,which could inform the design of models of disease spread and reveal important characteristics of the transmission process.In particular,it is often taken for granted that the early growth phase of different growth processes in nature follow early exponential growth dynamics.In the context of infectious disease spread,this assumption is often convenient to describe a transmission process with mass action kinetics using differential equations and generate analytic expressions and estimates of the reproduction number.In this article,we carry out a simulation study to illustrate the impact of incorrectly assuming an exponential-growth model to characterize the early phase(e.g.,3e5 disease generation intervals)of an infectious disease outbreak that follows near-exponential growth dynamics.Specifically,we assess the impact on:1)goodness of fit,2)bias on the growth parameter,and 3)the impact on short-term epidemic forecasts.Our findings indicate that devising transmission models and statistical approaches that more flexibly capture the profile of epidemic growth could lead to enhanced model fit,improved estimates of key transmission parameters,and more realistic epidemic forecasts. | Gerardo Chowell Cecile Viboud | 2016 | Infectious Disease Modelling2016，1，1： | 4 |
| 2 | Impact of influenza vaccina- tion on seasonal mortality in the us elderly population 显示文摘 | Simonsen L Reichert T A Viboud C Blackwelder W C Taylor R J Miller M A | 2005 | Arch InternMed2005，165，3： | 1 |
| 3 | Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population显示文摘 | Simonsen L Reichert TA Viboud C | 2005 | Arch Intern Med2005，165，3： | 1 |
| 4 | Synchrony,waves,and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza显示文摘 | Viboud C Rnstad O N Smith D L | 2006 | Science2006，312，5772： | 1 |
| 5 | Hand, foot, and mouthdisease in China, 2008 - 12: an epidemiological study显示文摘 | Xing W Liao Q Viboud C | 2014 | Lancet Infect Dis2014，14，4： | 1 |
| 6 | Multinational impact of the 1968 Hong Kong pandemic : evidence for a smoldering pandemic显示文摘 | Viboud C Grais R F Lafont B A | 2005 | J Infect Dis2005，192，： | 1 |
| 7 | The origin and global e- mergence of adamantane resistant A/H3N2 influenza viruses 显示文摘 | Nelson MI Simonsen L Viboud C | 2009 | Virology2009，388，2： | 1 |
| 8 | The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring ada- mantane resistance显示文摘 | Simonsen L Viboud C Grenfell BT | 2007 | Mol Biol Evol2007，24，8： | 1 |
| 9 | Risk factors ofinfluenza transmission in households 显示文摘 | Viboud C Boelle PY Cauchemez S | 2004 | Br J Gen Pract2004，54，506： | 1 |
| 10 | A bacterial type III secretion system inhibits actin polymerization to prevent pore formation in host cell membranes显示文摘 | Viboud G I Bliska J B | 2001 | EMBO J2001，20，19： | 1 |
| 11 | Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiological study 显示文摘 | Xing W Liao Q Viboud C | 2014 | The Lancet infectious diseases2014，14，4： | 1 |
| 12 | Influenza in tropical regions显示文摘 | Viboud C Wladimir JA Simonsen L etal | 2006 | PLoS Med2006，3，4： | 1 |
| 13 | Detecting signals of season- al influenza severity through age dynamics 显示文摘 | Lee EC Viboud C Simonsen L | 2015 | BMC Infect Dis2015，15，： | 1 |
| 14 | Mortality benefits of influenza vaccination in elderly people:an ongoing controversy显示文摘 | Simonsen L Taylor RJ Viboud C | 2007 | Lancet Infect Dis2007，7，10： | 1 |
| 15 | Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiologieal study 显示文摘 | Xing W Liao Q Viboud C | 2014 | Lancet Infect Dis2014，14，4： | 1 |
| 16 | Risk factors for AGEP-results of a multinational case-control study (EuroSCAR-study) 显示文摘 | Sidoroff A Dunant A Viboud C | 2007 | Br J Dermatol2007，157，5： | 1 |
| 17 | The signature features of influenza pandemics--implications for policy显示文摘 | Miller M A Viboud C Balinska M | 2009 | N Engl J Med2009，360，25： | 1 |
| 18 | The signature features of influenza pandemics-implications for policy 显示文摘 | Miller MA Viboud C Balinska M | 2009 | N Engl J Med2009，360，25： | 1 |
| 19 | Hospitalizations and deaths from diarrhea and rotavirus among children < 5 years of age in the United States, 1993 -- 2003显示文摘 | Fischer TK Viboud C Parashar U | 2007 | J Infeet Dis2007，195，8： | 1 |
| 20 | Seasonal influenza in the United States, France and Australia: transmission and prospects for control 显示文摘 | Chowell G Miller MA Viboud C | 2007 | Epidemiol Infect2007，136，6： | 1 |
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