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| 1 | Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China显示文摘Short-term climate reconstruction,i.e.,the reproduction of short-term(several decades)historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area,can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations.This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale.Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)dataset for the period of 1850–2000,the Climatic Research Unit(CRU)dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR)of China during the period of 1961–2011,we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT)and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP)in the TMR using the delta,physical scaling(SP)and artificial neural network(ANN)methods.Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999)and verification(1961–1970)periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA)method.The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables,different data sources,and/or different methods used.According to traditional performance indices,both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999.However,the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method.This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree)during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset.Overall,the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree)regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used.Therefore,the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study.The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades)regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more)assessments of regional climate change. | LI Xuemei Slobodan P SIMONOVIC LI Lanhai ZHANG Xueting QIN Qirui | 2020 | Journal of Arid Land2020，12，3： | 2 |
| 2 | Reliability programming in reservoir manage显示文摘 | Marino M A | 1982 | Water Resources Research1982，，4： | 1 |
| 3 | Reservoir systems analysis: closing gap between theory and practice 显示文摘 | Simonovic S P | 1992 | Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management1992，118，3： | 1 |
| 4 | Short term stream flow forecasting using artificial neural networks 显示文摘 | Zealand C M Burn D H Simonovic S P | 1999 | Journal Hydrology1999，214，24： | 1 |
| 5 | Inverse flood risk modeling under changing climatic conditions显示文摘 | Cunderlik J M Simonovic S P | 2007 | Hydrological Processes2007，21，： | 1 |
| 6 | Estimation of missing streamflow data using principles of chaos theory显示文摘 | Elshorbagy A Simonovic S P Panu U S | 2002 | Journal of Hydrology2002，255，： | 1 |
| 7 | An evolution program for non-linear transportation problems显示文摘 | Ilich N Simonovic S P | 2001 | Journal of Heuristics2001，7，2： | 1 |
| 8 | The implicit stochastic model for reservoir yield optimization显示文摘 | Simonovic S P | 1987 | Water Resources Research1987，23，12： | 1 |
| 9 | Spatial system dynamics:a new approach for simulation of water resources systems显示文摘 | Ahmad S Simonovic S P | | 0，，04： | 1 |
| 10 | Spatial and temporal analysis of urban flood risk assessment显示文摘 | AhmadS S and Simonovic S P | 2013 | Urban Water Journal2013，10，1： | 1 |
| 11 | The influence of carbon support porosity on the activity ofPt Ru/sibunit anode cata- lysts for methanol oxidation显示文摘 | RAO V SIMONOV P A SAVINOVA E R | 2005 | J Power Sources2005，145，2： | 1 |
| 12 | On the nature of the interaction of H2PdC14 with the surface of graphite-like carbon materals 显示文摘 | Simonov P A Romanenko A V Prosvirin P | 1997 | Carbon1997，35，1： | 1 |
| 13 | System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds显示文摘 | Li L Simonovic S P | 2002 | Hydrological Processes2002，16，13： | 1 |
| 14 | Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation显示文摘 | Slobodan P Simonovic Henry D Venema | 1992 | Journal of Hydrology1992，131，： | 1 |
| 15 | Analytical Support for Integrated Water Resources Management:A New Method for Addressing Spatial and Temporal Variability显示文摘 | NIKOLIC V V SIMONOVIC S P MILICEVIC D B | 2013 | Water Resources Management2013，27，2： | 1 |
| 16 | Estimation of Missing Streamflow Data Using Principles of Chaos Theory显示文摘 | Elshorbagy A Simonovic S P Panu U S | 2002 | Journal of Hydrology2002，255，： | 1 |
| 17 | Retrospective analysis of effectiveness of transvaginal ultrasound inthe detection ofectopic pregnancy显示文摘 | KubesováB LíbalováP SimonováV | 2013 | Ceska Gynekol2013，，： | 1 |
| 18 | Aggregation operators for soft decision making in water resources显示文摘 | Despic O Simonovic S P | 2002 | Fuzzy Sets and Systems2002，115，： | 1 |
| 19 | Computer-based Model for Flood Evacuation Emergency Planning 显示文摘 | SIMONOVIC S P AHMAD S | 2005 | Natural Haz- ards2005，34，1： | 1 |
| 20 | Comparison of fuzzy set ranking methods for implementation in water resourcesdecision-making显示文摘 | PRODANOVIC P SIMONOVIC S P | 2002 | Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering2002，29，5： | 1 |
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