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| 1 | Source mechanism of strong aftershocks (M_s≥5.6) of the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake and the implication for seismotectonics显示文摘Dozens of >M5, hundreds of >M4, and much more >M3 aftershocks occurred after the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake, which were well recorded by permanent and portable seismic stations. After relocated with P arrival, the >M3 aftershocks show two trends of distribution, with most of the aftershocks located along the north-east strike consistent with Longmenshan fault system, yet there is a north-west trend around the epicenter. It seems that substantially more aftershocks occur in regions with crystalline bedrocks. Then we collected waveform data from National Digital Seismograph Network and regional seismograph network of China, and employed 'Cut and Paste' method to obtain focal mechanisms and depths of the big aftershocks (M≥5.6). While most of those aftershocks show thrust mechanism, there are some strike slip earthquakes in the northern-most end of the rupture. Focal mechanisms show that the events located on the southern part of central Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (BY) are mainly thrust earthquakes, which is consistent with initial mechanism of the main shock rupture. In the north part the aftershocks along the BY are also dominated by thrust slip, which is quite different from the right slip rupture of the main shock. Around Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault, the focal mechanisms are dominated by right-slip rupture with large depths (~18 km). So we suspected that in the north part the main shock might rupture on two faults: Beichuan Fault and Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault. The complex pattern of aftershock mechanisms argues for presence of a complicated fault system in the Longmenshan area. | ZHENG Yong1,2,MA HongSheng3,Lü Jian4,NI SiDao5,LI YingChun6 & WEI ShengJi2 1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430077,China 2 Institute of Geophysics,Chinese Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100086,China 3 Institute of Earthquake Science,Chinese Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100086,China 4 Earthquake Administration of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330039,China 5 School of Earth and Space Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China 6 Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210014,China | 2009 | Science China Earth Sciences2009，52，6： | 100 |
| 2 | Remarks on Urban Spatial Growth Management Research | CHEN Jinfu,Professor,Director,Teaching & Research Office on Urban Planning,Architecture and Urban Planning School,Huazhong University of Science and Technology PhD Candidate,College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,P.R.China.REN Lijuan,Postgraduate,Architecture and Urban Planning School,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,P.R.China.YU Cheng,Postgraduate,Architecture and Urban Planning School,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,P.R.China.XU Xiaolei,Postgraduate,Architecture and Urban Planning School,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,P.R.China.LI Xinyan,Lecturer,Architecture and Urban Planning School,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,P.R.China. | 2010 | China City Planning Review2010，19，2： | 180 |
| 3 | 2001~2010年体育改革与发展纲要显示文摘为实现我国的现代化建设目标 ,充分发挥体育在提高人民物质文化生活中的作用。国家体育总局经过充分调研 ,经过 1999年、2 0 0 0年全国体育工作会议修改 ,制定《2 0 0 1~ 2 0 10年体育改革与发展纲要》,纲要明确了 2 1世纪前10年我国体育的指导思想、基本战略和奋斗目标。提出 :10年内 ,大众体育普及程度明显提高 ,体育人口达总人口的40 %左右 ;竞技体育保持亚洲领先 ,夏季奥运会前列 ,实现冬季奥运会零的突破 ;体育产业初具规模等。《纲要》是我国体育今后 | The State Sport General Administration (December 15,2000) | 2001 | 体育科学2001，21，3： | 147 |
| 4 | 1997年中国成年人体质监测公报显示文摘监测未用随机整群取样方法,监测对象是 19个省、区、市的年龄为 18~60岁(女 55岁)的公民,最终参加运算的样本为 105 328人,获得 3 007 142个有效数据。主要结果为:男子平均身高为169.2 cm,女子为 158.6 cm;男子平均体重为 66.5 kg,女子为 56.8 kg。50岁前体重、相对体重随年龄增大,50岁后略减;北方人身材高大,南方人身材瘦小;东部地区人群体质好于中、西部。中国成年人体质方面存在的问题主要是有28.6%的人未达测定合格标准、开始向肥胖型发展等。提出改善中国成年人体质状况的主要措施主要有加强宣传,提高认识,扩大监测,吸引成年人参加体育活动等。 | The State Sport General Administration of China | 1999 | 体育科学1999，19，1： | 53 |
| 5 | LAGFD-WAM numerical wave model-Ⅰ. Basic physical model显示文摘The LAGFD-WAM wave model is a third generation wave model. In the present paper the physical aspect of the model was shown in great detail including energy spectrum balance equation, complicated characteristics equations and source functions. | Yuan Yeli, Hua Feng, Pan Zengdi Sun Letao First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266003, China | 1991 | Acta Oceanologica Sinica1991，10，4： | 46 |
| 6 | The deformation pattern and fault rate in the Tianshan Mountains inferred from GPS observations显示文摘Based on GPS measurements conducted from 1992 to 2006, we present the current crustal movement velocity field for approximately 400 sites in the Tianshan Mountains and their adjacent areas, and estimate slip rates on the major faults using a 2-D elastic dislocation model. Our studies show slip rates within the range of 1―4 mm/a on the NW-SE trending strike-slip faults (such as Talas-Fergana fault) in the Tianshan Mountains. We also found the slip rates on the approximately WE-SN trending gently-dipping detachment fault vary from 10―13 mm/a for the southwest Tianshan Mountains to 2―5 mm/a for the eastern Tianshan Mountains, and to 6―12 mm/a for the Kyrgrz Tianshan. The GPS velocity field reveals that the total convergence is not uniformly distributed across the Tianshan Mountains, with 80%―90% of the N-S shortening absorbed along the southern and northern edges, and relatively little deformation accommodated within the interior. This first-order feature of strain pattern is explained best by underthrusting of adjacent blocks beneath the Tianshan Mountains along a basal detachment fault. We found the occurrence of historical M7―8 earthquakes somewhere in the locked ramp that connects the creeping and locking segments of the detachment, thereby resulting in elastic strain concentration and accumulation around it. The elastic strain confined in the upper crustal layer above the detachment ultimately releases through infrequent great earthquakes in the Tianshan Mountains, resulting in considerable folding and faulting at their margins. The Tianshan Mountains propagated outward and rose progressively as a wedge-shaped block. | YANG ShaoMin1,2, LI Jie1,3 & WANG Qi2,1 1 Research Center of Space Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China 2 Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China 3 Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China | 2008 | Science China Earth Sciences2008，51，8： | 43 |
| 7 | Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific显示文摘The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa. | ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 2 National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China | 2008 | Science China Earth Sciences2008，51，3： | 40 |
| 8 | 第六次全国森林资源清查及森林资源状况显示文摘在系统分析第六次(1999年-2003年)森林资源连续清查总体情况的基础上,总结了此次清查的五个特点;从森林资源结构、资源数量、区域分布、资源发展变化等方面揭示了此次资源清查的最新成果;剖析了森林资源发展中存在的问题,并提出了相应措施。清查结果显示:全国林业用地面积2.85亿hm^2,森林面积1.75亿hm^2,森林覆盖率18.21%,森林蓄积量124、56亿m^3;人工林面积0.53亿hm^2,蓄积15.05亿m^3。 | Department of Forest Resources Management,State Forestry Administration | 2005 | 绿色中国(理论版)2005，，01M： | 32 |
| 9 | 2005年全国治超工作要点显示文摘 | Issued by Ministry of Communications of the People′s Republic of China,T he Ministry of Public Security of the People′s Republic of China,National Development and Reform Comm ission,the Ministry of Propaganda of the CPC Central Committee,General Administration of Qu ality Supervision Inspection and Quarantine of the PRC,State Administration of Work Safety,State Administration for Industry & Commerce,China Legislative | 2005 | 交通标准化2005，，5： | 34 |
| 10 | Mechanism of the Spring Persistent Rains over southeastern China显示文摘The Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) in the areas to the south of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River or over southeastern China (SEC) is a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon in East Asia. This study reveals a possible mechanism responsible for the climatic cause of SPR formation through climatic mean data analysis and sensitive numerical model experiments. SEC is located at the down-stream of the southwesterly velocity center (SWVC) which lies on the southeastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a result, there are strong southwesterly wind velocity convergence and moisture con-vergence over SEC. This is the immediate climatic cause of SPR formation. In spring, the seasonal evolution of the southwesterly velocity consists with the surface sensible heating over southeastern TP, indicating that the formation of SPR is related to not only the southwesterly wind of mechanical de-flected flow of TP, but also the southwesterly wind of thermal-forced cyclonic low circulation. Sensitive numerical experiments demonstrate that, without TP, both SWVC and the SPR rain belt will disappear. The southwesterly wind velocity increases almost linearly with the amount of the total diabatic heating with TP rising. Therefore, SWVC is the result of the mechanical forcing and thermal forcing of TP. All these strongly suggest that the presence of TP plays a primary role in the climatic formation of SPR. | WAN RiJin1,2,3 & WU GuoXiong1 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Mechanicals (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Guangdong Climate and Agrometeorology Center, Guangzhou 510080, China 3 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meterological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China | 2007 | Science China Earth Sciences2007，50，1： | 34 |
| 11 | Two types of changes in apparent resistivity in earthquake prediction显示文摘Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method of earthquake (EQ) prediction. The AR changes of the first type (CFT) are considered to be precursors related to earthquakes (EQs); these appear mostly in the medium-term period before EQs and in the short-term period preceding EQs. The changes of the second type (CST) are characterized by a turning anomaly of a long-trend AR variation or the drastically descending/ascending anomaly superimposed on such a variation; these appear synchronously in large areas, such as the Chinese mainland, and northern and northwestern China, ect. Their spatio-temporal clusters correspond well to high seismicities in the areas and distant great EQs around the Chinese mainland. Based on the behaviors of the two types of changes, the AR changes observed prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan EQ of 2008 are studied. The results show that in the medium-term period before the EQ, noticeable anomalies appeared synchronously at four stations around the Songpan-Ganzi active block, but only weak upward changes were observed in the short-term period preceding the EQ, which caused the prediction of the imminent EQ to fail. | DU XueBin1,2 1Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China 2Lanzhou Base of Earthquake Science Institute, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China | 2011 | Science China Earth Sciences2011，54，1： | 27 |
| 12 | Atmospheric correction for China's coastal water colorremote sensing显示文摘The space satellite programs, such as CZCS/Nimbus - 7, VHRSR/FY - 1, OCFS/ ADEOS and SeaWiFS/SeaStar, have demonstrated and proven that remote sensing is a powerful tool for understanding the spatial and temporal ocean color distribution. In general, there are two main techni-cal keys in the processing ocean color satellite data. They are the atmospheric correction and the inver-sion of water-leaving radiance into water constituents (such as chlorophyll, suspended material and yel low substance) quantitatively. The SeaWiFS (sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor) atmospheric correc-tion algorithm for China’s coastal waters is discussed. First, the major advantages of SeaWiFS are introduced. Second, in view of the problems of the SeaDAS algorithm applying in China’ s coastal waters, the local atmospheric correction algorithms are discussed and developed. Finally, the advantages of the local algorithms are presented by the compari-son of the results from two different algorithms. | PanDelu, Mao Zhihua 1. Laboratory of Ocean Dynamic Processes and Satellite Oceanography of State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China 2. Laboratory of Submarine Geosciences of State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China | 2001 | Acta Oceanologica Sinica2001，20，3： | 26 |
| 13 | The characteristics of atmospheric CO_2 concentration variation of four national background stations in China显示文摘Atmospheric carbon dioxide is an important kind of greenhouse gas which influences global temperature. Its concentration variation could indicate the distribution of human and natural activities in various regions. Through the non-dispersive infrared method, flask sampling of atmospheric CO2 concen- tration was measured weekly at four national background stations including Waliguan, Shangdianzi, Lin’an, and Longfengshan. Based on the data collected from September 2006 to August 2007, along with the Waliguan station’s experience on in situ observational data processing, the selection methods for sampling data through the atmospheric background CO2 concentration analysis were preliminarily discussed. On the basis of this result, the variation features of the four typical regions’ atmospheric background CO2 concentration was analyzed for the first time. The results show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration at Waliguan, Shangdianzi, Lin’an, and Longfengshan is 383.5, 385.9, 387.8, and 384.3 ppm, respectively. During the research period, CO2 concentration at the Waliguan station changed slightly. However, the CO2 concentration changed sharply at the Shangdianzi and the Lin’an stations due to the great influence of human activities in the Jingjinji and the Changjiang Delta economic zones, and changed regularly with seasons at Longfengshan station under dual influences of human activities and plant photosynthesis. The results from this study can lay the foundation for more profound studies on atmospheric CO2 concentration level of different areas in China, and could be used to improve the understanding of carbon source and sink distribution. | LIU LiXin, ZHOU LingXi, ZHANG XiaoChun, WEN Min, ZHANG Fang, YAO Bo & FANG ShuangXi Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services (CAWAS), Chinese Academy of Meteoro- logical Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China | 2009 | Science China Earth Sciences2009，52，11： | 26 |
| 14 | Average slip rate, earthquake rupturing segmentation and recurrence behavior on the Litang fault zone, western Sichuan Province, China显示文摘The Litang fault zone (LFZ) is an active fault zone within the northwestern Sichuan sub-block. Field investigation reveals new evidence for its late Quaternary offset, neoteric earthquake ruptures and surface-rupturing segmentation, from which long-term slip-rates, char-acteristic earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals on the fault zone are estimated. This study shows that the LFZ consists of three subordinate faults, and they are the northern Maoyaba fault, Litang fault and Kangga-Dewu fault, respectively. All of them are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip with reverse dip-slip component on different segments. Based on offset landforms and ages of relevant deposits collected from seven sites, it is estimated that the average left-lateral slip-rate on the LFZ reaches 4.0±1.0 mm/a in the past 14 ka BP, and vertical (reverse) dip-slip rate in the range of 0.1―1.8 mm/a. Three subordinate faults are independent earthquake rup-turing segments, on which the maximum moment magnitude of the characteristic earthquakes is estimated to be 7.0―7.3, and their average recurrence interval to be 500―1000 a. The latest earthquake ruptures occurred 119±2 years ago on the northern Maoyaba fault, about 1890 AD on the Litang fault, and in 1948 AD on the Kangga-Dewu fault, and this may indicate a unidirectional migration for surface rupturing earthquakes along the Litang fault zone, related to stress trigger-ing between the segments. | XU Xiwei1, WEN Xueze2, YU Guihua1, ZHENG Rongzhang1, LUO Haiyuan2 & ZHENG Bin2 1. Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China 2. Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China | 2005 | Science China Earth Sciences2005，48，8： | 23 |
| 15 | Reconstructing mean maximum temperature of growing season from the maximum density of the Schrenk Spruce in Yili,Xinjiang,China显示文摘To study the historical temperature variation in Yili of Xinjiang,the tree-ring chronologies of maximum density(MXD) and tree-ring width(TRW) were established with the Schrenk Spruce(Picea schrenkiana Fisch.et Mey) collected from six sites to analyze the characteristics and ability of response to climate change.The results suggest that the MXD chronology of the Schrenk Spruce from different sampling sites responded to climate change well and were positively correlated with the mean maximum temperature and the mean temperature from April to August in the study area.The mean maximum temperature anomaly from April to August,spanning the years from 1848 to 2000,was reconstructed by three MXD chronologies which were selected by stepwise regression.The reconstructed function was stable and explained 56.2% of the variance.The reconstructed results indicated a cold span of 153 years in spring and summer from the beginning of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1970s in the Yili valley.No strongly increasing tendency was detected in the mean maximum temperature anomaly from April to August during this reconstructed period. | CHEN Jin1,2,3,WANG LiLi1,4,5,ZHU HaiFeng1 & WU Pu1 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China 3 Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100044,China 4 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China 5 Institute of Desert and Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,ürümqi 830002,China | 2009 | Chinese Science Bulletin2009，54，13： | 21 |
| 16 | Deep tectonic setting of the 2008 Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake in southwestern China―Joint analysis of teleseismic P-wave receiver functions and Bouguer gravity anomalies显示文摘Teleseismic P-wave receiver functions at 20 broadband seismic stations in the Longmenshan fault zone (LMFZ) and its vicinity were extracted, and the crustal thickness and the P- and S-wave velocity ratio were calculated by use of the H-k stacking algorithm. With the results as constraints, the S-wave ve-locity structures beneath each station were determined by the inversion of receiver functions. The crustal structure of the Rear-range zone is similar to that of the Songpan-Garze Block, whereas the velocity structure of the Fore-range zone resembles that of Sichuan Basin, implying that the Central Principal Fault of LMFZ is the boundary between the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Yangtze Block. Lower velocity zone exists in lower crust of the Songpan-Garze Block and the central-southern seg-ment of the Rear-range zone, which facilitates the detachment of the material in upper and middle crust. Joint analysis of the receiver functions and the Bouguer gravity anomalies supports the thesis on the detachment-thrust mode of the LMFZ. A double-detachment pattern is suggested to the tectonic setting in the Songpan-Garze Block. The upper detachment occurs at the depth of 10-15 km, and represents a high-temperature ductile shear zone. There is a lower detachment at the depth of about 30 km, below which the lower crust flow exists in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Interpretation of the Bouguer gravity anomalies indicates that the Sichuan Basin is of higher density in upper and middle crust in compari-son with that of the Songpan-Garze Block. The LMFZ with higher density is the result from the thrusting of the Songpan-Garze Block over the Sichuan Basin. In the lower crust, higher P velocity and higher density in the Sichuan Basin are related to more rigid material, while lower S velocity and lower density in the Songpan-Garze Block are related to the softened and weakened material. The higher density block beneath the Sichuan Basin obstructs the eastward flow of lower crustal material from the Tibetan Plateau, which is driven by the compression of northward movement of Indian Plate. The eastward movement of upper and middle crustal material is also obstructed by the rigid Yangtze Block, resulting in the stress concentrated and accumulated along the LMFZ. When the stress releases sharply, the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurs. | LOU Hai1, WANG ChunYong1, L ZhiYong2, YAO ZhiXiang1, DAI ShiGui2 & YOU HuiChuan1 1 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China 2 Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China | 2009 | Science China Earth Sciences2009，52，2： | 21 |
| 17 | 国内外药品GMP对比调研报告(一)显示文摘根据国家食品药品监督管理局部署,局药品安全监管司组织药品认证管理中心及有关单位和专家,翻译查阅了世界卫生组织(WHO)、美国食品药品管理局(US-FDA)、欧盟(EU)、日本(JAP)、人用药品注册技术要求国际协调会(ICH)、药品检查条约/合作计划组织(PIC/S)等国家和组织的药品GMP管理法规及相关资料,以我国药品GMP为背景,在管理体系和药品GMP具体内容上进行了对比调研。对比调研过程中,座谈听取了国内药品生产企业和有关专家关于实施药品GMP、接受国外药品GMP认证检查的经验和体会。从而使对比调研工作获得了较全面、系统和有价值的资料。由于整个对比调研工作只限于翻译查阅资料及座谈研讨,缺乏对国外药品GMP管理和认证检查的实地考察,以及搜索信息量所限,可能存在不确之处;报告中所提建议也未经论证和征求有关方面的意见,不妥之处,敬请谅解。 | State Food And Drug Administration Center For Certification Of Drug(Beijing 100061) | 2008 | 中国药事2008，22，10： | 19 |
| 18 | Relationships between δ ^(18)O in summer precipitation and temperature and moisture trajectories at Muztagata, western China显示文摘Based on summer observations of stable isotope of precipitation at Muztagata, western China, during 2002―2003, this paper presents the relationship between δ 18O in precipitation and air temperature, and discusses the effect of moisture transport on δ 18O in precipitation. Results show that air temperature correlates positively with δ 18O in precipitation, and the temperature effect controls the δ 18O of precipitation in this area. The Muztagata region exhibits high δ 18O values in summer precipi-tation, similar to those shown at stations in adjacent regions. According to the results of our model set up to trace the moisture trajectories, the westerlies and local moisture circulation contribute to varia-tions of oxygen isotopes in precipitation. In addition, the impacts of the moisture transport distance, the moisture transport level, and the incursion of the polar air mass also influence the variations of δ 18O in precipitation. The moisture origins and transport mechanisms also contribute to the variation of δ 18O in precipitation at Muztagata. | YU Wusheng1,2, YAO Tandong1,2, TIAN Lide1,2, LI Zhen2, SUN Weizhen2 & WANG Yu2 1. Laboratory of Environment and Process on Tibetan Plateau, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China 2. Key Laboratory of Cryosphere and Environment, Jointly Established by Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engi-neering Research Institute and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China | 2006 | Science China Earth Sciences2006，49，1： | 18 |
| 19 | Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach显示文摘A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation. | FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, China | 2009 | Science China Earth Sciences2009，52，4： | 18 |
| 20 | Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction显示文摘In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric. | REN HongLi1,2? & CHOU JiFan1 1 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China | 2007 | Science China Earth Sciences2007，50，10： | 17 |
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