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| 1 | BMC Medicine论文摘要汇编——风险预测模型评估的不确定性对治疗决策影响的队列研究:以英国基层医疗机构心血管病患者为例显示文摘背景风险预测模型通常在临床中用于辅助决策。但是,目前很少有研究对于风险预测模型评估超出可信区间(CI)的风险评分的不确定性进行探讨。本文旨在对采用基于QRISK预测工具建立的不同风险预测模型评估的患者发病风险的不确定性进行分析。方法从英国临床研究数据库选取3 792 474例具有住院治疗数据及死亡记录、符合研究要求并可以进行心血管病(CVD)风险评估的患者。采用建立QRISK 2和QRISK 3模型的方法建立风险预测模型(模型A^F),然后校正可能导致各模型预测能力差异的因素以及填补缺失数据后再进行预测。比较各模型的十年风险评分以及一般性能。结果不同模型评估患者CVD风险结果有显著差异。模型A评估男性CVD风险95%CI为(4.4%,16.3%)、女性为(4.6%,15.8%),模型F评估患者CVD风险95%CI为(9%,10%)。一般性能指标评价各模型预测能力相似(Harrell’s C=0.86~0.87)。造成各模型风险预测能力差异最大的因素为CVD发病长期趋势,校正此因素后,女性发病风险预测HR差异可降低0.96(0.95,0.96),男性可降低0.96(0.96,0.96)。当使用模型对英国人群进行风险评估时,有380万人可能被重新归类到符合使用他汀类药物的患者人群。本研究的一个重要局限性是没有纳入CPRD数据库中缺失的可能因素,如饮食或体育活动等。结论基于日常资料对患者CVD发病风险的预测结果因模型而异。尽管各模型预测结果可存在很大的差异,但普通性能指标评价各模型的预测能力相似。在做临床决策时,还应考虑临床评估结果和其他风险因素。对CVD发病长期趋势因素,应做进一步研究。 | 本刊编辑部(整理) PATE A EMSLEY R ASHCROFT D M | 2019 | 中国全科医学2019，22，29： | 2 |
| 2 | A generalized performance prediction method for adiabatic capillary tubes 显示文摘 | Bittle R R Wolf D A Pate M B | 1998 | Int J of HVAC&R Research1998，4，1： | 1 |
| 3 | Moderate intensity exercise training improves cardiorespiratory fitness in women 显示文摘 | BRANCH J D PATE R R BOURQUE S P | 2000 | J Women''s Health Gender Based Med2000，9，1： | 1 |
| 4 | Adiabatic capillary tube performance with alternative refrigerants 显示文摘 | Wolf D A Bittle R R Pate M B | 1995 | ASHRAE Transactions1995，101，： | 1 |
| 5 | Effects of propylene glycol drenching on energy balance,plasma glucose,plasma insulin,ovarian function and conception in dairy cows显示文摘 | Miyoshi S Pate J L Palmquist D L | | 0，，01： | 1 |
| 6 | Implant removal aftersubmuscular plating for pediatric femur fractures显示文摘 | Pate O Hedequist D Leong N | 2009 | J Pedi- atr Orthop2009，29，7： | 1 |
| 7 | Cochlear implantation in the congenitally malformed ear显示文摘 | MOLTER D W PATE B R Jr MCELVEEN J T Jr | 1993 | Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg1993，108，： | 1 |
| 8 | Mineral nutrition and transport in xylem and phloem of Banksia prionotes (Proteaceae), a tree with dimorphic root morphology显示文摘 | Jeschke W D Pate J S | 1995 | Journal of Experimental Botany1995，46，： | 1 |
| 9 | Stock Return Predictability:The Role of Monetary Policy显示文摘 | Patelis A D | | 0，，05： | 1 |
| 10 | Effect of the degree of soft and hard segment ordering on the morphology and mechanical behavior of semicrystalline segmented polyurethanes 显示文摘 | LaShanda T James Korley Brian D Pate | 2006 | Polymer2006，，47： | 1 |
| 11 | Gender differences in physical activity and determinants of physical activity in fifth grade children显示文摘 | Trost S G Pate R R Dowda M Saunders R Ward D S Felton G | 1996 | Journal of School Health1996，66，4： | 1 |
| 12 | Pliocene stable isotope stratigraphy of ODP site 846 显示文摘 | Shacklelon N J Hall M A Pate D | 1995 | Proceedings of the ocean Drilling Program Scientific Results1995，138，： | 1 |
| 13 | Effects of propylene glycoldrenching on energy balance,plasma glucose,plasma insulin,o-varian function and conception in dairy cows显示文摘 | Miyoshi S Pate J L Palmquist D L | 2001 | Anim ReprodSci2001，68，1： | 1 |
| 14 | Analysis of pesticide residues in lettuce by large volume-difficult matrix introduction-gas chromatography-time of flight-mass spectrometry 显示文摘 | Pate K Fussel R J Goodal D M | 2003 | Analyst2003，128，10： | 1 |
| 15 | Multiple independent emer- gences of type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses during a large outbreak in northern Nigeria显示文摘 | Burns C C Shaw J Jorba J Bukbuk D Adu F Gumede N Pate M A Abanida E A Gasasira A Iber J Chen Q Vincent A Chenoweth P Henderson E Wannemuehler K Naeem A Umarni R N Nishimura Y Shimizu H Baba M Adeniji A Williams A J Kil- patrick D R Oberste M S Wassilak S G Tomori O Pallansch M A Kew O | 2013 | J Virol2013，87，9： | 1 |
| 16 | Wireless value-added services in exhibition shows显示文摘 | Pateli A G Giaglis G M Spinellis D D | 2006 | Int J Mobile Communica- tions2006，4，2： | 1 |
| 17 | Use of soil enzyme activities to monitor soil quality in natural and improved fallows in semiarid tropical regions显示文摘 | Badiane N N Y Chotte J L Pate E Masse D Rouland C | 2001 | Applied Soil Ecology2001，18，3： | 1 |
| 18 | Evidence for inflammation in asthma显示文摘 | HOGG J C JAMES A L PATE P D | 1991 | Am Rev Respir Dis1991，143，5： | 1 |
| 19 | Racial Ddifferences in Self-reported Healthcare Seeking and Treatment for Urinary Incontinence in Community-dwelling Women from the EPI Study显示文摘 | Berger M B Pate] D A Miller J M | 2011 | Neurourology and Urodynamics2011，30，8： | 1 |
| 20 | A review of the national physical activity plans of six countries 显示文摘 | Bornstein D B Pate R R Pratt M | 2009 | Journal of Physi- cal Activity and Health2009，6，2： | 1 |
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