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| 1 | Predicting scenic beauty of forest stands in Catalonia (North-east Spain)显示文摘森林看台,相片和虚拟现实图象的 90 幅图象的相对偏爱被因特网调查为在看台水平估计美景偏爱开发一个量的模型。从 259 个法官的一个总数的问询表获得的相对优先级价值为对用回归方法被分析明智的比较。二个模型基于看台的二个不同的组被开发。两个模型显示一个森林的优先级承受增加与一在灌木丛和树的数字的 augment,并且另外与树的吝啬的直径。在另一方面,优先级与松和小树的大数字是低的。相片代表的看台比虚拟现实图象代表的那些收到更好的优先级价值。当法官(性,国家或职业) 的背景作为另外的预言者被包括进模型时,没有重要改进被完成。 | Elena Blasco Jose Ramon Gonzalez-Olabarria Pedro Rodriguez-Veiga Timo Pukkala Osmo Kolehmainen Marc Palahi | 2009 | Journal of Forestry Research2009，20，1： | 9 |
| 2 | Optimal management of Korean pine plantations in multifunctional forestry显示文摘Korean pine is one of the most important plantation species in northeast China.Besides timber,it produces edible nuts and plantations sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.This study optimized the management of Korean pine plantations for timber production,seed production,carbon sequestration and for the joint production of multiple benefits.As the first step,models were developed for stand dynamics and seed production.These models were used in a simulation–optimization system to find optimal timing and type of thinning treatments and optimal rotation lengths.It was found that three thinnings during the rotation period were optimal.When the amount or profitability of timber production is maximized,suitable rotation lengths are 65–70 years and wood production is 5.5–6.0 m^3 ha^(-1) a^(-1).The optimal thinning regime is thinning from above.In seed production,optimal rotation lengths are over 100 years.When carbon sequestration in living biomass is maximized,stands should not be clear-cut until trees start to die due to senescence.In the joint production of multiple benefits,the optimal rotation length is 86 years if all benefits(wood,economic profits,seed,carbon sequestration) are equally important.In this management schedule,mean annual wood production is 5.5 m^2 ha^(-1) and mean annual seed yield 141 kg ha^(-1).It was concluded that it is better to produce timber and seeds in the same stands rather than assign stands to either timber production or seed production. | Xingji Jin Timo Pukkala Fengri Li Lihu Dong | 2017 | Journal of Forestry Research2017，28，5： | 8 |
| 3 | Optimizing continuous cover management of boreal forest when timber prices and tree growth are stochastic显示文摘Background: Decisions on forest management are made under risk and uncertainty because the stand development cannot be predicted exactly and future timber prices are unknown. Deterministic calculations may lead to biased advice on optimal forest management. The study optimized continuous cover management of boreal forest in a situation where tree growth, regeneration, and timber prices include uncertainty.Methods: Both anticipatory and adaptive optimization approaches were used. The adaptive approach optimized the reservation price function instead of fixed cutting years. The future prices of different timber assortments were described by cross-correlated auto-regressive models. The high variation around ingrowth model was simulated using a model that describes the cross- and autocorrelations of the regeneration results of different species and years. Tree growth was predicted with individual tree models, the predictions of which were adjusted on the basis of a climate-induced growth trend, which was stochastic. Residuals of the deterministic diameter growth model were also simulated. They consisted of random tree factors and cross- and autocorrelated temporal terms.Results: Of the analyzed factors, timber price caused most uncertainty in the calculation of the net present value of a certain management schedule. Ingrowth and climate trend were less significant sources of risk and uncertainty than tree growth. Stochastic anticipatory optimization led to more diverse post-cutting stand structures than obtained in deterministic optimization. Cutting interval was shorter when risk and uncertainty were included in the analyses.Conclusions: Adaptive optimization and management led to 6%–14% higher net present values than obtained in management that was based on anticipatory optimization. Increasing risk aversion of the forest landowner led to earlier cuttings in a mature stand. The effect of risk attitude on optimization results was small. | Timo Pukkala | 2015 | Forest Ecosystems2015，2，2： | 6 |
| 4 | Effect of species composition on ecosystem services in European boreal forest显示文摘Forest management in several boreal countries is strongly focused on conifers because they are more productive,the technical quality of their stems is better,and their wood fibers are longer as compared to broadleaves.Favoring conifers in forest management leads to simple forest structures with low resilience and diversity.Such forests are risky in the face of climate change and fluctuating timber prices.Climate change increases the vitality of many forest pests and pathogens such as Heterobasidion spp.and Ips typographus L.which attack mainly spruce.Wind damages are also increasing because of a shorter period of frozen soil to provide a firm anchorage against storms.Wind-thrown trees serve as starting points for bark beetle outbreaks.Increasing the proportion of broadleaved species might alleviate some of these problems.This study predicts the long-term(150 years) consequences of current conifer-oriented forest management in two forest areas,and compared this management with silvicultural strategies that promote mixed forests and broadleaved species.The results show that,in the absence of damages,conifer-oriented forestry would lead to 5–10% higher timber yields and carbon sequestration.The somewhat lower carbon sequestration of broadleaved forests was counteracted by their higher albedo(reflectance).Mixed and broadleafforests were better providers of recreational amenities.Species diversity was much higher in mixed stand and broadleaf-oriented silviculture at stand and forest levels.The analysis indicates that conifer-oriented forest management produces rather small and uncertain economic benefits at a high cost in resilience and diversity. | Timo Pukkala | 2018 | Journal of Forestry Research2018，29，2： | 6 |
| 5 | Integrated use of GIS, remote sensing and multi-criteria decision analysis to assess ecological land suitability in multi-functional forestry显示文摘The Zagros forests are a treasure of valuable oak forests,but they have been severely degraded from long-term misuse.Geographic information systems(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA) have been increasingly used to improve the management of vulnerable ecosystems to prevent further degradation and increase the sustainability of land use.This study presents a methodology to assess land suitability using remote sensing(RS) to obtain wall-to-wall data for the calculations,GIS to analyze the data,and MCDA to rank alternative land uses.The criteria and subcriteria affecting the suitability of land for different uses were identified and weighted using an analytic hierarchy process.Variables used as subcriteria were assessed using satellite data and other sources of information such as existing maps and field surveys.Numerical values for the subcriteria were classified,and each class was given a priority rating according to expert judgments.Based on the ratings and weights of the subcriteria,a priority map was created for each land use using the weighted linear combination method.The priority maps for different land uses were overlaid to obtain a preliminary land use map,which often indicated several simultaneous land uses for the same location.The preliminary map was further edited by removing unrealistic,mutually exclusive land-use combinations.The study tested and demonstrated the potential of integrating RS,GIS and MCDA techniques for solving complicated land allocation problems in forested regions using a scientifically sound and practical approach for efficient and sustainable allocation of forestland for different uses. | Naser Ahmadi Sani Sasan Babaie Kafaky Timo Pukkala Asadollah Mataji | 2016 | Journal of Forestry Research2016，27，5： | 5 |
| 6 | Height increment of understorey Norway spruces under different tree canopies显示文摘Background:Stands having advance regeneration of spruce are logical places to start continuous cover forestry(CCF) in fertile and mesic boreal forests.However,the development of advance regeneration is poorly known.Methods:This study used regression analysis to model the height increment of spruce understorey as a function of seedling height,site characteristics and canopy structure.Results:An admixture of pine and birch in the main canopy improves the height increment of understorey.When the stand basal area is 20 m2ha-1 height increment is twice as fast under pine and birch canopies,as compared to spruce.Height increment of understorey spruce increases with increasing seedling height.Between-stand and within-stand residual variation in the height increment of understorey spruces is high.The increment of 1/6 fastest-growing seedlings is at least 50%greater than the average.Conclusions:The results of this study help forest managers to regulate the density and species composition of the stand,so as to obtain a sufficient height development of the understorey.In pure and almost pure spruce stands,the stand basal area should be low for a good height increment of the understorey. | Olavi Laiho Timo Pukkala Erkki Lhde1 | 2014 | Forestry Studies in China2014，16，1： | 5 |
| 7 | Optimizing any-aged management of mixed boreal forest under residual basal area constraints显示文摘The current trend of forest management in many countries is reduced use of clear-felling and planting, and increased use of continuous cover management. In Finland, the new forest act of 2014 made all types of cuttings equally allowable on the condition that if the post-cutting residual stand basal area is too low, the stand must be regenerated within certain time frame. Forest landowner can freely choose between evenand uneven-aged management. This study developed a method for optimizing the timing and type of cuttings without the need to categorize the management system as either even-aged or uneven-aged. A management system that does not set any requirements on the sequence of post-cutting diameter distributions is called any-aged management. Planting or sowing was used when stand basal area fell below the required minimum basal area and the amount of advance regeneration was less than required in the regulations. When the cuttings of 200 stands managed earlier with even-aged silviculture were optimized with the developed system, final felling followed by artificial regeneration was selected for almost 50% of stands. Reduction of the minimum basal area limit greatly decreased the use of artificial regeneration but improved profitability, suggesting that the truly optimal management would be to use natural regeneration in financially mature stands. The optimal type of thinning was high thinning in 97–99 % of cases. It was calculated that the minimum basal area requirement reduced the mean net present value of the stands by 12–16 % when discount rate was 3–5 %. | Timo Pukkala Erkki L?hde Olavi Laiho | 2014 | Journal of Forestry Research2014，25，3： | 5 |
| 8 | Optimized cellular automaton for stand delineation显示文摘Forest inventories based on remote sensing often interpret stand characteristics for small raster cells instead of traditional stand compartments. This is the case for instance in the Lidar-based and multi-source forest inventories of Finland where the interpretation units are 16 m 9 16 m grid cells. Using these cells as simulation units in forest planning would lead to very large planning problems. This difficulty could be alleviated by aggregating the grid cells into larger homogeneous segments before planning calculations. This study developed a cellular automaton(CA) for aggregating grid cells into larger calculation units, which in this study were called stands. The criteria used in stand delineation were the shape and size of the stands, and homogeneity of stand attributes within the stand. The stand attributes were: main site type(upland or peatland forest), site fertility, mean tree diameter, mean tree height and stand basal area. In the CA, each cell was joined to one of its adjacent stands for several iterations,until the cells formed a compact layout of homogeneous stands. The CA had several parameters. Due to high number possible parameter combinations, particle swarm optimization was used to find the optimal set of parameter values. Parameter optimization aimed at minimizing within-stand variation and maximizing between-stand variation in stand attributes. When the CA was optimized without any restrictions for its parameters, the resulting stand delineation consisted of small and irregular stands. A clean layout of larger and compact stands was obtained when the CA parameters were optimized with constrained parameter values and so that the layout was penalized as a function of the number of small stands(<0.1 ha). However, there was within-stand variation in fertility class due to small-scale variation in the data. The stands delineated by the CA explained 66–87% of variation in stand basal area, mean tree height and mean diameter, and 41–92% of variation in the fertility class of the site. It was concluded that the CA developed in this study is a flexible new tool,which could be immediately used in forest planning. | Timo Pukkala | 2019 | Journal of Forestry Research2019，30，1： | 4 |
| 9 | Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest,the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe显示文摘Background:The Siberian moth(Dendrolimus sibiricus)(SM) defoliates several tree species from the genera Larix,Picea and Abies in northern Asia,east of the Urals.The SM is a potential invasive forest pest in Europe because Europe has several suitable host species and climatic conditions of central and northern Europe are favourable for the SM.Methods:This study developed a grid-based spatio-temporal model for simulating the spread of the SM in case it enters Europe from Russia via border stations.The spread rate was modeled as a function of the spatial distribution of host species,climatic suitability of different locations for the SM,human population density,transportation of moth-carrying material,'and flying of moths from tree to tree.Results and conclusions:The simulations showed that the SM is most likely to spread in the forests of northeast Belarus,the Baltic countries,and southern and central Finland.Climatic conditions affected the occurrence of the SM more than human population density and the coverage of suitable host species. | Timo Mykkynen Timo Pukkala | 2014 | Forestry Studies in China2014，16，2： | 2 |
| 10 | Evaluation of different approaches to individual tree growth and survival modelling using data collected at irregular intervals-a case study for Pinus patula in Kenya显示文摘Background:The minimum set of sub-models for simulating stand dynamics on an individual-tree basis consists of tree-level models for diameter increment and survival.Ingrowth model is a necessary third component in uneven-aged management.The development of this type of model set needs data from permanent plots,in which all trees have been numbered and measured at regular intervals for diameter and survival.New trees passing the ingrowth limit should also be numbered and measured.Unfortunately,few datasets meet all these requirements.The trees may not have numbers or the length of the measurement interval varies.Ingrowth trees may not have been measured,or the number tags may have disappeared causing errors in tree identification.Methods:This article discussed and demonstrated the use of an optimization-based approach to individual-tree growth modelling,which makes it possible to utilize data sets having one or several of the above deficiencies.The idea is to estimate all parameters of the sub-models of a growth simulator simultaneously in such a way that,when simulation begins from the diameter distribution at the first measurement occasion,it yields a similar ending diameter distribution as measured in the second measurement occasion.The method was applied to Pinus patula permanent sample plot data from Kenya.In this dataset,trees were correctly numbered and identified but measurement interval varied from 1 to 13 years.Two simple regression approaches were used and compared to the optimization-based model recovery approach.Results:The optimization-based approach resulted in far more accurate simulations of stand basal area and number of surviving trees than the equations fitted through regression analysis.Conclusions:The optimization-based modelling approach can be recommended for growth modelling when the modelling data have been collected at irregular measurement intervals. | Rita Juma Timo Pukkala Sergio de-Miguel Mbae Muchiri | 2014 | Forestry Studies in China2014，16，2： | 2 |
| 11 | Effect of wind damage on the habitat suitability of saproxylic species in a boreal forest landscape显示文摘Many forest-dwelling species are dependent on deadwood. Sources of deadwood include competition- and senescence-related mortality of trees, and various damages. This study described a methodology for predicting the effect of wind damage on the amount of deadwood and suitability of the forest for saproxylic species. The methodology was used in a forested boreal landscape of 360 ha to analyze the effects of wind damage on the habitat quality for 27 groups of saproxylic species differing in their requirements for the species, size and decay stage of deadwood objects. A reference plan maximized net present value (MaxNPV) while others either minimized or maximized height differences between adjacent stands. Maximization of height differences resulted in high amount of wind damage and deadwood while minimizing height differences minimized wind damage and the amount of damage-related deadwood. The fourth plan maximized the average habitat suitability index (HSI) of the 27 groups of saproxylic species. The plans were compiled with and without even-flow harvesting constraints for three 10-year periods. Maximization of height differences between adjacent stands resulted in higher HSI values than obtained in the MaxNPV plan or in the plan than minimized height differences between adjacent stands. The average HSI of shade-demanding species correlated negatively with the amount of harvested timber. No strong correlations were found for light-demanding and indifferent species. | Ane Zubizarreta-Gerendiain Timo Pukkala Heli Peltola | 2019 | Journal of Forestry Research2019，30，3： | 2 |
| 12 | Using ALS raster data in forest planning显示文摘Raster type of forest inventory data with site and growing stock variables interpreted for small squareshaped grid cells are increasingly available for forest planning.In Finland,there are two sources of this type of lattice data:the multisource national forest inventory and the inventory that is based on airborne laser scanning(ALS).In both cases,stand variables are interpreted for 16 m×16 m cells.Both data sources cover all private forests of Finland and are freely available for forest planning.This study analyzed different ways to use the ALS raster data in forest planning.The analyses were conducted for a grid of 375×375 cells(140,625 cells,of which 97,893 were productive forest).The basic alternatives were to use the cells as calculation units throughout the planning process,or aggregate the cells into segments before planning calculations.The use of cells made it necessary to use spatial optimization to aggregate cuttings and other treatments into blocks that were large enough for the practical implementation of the plan.In addition,allowing premature cuttings in a part of the cells was a prerequisite for compact treatment areas.The use of segments led to 5–9%higher growth predictions than calculations based on cells.In addition,the areas of the most common fertility classes were overestimated and the areas of rare site classes were underestimated when segments were used.The shape of the treatment blocks was more irregular in cell-based planning.Using cells as calculation units instead of segments led to 20 times longer computing time of the whole planning process than the use of segments when the number of grid cells was approximately 100,000. | Timo Pukkala | 2019 | Journal of Forestry Research2019，30，5： | 2 |
| 13 | At what carbon price forest cutting should stop显示文摘T he carbon sink of boreal forests can be increased by paying forest landowners for carbon sequestration and taxing carbon releases. The aim of the study was to analyze the eff ect of carbon pricing on optimal forest management when forests are managed for maximal discounted benefi ts from timber production and carbon payments. A0.5% random sample of all private forest stands of Finland was used in the analyses(48,842 stands). Calculations were performed for a 100-year time horizon. It was assumed that the carbon balance(diff erence between sequestrated carbon and released carbon) in the forest(trees and soil) or the carbon balance of forestry(trees, soil and wood-based products)was subsidized(positive balance) or taxed(negative balance)by 0, 50, 100 or 150 € t-1, corresponding to CO2 prices of 0,13.6, 27.3 or 40.9 € t-1, respectively. The results showed that paying forest landowners 150 € t-1 of carbon sequestrated in forests would lead to the cessation of all cuttings everywhere in Finland for at least 100 years. In the northern part of the country, a carbon price of 100 € t-1 would be enough to make the no-cutting management economically optimal.A low carbon price had the highest relative impact(value ofincreased sequestration divided by the cost of carbon payments). The benefi t/cost ratio of carbon subsidies was higher in the northern part of boreal zone than in the southern parts. Subsidizing within-forest carbon sequestration by 50 € t-1 would increase the carbon sequestration of Finnish forestry by 50%, ranging from 36%(south Finland) to 116%(north Finland). A payment of 100 € t-1 or more would increase carbon sequestration by 70%, which is nearly the maximum possible increase that can be obtained by carbon subsidies. | Timo Pukkala | 2020 | Journal of Forestry Research2020，31，3： | 2 |
| 14 | Drinking water chlorination and cancer-a historical cohort study in Finland 显示文摘 | Koivusalo M Pukkala E Vartiainen T | 1997 | Cancer Causes Control1997，8，： | 1 |
| 15 | Multiple cancer-an epidemiologic exercise in Finland 显示文摘 | Teppo L Pukkala E Saxen E | 1985 | J Natl Cancer Inst1985，75，： | 1 |
| 16 | Drinking water chlorination and cancer a historical cohort study in Finland显示文摘 | KOIVUSALO M PUKKALA E VARTIAINENE T | 1997 | Cancer Causes Control1997，8，： | 1 |
| 17 | Effect of organized 5 creening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Finland, 1963-1995: recent increal cancer incidence 显示文摘 | Anttila A Pukkala E Soderman B | 1999 | Int J Cancer1999，83，11： | 1 |
| 18 | Cancer incidence among 10, 211 airline pilots: a Nordic study显示文摘 | Pukkala E Asphoim R Auvinen A | 2003 | Aviat Space Environ M ed2003，74，7： | 1 |
| 19 | Effect of organized screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Finland, 1963-1995: recent increal cancer incidence显示文摘 | Anttila A Pukkala E Soderman B et cd | 1999 | Int J Cancer1999，83，1： | 1 |
| 20 | Thyroid cancer incidence and survival among European children and adolescents(1978-1997):report from the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System project显示文摘 | Steliarova-Foucher E Stiller CA Pukkala E | 2006 | Eur J Cancer2006，42，13： | 1 |
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